{"id":13789,"date":"2015-10-26T02:23:57","date_gmt":"2015-10-26T02:23:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1239"},"modified":"2015-10-26T02:23:57","modified_gmt":"2015-10-26T02:23:57","slug":"low-inflation-and-a-stronger-dollar-indicate-weak-gold-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/26\/low-inflation-and-a-stronger-dollar-indicate-weak-gold-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Low inflation and a stronger dollar indicate weak gold"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Growth in hourly manufacturing earnings has climbed above the Fed target of 2.0 percent, while core CPI continues to track near the target. But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"313\" alt=\"5-Year Breakeven Rate, Core CPI and Growth in Hourly Manufacturing Earnings\" title=\"5-Year Breakeven Rate, Core CPI and Growth in Hourly Manufacturing Earnings\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=525%2C313&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The reasoning is straight-forward: the end of the infrastructure boom in China and slowing economic growth means low energy and commodity prices for the foreseeable future. Slow credit growth in the West will also act as a brake on aggregate demand, maintaining downward pressure on CPI.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"313\" alt=\"CPI:US and EU\" title=\"CPI:US and EU\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-cpi.png?resize=525%2C313&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Long-term interest rates are low, with 10-year Treasury yields testing support at 2.0 percent. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, suggests further weakness.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" title=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-tnx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Dollar Index rallied off support at 93. A higher trough indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 98 would suggest another advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" title=\"Dollar Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Gold<\/h2>\n<p>A strong dollar and low inflation would weaken demand for gold. Spot gold is testing medium-term support at $1150\/ounce. Breach would warn of a test of the primary level at $1100. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum is rising, but a peak below zero would signal continuation of the primary down-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" title=\"Spot Gold\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1200 &#8211; ( 1400 &#8211; 1200 ) = 1000<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\">\n<p>\nFanaticism consists in redoubling your efforts when you have forgotten your aim.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n~ George Santayana\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Growth in hourly manufacturing earnings has climbed above the Fed target of 2.0 percent, while core CPI continues to track near the target. But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years. The reasoning is straight-forward: the end &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/26\/low-inflation-and-a-stronger-dollar-indicate-weak-gold-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Low inflation and a stronger dollar indicate weak gold&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[70,90,818,854,855,1073,1626,3204],"class_list":["post-13789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-5-year-breakeven-rate","tag-core-cpi","tag-cpi","tag-cpi-eu","tag-dollar-index","tag-growth-in-hourly-manufacturing-earnings","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Low inflation and a stronger dollar indicate weak gold - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Low inflation and a stronger dollar indicate weak gold - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Growth in hourly manufacturing earnings has climbed above the Fed target of 2.0 percent, while core CPI continues to track near the target. But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years. 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But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5-Year Breakeven Rate, Core CPI and Growth in Hourly Manufacturing Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12372,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/01\/gold-and-treasury-yields-decline-as-inflation-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":13789,"position":1},"title":"Gold and Treasury yields decline as inflation weakens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 1, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"US inflation. Core CPI is hovering below 2.0 percent but the 5-year inflation breakeven (5-year Treasury yield minus TIPS yield) suggests that inflation will fall. The recent slow-down in average hourly manufacturing earnings growth (production and non-supervisory employees) may just be statistical noise, but decline of either of these signals\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5 Year Inflation Breakeven","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-inflation.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13336,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/17\/rising-inflation-dollar-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":13789,"position":2},"title":"Rising inflation, Dollar weakens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 17, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index (CPI) ticked up 1.14% (year-on-year) for April 2016, on the back of higher oil prices. Core CPI (excluding energy and food) eased slightly to 2.15%. Inflation is muted, but a sharp rise in hourly manufacturing (production and nonsupervisory employees) earnings growth (2.98% for 12 months to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI and Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-18-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-18-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-18-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12526,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/17\/gold-breaks-support-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":13789,"position":3},"title":"Gold breaks support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 17, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold fell to $1070\/ounce, breaching the band of primary support between $1080 and $1100 per ounce. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero indicate a strong primary down-trend. The next level of support is $1000\/ounce*. * Target calculation: 1100 - ( 1200 - 1100 ) = 1000 Inflation Core CPI is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-17-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-17-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-17-gold.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16662,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/14\/cpi-rises-but-us-stocks-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":13789,"position":4},"title":"CPI rises but US stocks rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 14, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"June consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 2.8% but forward estimates of inflation, represented by the 5-Year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury yield minus TIPS) remain subdued at 2.06%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is at 2.2% while average hourly earnings (total private: production and non-supervisory employees) annual growth, representing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11957,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/17\/interest-rates-and-inflation-hurt-gold-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":13789,"position":5},"title":"Interest rates and inflation hurt gold prices","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 17, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Where is inflation headed? The five-year breakeven rate (5-Year Treasury Yield minus 5-year TIPS) is hovering around 1.80 percent, close to the latest readings for core CPI. The market is anticipating low inflation for the next few years. Long-term interest rates are rising in anticipation of Fed tightening. 10-Year Treasury\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Five-year Breakeven Rate and Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-18-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-18-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-18-inflation.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13789","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13789"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13789\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}