{"id":1379,"date":"2011-10-17T22:32:56","date_gmt":"2011-10-18T02:32:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=1379"},"modified":"2011-10-17T22:32:56","modified_gmt":"2011-10-18T02:32:56","slug":"us-stock-market-bulls-vs-bears-historians-vs-risk-takers-the-big-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/17\/us-stock-market-bulls-vs-bears-historians-vs-risk-takers-the-big-picture\/","title":{"rendered":"US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Very negative pictures can be painted on the outcomes of the European sovereign debt crisis. Other negatives can point to more deteriorating factors in the United States, such as the weak housing market and the high unemployment rate. In our view, all of these factors are known. They have been established for some time. They have been mixed into the pricing expectations in markets. In essence, they are \u201cold news\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ritholtz.com\/blog\/2011\/10\/us-stock-market-bulls-vs-bears-historians-vs-risk-takers\/?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29\">US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>I have heard this often of late: &#8220;all of these risks are already priced into the market&#8221;. Isn&#8217;t that the same old Efficient Market Hypothesis that failed so spectacularly? The market will price the risk, but there is no guarantee that the risk is correctly calculated. Look no further than <a title=\"S&amp;P 500 Monthly Chart\" href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2011\/10\/17\/1340\/\" target=\"_blank\">June 2007 to May 2008<\/a> for an example of how the market priced risk at the start of the sub-prime crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Very negative pictures can be painted on the outcomes of the European sovereign debt crisis. Other negatives can point to more deteriorating factors in the United States, such as the weak housing market and the high unemployment rate. In our view, all of these factors are known. They have been established for some time. They &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/17\/us-stock-market-bulls-vs-bears-historians-vs-risk-takers-the-big-picture\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[1204,3276],"class_list":["post-1379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-efficient-market-hypothesis","tag-sub-prime-crisis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Very negative pictures can be painted on the outcomes of the European sovereign debt crisis. Other negatives can point to more deteriorating factors in the United States, such as the weak housing market and the high unemployment rate. In our view, all of these factors are known. They have been established for some time. 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Bears","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 27, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"There are plenty of opposing views on the future direction of stocks at present. To ensure that we do not fall into the trap of confirmation bias (searching for evidence to support an existing opinion), we attempt to evaluate the evidence supporting both sides. Bulls Paul Gable gives a bullish\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/MyT_k3KnEO4\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1135,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/04\/bull-versus-bear-is-dead-macrobusiness-com-au\/","url_meta":{"origin":1379,"position":1},"title":"Bull versus bear is dead &#8211; macrobusiness.com.au","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 4, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"As the S&P500 rocketed into the close this morning on yet another European bailout rumour, it occurred to me just how broken the equity market is right now. We are trapped in bear market dynamics of grinding sell-offs punctuated by explosive short-covering rallies with no end in sight. ..... Days\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63533,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/31\/asx-market-snapshot-10\/","url_meta":{"origin":1379,"position":2},"title":"ASX Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 31, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-16-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-16-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-16-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14669,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/12\/factors-that-could-derail-equity-markets-bob-doll\/","url_meta":{"origin":1379,"position":3},"title":"Factors that Could Derail Equity Markets | Bob Doll","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 12, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Bob Doll at Nuveen Investments: ....Although we have a generally positive view toward the economy, earnings and equity markets, we think it is worth pointing out some possible risks given how quickly and how far markets have moved higher over the past month. To us, the main risk to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12002,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/01\/sources-of-stock-market-fluctuations-new-evidence-vox\/","url_meta":{"origin":1379,"position":4},"title":"Sources of stock-market fluctuations: New evidence | VOX","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 1, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting work by Dan Greenwald, Martin Lettau and Sydney Ludvigson on what moves the market. There is little mystery that the real value of the stock market drifts upward over long periods in a largely predictable way as productivity (driven by technological progress) improves. This same deterministic trend has also\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Profits and Labor Costs as a percentage of Net Value Added","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-profits-laborcosts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-profits-laborcosts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-profits-laborcosts.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60218,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/","url_meta":{"origin":1379,"position":5},"title":"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator remains at 60%, with the two yield-curve indicators signaling Risk-off: The Fed is cutting interest rates which usually flags a bear market.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1379","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1379"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1379\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1379"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1379"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1379"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}