{"id":1379,"date":"2011-10-17T22:32:56","date_gmt":"2011-10-18T02:32:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=1379"},"modified":"2011-10-17T22:32:56","modified_gmt":"2011-10-18T02:32:56","slug":"us-stock-market-bulls-vs-bears-historians-vs-risk-takers-the-big-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/17\/us-stock-market-bulls-vs-bears-historians-vs-risk-takers-the-big-picture\/","title":{"rendered":"US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Very negative pictures can be painted on the outcomes of the European sovereign debt crisis. Other negatives can point to more deteriorating factors in the United States, such as the weak housing market and the high unemployment rate. In our view, all of these factors are known. They have been established for some time. They have been mixed into the pricing expectations in markets. In essence, they are \u201cold news\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ritholtz.com\/blog\/2011\/10\/us-stock-market-bulls-vs-bears-historians-vs-risk-takers\/?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29\">US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>I have heard this often of late: &#8220;all of these risks are already priced into the market&#8221;. Isn&#8217;t that the same old Efficient Market Hypothesis that failed so spectacularly? The market will price the risk, but there is no guarantee that the risk is correctly calculated. Look no further than <a title=\"S&amp;P 500 Monthly Chart\" href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2011\/10\/17\/1340\/\" target=\"_blank\">June 2007 to May 2008<\/a> for an example of how the market priced risk at the start of the sub-prime crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Very negative pictures can be painted on the outcomes of the European sovereign debt crisis. Other negatives can point to more deteriorating factors in the United States, such as the weak housing market and the high unemployment rate. In our view, all of these factors are known. They have been established for some time. They &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/17\/us-stock-market-bulls-vs-bears-historians-vs-risk-takers-the-big-picture\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[1204,3276],"class_list":["post-1379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-efficient-market-hypothesis","tag-sub-prime-crisis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Very negative pictures can be painted on the outcomes of the European sovereign debt crisis. Other negatives can point to more deteriorating factors in the United States, such as the weak housing market and the high unemployment rate. In our view, all of these factors are known. They have been established for some time. 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Bears","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 27, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"There are plenty of opposing views on the future direction of stocks at present. To ensure that we do not fall into the trap of confirmation bias (searching for evidence to support an existing opinion), we attempt to evaluate the evidence supporting both sides. Bulls Paul Gable gives a bullish\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/MyT_k3KnEO4\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1135,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/04\/bull-versus-bear-is-dead-macrobusiness-com-au\/","url_meta":{"origin":1379,"position":1},"title":"Bull versus bear is dead &#8211; macrobusiness.com.au","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 4, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"As the S&P500 rocketed into the close this morning on yet another European bailout rumour, it occurred to me just how broken the equity market is right now. We are trapped in bear market dynamics of grinding sell-offs punctuated by explosive short-covering rallies with no end in sight. ..... Days\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63533,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/31\/asx-market-snapshot-10\/","url_meta":{"origin":1379,"position":2},"title":"ASX Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 31, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-16-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-16-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-16-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14669,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/12\/factors-that-could-derail-equity-markets-bob-doll\/","url_meta":{"origin":1379,"position":3},"title":"Factors that Could Derail Equity Markets | Bob Doll","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 12, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Bob Doll at Nuveen Investments: ....Although we have a generally positive view toward the economy, earnings and equity markets, we think it is worth pointing out some possible risks given how quickly and how far markets have moved higher over the past month. To us, the main risk to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61631,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/10\/us-weekly-market-indicators-5\/","url_meta":{"origin":1379,"position":4},"title":"US Weekly Market Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 10, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market Our Bull\/Bear Market indicator remained at 60% this week, with two of the five leading indicators signaling risk-off: We have revised our Heavy Truck Sales indicator to use a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58118,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot\/","url_meta":{"origin":1379,"position":5},"title":"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The above two dials provide a snapshot of our market view and attitude to risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator is helpful for market timing. It indicates when to change market allocation from Risk-On (e.g. growth stocks) to Risk-Off (e.g. gold or A-grade bonds). Stock Pricing Stock Pricing compares\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1379","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1379"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1379\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1379"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1379"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1379"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}