{"id":13784,"date":"2015-10-09T00:46:34","date_gmt":"2015-10-09T00:46:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1211"},"modified":"2015-10-09T00:46:34","modified_gmt":"2015-10-09T00:46:34","slug":"bear-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/09\/bear-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Bear Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"

North America<\/h2>\n

Construction activity continues to advance. The graph below shows Total US Construction Spending adjusted for inflation (Core CPI). Spending is substantially below the 2004 to 2007 property bubble but equates to the earlier Dotcom era. The steep rise suggests that rate increases will be necessary to prevent another bubble.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 2000. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates (medium-term) buying pressure. Recovery above 2000 would signal a relieving rally, with a target (from the double-bottom pattern) of 2130*. The market remains bearish and respect of 2130 would warn of another test of primary support at 1870.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1870 ) = 2130<\/p>\n

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 indicates market risk is easing. We need to remain vigilant for the next few weeks as VIX can be prone to false breaks.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

NYSE short sales<\/a> are subdued.<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly testing resistance at 17000 on the weekly chart. Breakout would offer a similar target of 18300. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 16000 is unlikely, but would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX 60 recovered above the former primary support level at 800. Follow-through above 820 would signal a relieving rally. Weak 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns the market is still bearish.<\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 820 + ( 820 – 750 ) = 890<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

Germany’s DAX remains weak, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero. Recovery above 10500 would indicate a bear rally. Only follow-through above 11000 would signal that the down-trend is over.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

The Footsie proved more resilient, respecting support at 6000 with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero. Breakout above 6300 indicates a relieving rally, while follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest that the correction is over. Reversal below 6000 is unlikely, but would confirm the primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

The Shanghai Composite Index continues to test government-enforced support at 3000. Recovery above 3500 is most unlikely.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rallied to test resistance at 22500, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow recovered above zero. Follow-through above 22500 would indicate another test of 24000. But this remains a bear market and reversal below 22500 would warn of another decline.<\/p>\n

\"Hang<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 respected primary support at 17000. Gradual decline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests a secondary correction. Recovery above 19000 would indicate another test of 21000.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 19000 + ( 19000 – 17000 ) = 21000<\/p>\n

India’s Sensex followed through above resistance at 26500, indicating a bear rally. Strong buying pressure, signaled by a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, suggests a reversal. Breakout above 28500 would confirm. Reversal below 25000 is unlikely, but would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"SENSEX\"<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

A monthly chart of the ASX 200 shows the significance of the 5000 support level.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Rising 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow on the daily chart indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 5300 would offer a target of 5700. But expect stiff resistance between 5200 and 5300 — already flagged by a tall shadow on today’s candlestick. Breach of 5000 is unlikely at present, but would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 4600<\/p>\n

\n
\nMore….
\n<\/a>
\n<\/h2>\n

\n\t\t\t\tCrude: Another bear rally<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tGold down-trend continues<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tSen. John McCain on Russia’s airstrikes in Syria<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tPaddleboarding with whales <\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n
\n

\nDeleveragings go on for about 15 years. The process of raising debt relative to incomes goes on for 30 or 40 years, typically. There’s a last big surge, which we had in the two years from 2005 to 2007 and from 1927 to 1929, and in Japan from 1988 to 1990, when the pace becomes manic. That’s the classic bubble. And then it takes about 15 years to adjust.\n<\/p>\n

~ Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

North America Construction activity continues to advance. The graph below shows Total US Construction Spending adjusted for inflation (Core CPI). Spending is substantially below the 2004 to 2007 property bubble but equates to the earlier Dotcom era. The steep rise suggests that rate increases will be necessary to prevent another bubble. The S&P 500 is … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Bear Rally”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,507,793,818,947,1113,1481,1644,2478,2535,3010,3100,3503],"class_list":["post-13784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-bse-sensex","tag-construction-spending","tag-core-cpi","tag-dax","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-ftse-100","tag-hang-seng-index","tag-nikkei-225","tag-nyse-short-sales","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-tsx-60"],"yoast_head":"\nBear Rally - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bear Rally - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"North America Construction activity continues to advance. The graph below shows Total US Construction Spending adjusted for inflation (Core CPI). Spending is substantially below the 2004 to 2007 property bubble but equates to the earlier Dotcom era. The steep rise suggests that rate increases will be necessary to prevent another bubble. 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Electricity & Cement Production An examination of electricity and cement production shows the US recovery has plenty of scope for further improvement. Cement production recovered from its dramatic fall in 2008 but remains at the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Cement Production","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-19-cement.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-19-cement.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-19-cement.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1229,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/14\/bear-market-brief-respite\/","url_meta":{"origin":13784,"position":1},"title":"Bear market – brief respite","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 14, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"North America The S&P 500 is retracing to test short-term support at 2000. Failure would warn of another test of support at 1870, while respect would indicate continuation of the bear rally to test resistance at the high of 2130. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates (medium-term) buying\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-14-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48009,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/02\/lt-treasury-yields-plunge-as-stocks-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":13784,"position":2},"title":"LT Treasury yields plunge as stocks rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell sharply, testing support at 3.8%. A Trend Index peak below zero warns of further weakness. Breach of support would offer a target of 3.5%. Falling yields dented demand for the greenback. Dollar Index breach of support at 103 would suggest another test of 100.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-02-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-02-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-02-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13797,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/26\/markets-lack-enthusiasm\/","url_meta":{"origin":13784,"position":3},"title":"Markets lack enthusiasm","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 26, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 hesitated at 2100, short candle ranges indicating a lack of interest ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Lower 21-day Twiggs Money Flow likewise indicates a lack of enthusiasm. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely but would warn of another test of primary support at 1870. Expect strong resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-26-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59666,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/04\/gold-and-silver-find-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":13784,"position":4},"title":"Gold and silver find support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 4, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ISM manufacturing PMI remains weak but the rest of the US economy remains robust. Stocks' narrow advance indicates a lack of conviction. However, gold and silver found support and are likely to benefit from economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Stocks The S&P 500 is edging cautiously upwards. We expect another\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":45404,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/15\/dollar-crashes-while-gold-and-stocks-rally-on-weak-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":13784,"position":5},"title":"Dollar crashes while Gold and stocks rally on weak CPI","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 15, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A weak CPI report and the prospect of lower interest rates caused a rally in bonds, stocks and precious metals. 10-Year Treasury yields broke support at 4.50%, offering a target of 4.0%. We expect a surge of investors into longer-term Treasuries, driving yields lower, as the peak at 5.0% now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-15-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-15-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-15-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13784\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}