{"id":13779,"date":"2015-07-24T07:18:37","date_gmt":"2015-07-24T07:18:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1008"},"modified":"2015-07-24T07:18:37","modified_gmt":"2015-07-24T07:18:37","slug":"transports-deflate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/24\/transports-deflate\/","title":{"rendered":"Transports deflate"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bellwether transport stock Fedex is testing primary support at $164 on the weekly chart. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal. Breach of $164 would signal a primary down-trend — a warning that economic activity is contracting.<\/p>\n

\"Nasdaq<\/p>\n

The LoDI National Index from University of Louisville and Oklahoma State University also declined for the last two months but remains above 50, indicating a healthy level of economic activity.\n<\/p>\n

\"LoDI<\/p>\n

The LoDI Index uses linear regression analysis to combine cargo volume data from rail, barge, air, and truck transit, along with various economic factors. The resulting indicator is designed to predict upcoming changes in the level of logistics and distribution activity in the US and is represented by a value between 1 and 100. An index at or above 50 represents a healthy level of activity in the industry.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Breach of primary support by Fedex and reversal of the LoDI below 50 would warn of a contraction in economic activity but we are not there yet.<\/p>\n

North America<\/h3>\n

The reporting season got off to a shaky start with Apple disappointing but the ship seems to have steadied. Of the 62 stocks in the S&P 500 that have reported, 43 beat, 5 met and 14 (or 22%) missed their estimates.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 met resistance at 2130 and 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peaks close to zero warn of medium-term selling pressure. Another test of support at 2040\/2050 is likely. Recovery above 2130 is unlikely at present, but would offer a target of 2200*.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 2130 + ( 2130 – 2050 ) = 2210<\/p>\n

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains at low levels typical of a bull market.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX 60 respected the upper trend channel, warning of continuation of the correction. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at 800 would confirm.<\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 850 ) = 950<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h3>\n

The ASX 200 respected resistance at 5650\/5700, warning of another test of support at 5400. Breach would test primary support at 5150\/5200, while respect would indicate that the correction is over; follow-through above 5700 would confirm. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates long-term buying pressure, suggesting that the primary up-trend is intact. <\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

\n

If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.\n<\/p>\n

~ George Soros<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bellwether transport stock Fedex is testing primary support at $164 on the weekly chart. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal. Breach of $164 would signal a primary down-trend — a warning that economic activity is contracting. The LoDI National Index from University of Louisville and Oklahoma State University also declined … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Transports deflate”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,615,3010,3504],"class_list":["post-13779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-sp-500","tag-tsx-60-index"],"yoast_head":"\nTransports deflate - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Transports deflate - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bellwether transport stock Fedex is testing primary support at $164 on the weekly chart. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal. Breach of $164 would signal a primary down-trend — a warning that economic activity is contracting. 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Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm, suggesting a broad slow-down in US economic activity. The Freight Transportation Services Index reinforces this,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Freight Transportation Services Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-18-freight.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-18-freight.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-18-freight.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12195,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/17\/falling-retail-sales-and-freight-activity-cause-for-concern\/","url_meta":{"origin":13779,"position":1},"title":"Falling retail sales and freight activity: Cause for concern?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 17, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The rally in bellwether transport stock Fedex was short-lived and it is once again testing primary support at $164. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm, suggesting a broad slow-down in US economic activity. The Freight Transportation Services Index reinforces this,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12336,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/09\/14\/not-much-wrong-with-the-us-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":13779,"position":2},"title":"Not much wrong with the US economy","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 14, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Profit margins in the US are contracting, with the second quarter showing a 6.0% decine in profit per unit of real gross value added (Nonfinancial). Contraction of greater than 10% would be cause for concern, but we need to dig a little deeper. Earnings per share for the S&P 500\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Declining US Profit Per Unit of Real Gross Value Added (Nonfinancial)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-09-14-profitmargins.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-09-14-profitmargins.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-09-14-profitmargins.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63040,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/08\/consumer-sentiment-plunges-as-economic-activity-contracts\/","url_meta":{"origin":13779,"position":3},"title":"Consumer sentiment plunges as economic activity contracts","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 8, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The University of Michigan's Current Economic Conditions Index plunged to a record low of 52.3, and the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3. These are some of the lowest readings recorded in the University of Michigan survey's 65-year history. The University of Michigan's Current Economic Conditions Index plunged\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-07-uom-conditions.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-07-uom-conditions.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-07-uom-conditions.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61444,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/29\/us-weekly-market-snapshot-7\/","url_meta":{"origin":13779,"position":4},"title":"US Weekly Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 29, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market Our Bull\/Bear Market indicator is unchanged at 60%, with two of the five leading indicators signaling risk-off: We replaced the Coincident Economic Activity Index with Current\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-07-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-07-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-07-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12776,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/01\/11\/fedex-warns-of-slowing-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":13779,"position":5},"title":"Fedex warns of slowing economy","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 11, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Bellwether transport stock Fedex, in a primary down-trend, warns of slowing economic activity in the US. The 6-month Twiggs Momentum peak below zero flags a strong down-trend. Breach of support at 130.00 would warn of another decline -- and worsening economic climate. European equivalent Deutsche Post AG (DPW.DE), owner of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fedex","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-12-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-12-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-12-fdx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13779\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}