{"id":13781,"date":"2015-08-13T02:20:18","date_gmt":"2015-08-13T02:20:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1021"},"modified":"2015-08-13T02:20:18","modified_gmt":"2015-08-13T02:20:18","slug":"a-currency-war-has-begun-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/13\/a-currency-war-has-begun-2\/","title":{"rendered":"A currency war has begun…."},"content":{"rendered":"


\n\"Spot
\n<\/a><\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan all expanded their balance sheets (commonly referred to as quantitative easing or QE for short) post-2008 to counteract a contracting money supply and prevent a deflationary spiral. These actions also have the beneficial effect of weakening the currency and improving international competitiveness.<\/p>\n

China was considered immune because of its persistent current account surplus and $4 Trillion in foreign reserves. But the recent sharp contraction in Chinese exports<\/a> to the EU suggest otherwise.<\/p>\n

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) responded by effectively devaluing the Yuan. So far the “one-off adjustment” has been repeated on three consecutive days.<\/p>\n

\"USDCNY\"<\/p>\n

The Euro appreciated considerably against the US dollar as CNY carry trades are unwound.<\/p>\n

\"EURUSD\"<\/p>\n

Gold broke out of its narrow rectangle between $1080 and $1100 per ounce as investors scuttled to the safety of bullion.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1200 – 1100 ) = 1000<\/p>\n

The Yen displays little net gain or loss.<\/p>\n

\"USDJPY\"<\/p>\n

The Dollar Index does not include China’s Yuan and is falling primarily because of the Euro. The Broad Trade-Weighted Index which includes the Yuan is calculated weekly; so it will take a few days before we can assess the impact.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

Competing devaluations are likely to continue as each state (or trading block) attempts to maintain an export surplus. This is a zero sum game, so each action will inevitably elicit an equivalent response from major trading partners. Currency markets are awash with vast sums of liquid capital and an estimated $9 Trillion in carry trades<\/a> (where hedge funds borrow in a low-interest-rate currency and invest in another at higher rates). Any beggar-thy-neighbor escalation is likely to destabilize financial markets and the precarious balance may prove difficult to restore.<\/p>\n

During the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis George Soros called for international regulation of financial markets to prevent a reoccurrence.<\/p>\n

\n

\nIt is time to recognize that financial markets are inherently unstable. Imposing market discipline means imposing instability, and how much instability can society take? …. To put it bluntly, the choice confronting us is whether we will regulate global financial markets internationally or leave it to each individual state to protect its interests as best it can. The latter course will surely lead to the breakdown of the gigantic circulatory system, which goes under the name of global capitalism.\n<\/p>\n

~ George Soros: The Crisis of Global Capitalism (1998)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n
\nMore….
\n<\/a>
\n<\/h2>\n

\n\t\t\t\tIEA: At Least Another Year Before Oil Markets Rebalance | OilPrice.com<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tDesperate times, desperate acts<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tCrude fall continues<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tLet the Global Race to the Bottom Begin | Foreign Policy<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tWindow on Eurasia: Kyiv Must Work to Isolate Moscow Rather than Negotiate with It<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tGoldman Sachs Doubles Down On Lower-For-Longer Scenario | OilPrice.com<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tPhilip Glass: 100,000 People <\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan all expanded their balance sheets (commonly referred to as quantitative easing or QE for short) post-2008 to counteract a contracting money supply and prevent a deflationary spiral. These actions also have the beneficial effect of weakening the currency and improving international competitiveness. … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “A currency war has begun….”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[678,925,1018,1073,1292,1935,2624,3204,3574],"class_list":["post-13781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-chinese-yuan","tag-currency-war","tag-devaluation","tag-dollar-index","tag-euro","tag-japanese-yen","tag-pboc","tag-spot-gold","tag-usdcny"],"yoast_head":"\nA currency war has begun.... - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A currency war has begun.... - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan all expanded their balance sheets (commonly referred to as quantitative easing or QE for short) post-2008 to counteract a contracting money supply and prevent a deflationary spiral. 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(Bloomberg) The PBOC set the Yuan\u2019s fixing at 7.0996 per dollar on Monday, from 7.104 on Friday. The much lower fixing than the expected 7.222 causing the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Chinese Yuan"","block_context":{"text":"Chinese Yuan","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/chinese-yuan\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Chinese Yuan","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-25-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-25-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-25-cny.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50447,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/27\/gold-tests-2200-as-the-yuan-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":13781,"position":1},"title":"Gold tests $2200 as the Yuan weakens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 27, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold, currently at $2175 per ounce, continues to test resistance at $2200. Breakout would signal a fresh advance with a target of $2400. The current iAu99.99 gold contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange -- the \"i\" stands for international, as opposed to domestic contracts -- is priced at RMB 507.85\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-27-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-27-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-27-gold.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18631,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/10\/gold-spikes\/","url_meta":{"origin":13781,"position":2},"title":"Gold spikes as Yuan falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"China has broken its unwritten guarantee that the PBOC will maintain the Yuan below 7 to the US Dollar. Official fixings for USDCNY crept above 7.0 this week, indicating the PBOC is no longer prepared to support its currency. This is a two-edged sword. While it makes exports cheaper, counteracting\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Chinese Yuan"","block_context":{"text":"Chinese Yuan","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/chinese-yuan\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12710,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/09\/a-strong-dollar-hurts-china-more-than-us-bloomberg-business\/","url_meta":{"origin":13781,"position":3},"title":"A Strong Dollar Hurts China Most | Bloomberg Business","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 9, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"From Rich Miller and Enda Curran at Bloomberg: The yuan has advanced almost 15 percent against a basket of currencies since mid-2014, according to a trade-weighted index compiled by Westpac Strategy Group in Sydney. The rise came at a time when China was already losing competitiveness to countries such as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16888,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/24\/support-for-the-yuan-lifts-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":13781,"position":4},"title":"Support for the Yuan lifts Gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 24, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"China's PBOC stepped in with belated support for the Yuan, holding the line at 14.5 US cents. The Dollar retreated, with the Dollar Index testing support at 95. Respect of support would confirm another advance, with a long-term target of 103 \u2014 if central banks like the Fed and PBOC\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Aussie dollar"","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":57745,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/25\/currency-wars-on-the-horizon\/","url_meta":{"origin":13781,"position":5},"title":"Currency wars are bullish for gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 25, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The US Dollar broke long-term support at 7.06 against the Chinese Yuan last week after the Fed confirmed it was cutting interest rates. Follow-through below 7.00 against the Yuan would confirm a Dollar bear market. Within days, China announced new measures to support its economy: - Lowering rates on existing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Chinese Yuan","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-cny.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13781","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13781"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13781\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13781"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13781"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13781"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}