{"id":13787,"date":"2015-10-17T05:28:09","date_gmt":"2015-10-17T05:28:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1232"},"modified":"2015-10-17T05:28:09","modified_gmt":"2015-10-17T05:28:09","slug":"weak-us-retail-sales-belie-strong-fundamentals-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/17\/weak-us-retail-sales-belie-strong-fundamentals-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak US retail sales belie strong fundamentals"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Lucia Mutikani at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2015\/10\/14\/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN0S81HC20151014\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters<\/a> writes:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>U.S. retail sales barely rose in September and producer prices recorded their biggest decline in eight months, raising further doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. The weak reports on Wednesday were the latest suggestion that the economy was losing momentum in the face of slowing global growth, a strong dollar, an inventory correction and lower oil prices that are hampering capital spending in the energy sector. Job growth braked sharply in the past two months.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Readers of the headline <em>Weak U.S. retail sales, inflation data cloud rate hike outlook<\/em> could be forgiven for believing the US economy is headed for recession. After all, retail sales growth has slowed to a crawl.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Retail Sales\" height=\"296\" width=\"525\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-15-retailsales.png?resize=525%2C296&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Retail Sales\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And the producer price index is declining sharply on the back of lower oil prices.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Producer Price Index\" height=\"296\" width=\"525\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-15-ppi.png?resize=525%2C296&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Producer Price Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But if we strip out food and energy prices, PPI remains close to the Fed&#8217;s 2% inflation target. And low energy prices will eventually feed through as a stimulus to the global economy.<\/p>\n<p>Hourly earnings in the manufacturing sector are starting to grow.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Average Hourly Earnings Growth: Manufacturing and Total Private\" height=\"296\" width=\"525\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-15-hourlyearnings.png?resize=525%2C296&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Hourly Earnings Growth: Manufacturing and Total Private\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Deeper in the Reuters article, we find a more objective view:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;The overall message is that consumer spending has remained extremely strong. If sentiment had indeed shifted, it would be hard to explain why sales of cars, certainly among the more expensive items, jumped in September to their highest level since July 2005,&#8221; said Harm Bandholz, chief economist at UniCredit Research in New York.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Light vehicle sales continue their upward trajectory.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Light Vehicle Sales\" height=\"296\" width=\"525\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-15-lightvehicles.png?resize=525%2C296&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Light Vehicle Sales\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And construction spending is decidedly bullish.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Construction Spending\" height=\"296\" width=\"525\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-15-construction.png?resize=525%2C296&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Construction Spending\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Not much here to keep Janet Yellen up at nights. When it comes to rate rises, the sooner we get the economy back on a sound footing the better, I say. Otherwise we encourage further capital misallocation and dependency on Fed stimulus. There are no free lunches from central bankers. Everything comes at a price.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\nIt is always important in matters of high politics to know what you do not know. Those who think they know, but are mistaken, and act upon their mistakes, are the most dangerous people to have in charge.<\/p>\n<p>~ Margaret Thatcher: Statecraft (2002)\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lucia Mutikani at Reuters writes: U.S. retail sales barely rose in September and producer prices recorded their biggest decline in eight months, raising further doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. The weak reports on Wednesday were the latest suggestion that the economy was losing momentum in the face of &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/17\/weak-us-retail-sales-belie-strong-fundamentals-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Weak US retail sales belie strong fundamentals&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[316,793,820,2109,2777,2943],"class_list":["post-13787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-average-hourly-earnings-growth-manufacturing-and-total-private","tag-construction-spending","tag-core-ppi","tag-light-vehicle-sales","tag-producer-price-index","tag-retail-sales"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weak US retail sales belie strong fundamentals - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weak US retail sales belie strong fundamentals - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Lucia Mutikani at Reuters writes: U.S. retail sales barely rose in September and producer prices recorded their biggest decline in eight months, raising further doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. 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The weak reports on Wednesday were the latest suggestion that the economy was losing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Retail Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-15-retailsales.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-15-retailsales.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-15-retailsales.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36523,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/18\/us-retail-sales-warn-of-more-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":13787,"position":1},"title":"US retail sales warn of more inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 18, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Advance retail sales for July (excluding motor and parts) came in at a strong $557.9 billion, way above the pre-pandemic trend (dotted line below). Real retail sales grew at a low 0.05% over the previous month, suggesting that the decline in real spending (adjusted for inflation) is slowing after two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Retail Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-17-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-17-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-17-retail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14196,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/19\/bob-doll-equities-appear-more-attractive-than-other-asset-classes-nuveen\/","url_meta":{"origin":13787,"position":2},"title":"Bob Doll: Equities Appear More Attractive than Other Asset Classes | Nuveen","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 19, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Bob Doll's weekly newsletter: The strong patch of summer U.S. economic data may have ended. Following weak Institute for Supply Management readings in previous weeks, August retail sales declined 0.3%. This marks the first pullback since March, and bears watching for a broader downtrend into September..... Corporate earnings expectations\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":60730,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/04\/australian-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":13787,"position":3},"title":"Australian headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Australia faces headwinds if there is a US-China trade war. China is our biggest trading partner; iron ore and coal exports will likely suffer. The ASX 200 is testing support at 8350, showing a \"dead cat bounce\" after tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed for 30 days. That is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-04-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-04-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-04-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42078,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/05\/17\/strong-retail-sales-and-improving-consumer-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":13787,"position":4},"title":"Strong retail sales and improving consumer outlook","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 17, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Strong real retail sales in the US, with inflation-adjusted monthly sales holding above the pre-pandemic trend (dotted line). Household finances are improving, with the NY Fed Survey showing an April decline to 30.5% in respondents who considered that they were \"somewhat worse off\" than a year ago, compared to 38.6%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real Retail & Food Services Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-16-real-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-16-real-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-16-real-retail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38904,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/18\/higher-for-longer-as-us-economy-shows-resilience\/","url_meta":{"origin":13787,"position":5},"title":"Higher for longer as US economy shows resilience","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 18, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The producer price index (PPI) slowed to 10.3% for the 12 months to November. Declining goods inflation is likely to feed through into lower CPI growth in the months ahead. Energy PPI is closely linked to energy prices, as the plot of PPI against WTI crude below shows. West Texas\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"PPI & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-16-ppi-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-16-ppi-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-16-ppi-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13787"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13787\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}