{"id":1377,"date":"2011-10-17T21:52:33","date_gmt":"2011-10-18T01:52:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=1377"},"modified":"2011-10-17T21:52:33","modified_gmt":"2011-10-18T01:52:33","slug":"terms-of-trade-shock-brewing-macrobusiness-com-au","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/17\/terms-of-trade-shock-brewing-macrobusiness-com-au\/","title":{"rendered":"Terms of trade shock brewing? – macrobusiness.com.au"},"content":{"rendered":"

As a simple exercise to give you some idea of where we\u2019re headed, let\u2019s refer to Rumplestatskin this morning, who shows that iron ore alone represents almost 30% of the export basket that makes up the terms of trade. Coal makes up another large component above 20%:<\/p>\n

……So, if we use the conservative Westpac projection of a 16% fall in the value of iron ore and a 5% fall in value of total coal exports (which is obviously a very conservative guess because we don\u2019t know the coking coal weighting), that would translate to a terms of trade fall around 12% in January next year.<\/p>\n

via Terms of trade shock brewing? – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As a simple exercise to give you some idea of where we\u2019re headed, let\u2019s refer to Rumplestatskin this morning, who shows that iron ore alone represents almost 30% of the export basket that makes up the terms of trade. Coal makes up another large component above 20%: ……So, if we use the conservative Westpac projection … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Terms of trade shock brewing? – macrobusiness.com.au”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,7,8],"tags":[282,723,1328,1902],"class_list":["post-1377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-forex","category-gold-commodities","tag-aud","tag-coal","tag-exports","tag-iron-ore"],"yoast_head":"\nTerms of trade shock brewing? - macrobusiness.com.au - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Terms of trade shock brewing? - macrobusiness.com.au - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As a simple exercise to give you some idea of where we\u2019re headed, let\u2019s refer to Rumplestatskin this morning, who shows that iron ore alone represents almost 30% of the export basket that makes up the terms of trade. 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The first few months of next year are not going to be kind to the TOT. Not kind at all. via Bulk trouble - macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au. Thermal coal: Coking coal: Iron\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1671,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/31\/why-the-rba-should-cut-rates-macrobusiness-com-au-macrobusiness-com-au\/","url_meta":{"origin":1377,"position":1},"title":"Why the RBA should cut rates – macrobusiness.com.au","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 31, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Nominal house prices are falling. Not collapsing, certainly. But falling very consistently, roughly 6% peak to trough. 8.5% in real terms. This has had a number of well documented effects including high savings rates, historically conservative levels of retail sales and stalled services sector investment. .....Now, in August, the latest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13047,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/20\/china-trade-food-lng-coal-to-gain-ground-as-iron-ore-exports-slip-afr-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":1377,"position":2},"title":"China trade: Food, LNG, coal to gain ground as iron ore exports slip | afr.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 20, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Ben Potter at AFR: Iron ore sales to China are set to fall as a share of total two-way trade, while natural gas, food and even coal exports will become more important, the paper, China's Evolving Demand for Commodities, finds. A decline in Chinese crude steel production means iron\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11895,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/04\/australian-exports-hammered\/","url_meta":{"origin":1377,"position":3},"title":"Australian exports hammered","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 4, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"This chart from Westpac highlights Australia's export misery: Iron ore prices are falling faster than shipments are rising. Andrew Hanlan sums up the the problem facing the Australian economy: A jump in imports coincided with a sharp fall in export earnings. Critically, the rest of the world is paying us\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Iron ore Exports and Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-04-ironore.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-04-ironore.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-04-ironore.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":23240,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/15\/china-trade-tensions-and-the-australian-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":1377,"position":4},"title":"China trade tensions and the Australian Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Tensions between Australia and China are growing increasingly strained. It started with Australia banning Huawei from supplying equipment for its 5G communication network but spiraled downwards after Australia led the call for an international investigation into the COVID-19 outbreak. More than 50 ships carrying Australian coal have been stranded off\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4951,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/26\/terms-of-trade-taking-a-hammering-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":1377,"position":5},"title":"Terms of trade taking a hammering | | MacroBusiness","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 26, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"As predicted, coking coal is now breaking down in sympathy with iron ore. .....That\u2019s 10% in two weeks. Thermal coal is down 10% in two months. Ore is now down over 20% in two months. These three commodities make up 50% of the [Australian] terms of trade. via Terms of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1377"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1377\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}