{"id":13777,"date":"2015-07-16T03:50:43","date_gmt":"2015-07-16T03:50:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1000"},"modified":"2015-07-16T03:50:43","modified_gmt":"2015-07-16T03:50:43","slug":"greece-and-iran-party-but-china-lurks-in-the-shadows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/16\/greece-and-iran-party-but-china-lurks-in-the-shadows\/","title":{"rendered":"Greece and Iran party but China lurks in the shadows"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From the Wall Street Journal:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Greece&#8217;s Parliament passed early Thursday a crucial set of austerity measures required for a eurozone bailout package&#8230;.The measures were supported by 229 lawmakers in the nation&#8217;s 300-seat Parliament.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>A <i>Grexit<\/i> has been avoided for the present, but unless the Greeks are successful in implementing structural reform, reversing many years of cronyism and corruption, we are likely to witness further re-runs in the future.<\/p>\n<p>The nuclear deal with Iran has outraged the Right in Israel and the US. There are many pitfalls along the way but I believe this is a bold step forward. The outcome will be uncertain for many years but presents both sides with a chance to build a new relationship where they can peacefully co-exist. The alternative is another war in the Middle East &mdash; with no winners.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/qz\/status\/621514659636490240\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Iran\" alt=\"Iran\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/CKAOS0aVEAEl6kp.png:large\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"ro\" dir=\"ltr\">Photos: exuberant Iranians celebrate the nuclear deal <a href=\"http:\/\/t.co\/RBqvCR6Vm0\">http:\/\/t.co\/RBqvCR6Vm0<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/t.co\/fUfvelIeP5\">pic.twitter.com\/fUfvelIeP5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Quartz (@qz) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/qz\/status\/621514659636490240\">July 16, 2015<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\">\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js<\/a><\/p>\n<p>I was surprised to see the Russians playing a constructive role in the dialogue. I am sure that Vladimir Putin would take personal delight in poking a stick through Obama&#8217;s bicycle spokes, but the interests of the state come first. &#8220;Follow the green&#8221; as one US diplomat described it. The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/07\/15\/world\/europe\/russia-quickly-maneuvers-to-capitalize-on-iran-nuclear-deal.html\">New York Times<\/a> offers a clue:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, lost no time in talking about the accord on Iran&#8217;s nuclear program. He was on television minutes after the deal was clinched, and even before the formal news conference had begun, announcing the landmark agreement to the audience back home and emphasizing the many potential benefits, strategic and economic, that it holds for Russia&#8230;..Russia possesses some of the world&#8217;s foremost expertise in atomic energy, and has helped build and operate atomic reactors in Iran for many years. Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear energy company, helped build and expand the Bushehr nuclear plant and already has contracts to build two more reactors there.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>China, on the other hand still lurks in the background. The state managed to stem the flood, suspending trading on more than 50% of stocks and forbidding large stockholders from selling. This is a public acknowledgment that Chinese stock prices are artificial and in no way to be trusted (&#8220;What&#8217;s new&#8221; some cynics would ask). They have destroyed any credibility that their stock markets had. Japan had <i>zombie banks<\/i> after their 1990 stock market crash, solvent in name only. China seems to be following a similar path with <i>zombie stocks<\/i>. Banks who have lent money against those stocks are likely to follow.<\/p>\n<p>For a deeper understanding of the situation, read <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/nc\/blog\/detail\/article\/1675-chinas-stock-market-falling-off-a-cliff-why-and-why-care\/\">China&#8217;s stock market falling off a cliff: Why, and why care?<\/a> by Alicia Garcia-Herrero at Bruegel.org<\/p>\n<h3>Europe<\/h3>\n<p>Germany&#8217;s DAX recovered above its descending trendline, indicating the end of the correction. Follow-through above 11600 would strengthen the signal, suggesting a fresh advance. Breakout above 12400 would confirm. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its descending trendline shows that selling pressure has eased.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"DAX\" alt=\"DAX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-16-dax.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 12500 + ( 12500 &#8211; 11000 ) = 14000<\/p>\n<p>The Footsie also recovered above its descending trendline. Follow-through above 6750 would indicate another attempt at 7100. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero flags buying pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"FTSE 100\" alt=\"FTSE 100\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-16-ftse.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 &#8211; 6500 ) = 7500<\/p>\n<h3>Asia<\/h3>\n<p>The Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at 4000. Government efforts to stem the crash are unlikely to restore credibility to stock prices. The large divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-16-ssec.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 4000 &#8211; ( 5000 &#8211; 4000 ) = 3000<\/p>\n<p>Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 recovered above 20000, suggesting a fresh advance. Breakout above 21000 would confirm. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its descending trendline suggests the correction is over.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Nikkei 225 Index\" alt=\"Nikkei 225 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-16-n225.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 &#8211; 19000 ) = 23000<\/p>\n<p>India&#8217;s Sensex recovered above 28000, suggesting a fresh advance. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow recovery above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breach of primary support at 26500 is now unlikely.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"SENSEX\" alt=\"SENSEX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-16-bse.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 30000 + ( 30000 &#8211; 27000 ) = 33000<\/p>\n<h3>North America<\/h3>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 respected medium-term support at 2040. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 2120 would offer a target of 2200*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-16-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2100 + ( 2100 &#8211; 2000 ) = 2200<\/p>\n<p>The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated to low levels typical of a bull market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-16-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 is approaching its Dotcom-era high of 4800. Breakout above 4550 would signal a test of long-term resistance. 6-Month Twiggs Momentum oscillating above zero reflects a healthy  long-term up-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Nasdaq 100\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-16-ndx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Canada&#8217;s TSX 60 recovered above support at 850\/855. Breakout above the upper trend channel would indicate the correction is over, suggesting another test of 900. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of the upper trend channel is unlikely, but would warn of continuation of the down-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"TSX 60 Index\" alt=\"TSX 60 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-16-tsx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 &#8211; 850 ) = 950<\/p>\n<h3>Australia<\/h3>\n<p>The ASX 200 broke out above its descending trend channel, flagging end of the correction. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Follow through above 5700 would signal another test of 6000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"ASX 200\" alt=\"ASX 200\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-16-xjo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/\" class=\"noul pagebreak\"><br \/>\nMore&#8230;.<br \/>\n<\/a><br \/>\n<\/h2>\n<h4>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"noul\" href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2015\/07\/15\/could-a-new-property-tax-save-the-economy\/\">Could a new property tax save the Australian economy?<\/a><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n<h4>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"noul\" href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2015\/07\/15\/will-iran-deal-nuke-crude\/\">Will Iran deal nuke crude?<\/a><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n<h4>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"noul\" href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2015\/07\/14\/hint-of-greek-bailout-revives-rates-and-the-dollar\/\">Hint of Greek bailout revives rates (and the Dollar)<\/a><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n<h4>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"noul\" href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/\">Bank share prices tipped to decline<\/a><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n<h4>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"noul\" href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2015\/07\/13\/gold-is-barrick-next\/\">Gold: Is Barrick next?<\/a><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n<h4>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"noul\" href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2015\/07\/13\/apra-considers-two-per-cent-capital-adequacy-increase\/\">APRA considers two per cent capital adequacy increase<\/a><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n<h4>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"noul\" href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2015\/07\/12\/greece-the-musical-with-thanks-to-grease\/\">Greece: the musical (with thanks to Grease) <\/a><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\">\n<p>Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.\n<\/p>\n<p>~ George Soros<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From the Wall Street Journal: Greece&#8217;s Parliament passed early Thursday a crucial set of austerity measures required for a eurozone bailout package&#8230;.The measures were supported by 229 lawmakers in the nation&#8217;s 300-seat Parliament. A Grexit has been avoided for the present, but unless the Greeks are successful in implementing structural reform, reversing many years of &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/16\/greece-and-iran-party-but-china-lurks-in-the-shadows\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Greece and Iran party but China lurks in the shadows&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,615,663,947,1295,1481,1614,2401,2478,3010,3083,3100,3255,3504],"class_list":["post-13777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-china","tag-dax","tag-euro-zone","tag-ftse-100","tag-greece","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-nikkei-225","tag-sp-500","tag-sensex","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-stock-market-crash","tag-tsx-60-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Greece and Iran party but China lurks in the shadows - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Greece and Iran party but China lurks in the shadows - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From the Wall Street Journal: Greece&#8217;s Parliament passed early Thursday a crucial set of austerity measures required for a eurozone bailout package&#8230;.The measures were supported by 229 lawmakers in the nation&#8217;s 300-seat Parliament. 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Bull\/Bear Market The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator increased to 54% due to a data revision that affected the US indicator (which has a 40% weighting in the Australian\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13776,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/09\/another-week-another-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":13777,"position":4},"title":"Another week another crisis","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 9, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The crisis in Greece continues, dragging down stocks across Europe. 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