{"id":13755,"date":"2014-12-01T03:58:31","date_gmt":"2014-12-01T03:58:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=868"},"modified":"2014-12-01T03:58:31","modified_gmt":"2014-12-01T03:58:31","slug":"crude-oil-a-zero-sum-game-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/12\/01\/crude-oil-a-zero-sum-game-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude oil: A zero-sum game?"},"content":{"rendered":"

“The current fall in price does nothing to offset the squeeze on the total economy from rising costs,” Grantham writes. “It merely transfers massive amounts of income from one subgroup (oil producers) to another (oil consumers), in a largely zero-sum game….”[Business Insider<\/a>]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The above quote from Jeremy Grantham made me do a double-take. His “largely zero-sum game” refers to the global playing field. Oil producers such as the Saudis, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria and Iran will earn less per barrel, while oil consumers like China and the EU will gain an equivalent amount per barrel. More importantly, oil consumers will receive a substantial boost to their economies. The “zero-sum game” assumes that crude production will remain constant. But consumption is likely to rise significantly as plunging oil prices deliver more disposable income to consumers, providing a massive stimulus to local economies. That in turn will lead to increased production of crude oil. A win-win for producers and consumers.<\/p>\n

The Nymex Light Crude monthly chart shows a breach of long-term support at $75\/barrel. Brent crude is in a similar down-trend. Target for the (WTI) decline is $40\/barrel*.<\/p>\n

\"Nymex<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 75 – ( 110 – 75 ) = 40<\/p>\n

Plunging prices may slow the establishment of new wells, but existing wells are likely to continue pumping as long as the price per barrel of crude is higher than the marginal cost. Marginal costs ignore sunk (or fixed) costs like exploration and establishing a new well. They are merely the variable costs that would be saved — like wages and consumables — if production is halted. Marginal costs are far lower than the producers’ total cost and are not yet threatened.<\/p>\n

As for the long-term viability of producers at lower prices, the following chart is worth repeating. Prior to the 2005 “China boom”, the ratio of crude prices to CPI oscillated between 0.1 and 0.2. Over the last few years it has soared to between 0.4 and 0.6. A fall back to 0.2 would harm new, marginal producers (i.e. US fracking) but should not affect core producers. Whether governments reliant on “oil-welfare” — like Russia, Iran and Venezuela — are sustainable is an entirely different matter.<\/p>\n

\"Nymex<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“The current fall in price does nothing to offset the squeeze on the total economy from rising costs,” Grantham writes. “It merely transfers massive amounts of income from one subgroup (oil producers) to another (oil consumers), in a largely zero-sum game….”[Business Insider] The above quote from Jeremy Grantham made me do a double-take. His “largely … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Crude oil: A zero-sum game?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[495,2220,2527,3287],"class_list":["post-13755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-brent-crude","tag-marginal-costs","tag-nymex-light-crude","tag-sunk-costs"],"yoast_head":"\nCrude oil: A zero-sum game? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crude oil: A zero-sum game? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"“The current fall in price does nothing to offset the squeeze on the total economy from rising costs,” Grantham writes. “It merely transfers massive amounts of income from one subgroup (oil producers) to another (oil consumers), in a largely zero-sum game….”[Business Insider] The above quote from Jeremy Grantham made me do a double-take. 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Now, the previously unimaginable has occurred, with Nymex Light Crude falling below zero for the first time in history, closing at -$13.10 per barrel with reports\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11522,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/04\/oil-prices-where-to-now\/","url_meta":{"origin":13755,"position":2},"title":"Oil prices: Where to now?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 4, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The latest newsletter from Absolute Return Partners suggests that the fall in oil prices is temporary and oil will soon recover to around $100\/barrel: \u201cAll I know is that the price of oil won\u2019t stay below the production cost for a long period of time (as in years). Hence I\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude adjusted to November 2014 prices","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-05-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-05-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-05-crude-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11565,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/17\/grantham-lower-oil-price-is-new-normal-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":13755,"position":3},"title":"Grantham: Lower oil price is new normal | Macrobusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 17, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"By Houses & Holes Reproduced with kind permission from Macrobusiness.com.au From Jeremy Grantham: The simplest argument for the oil price decline is for once correct. A wave of new U.S.\u00a0fracking oil could be seen to be overtaking the modestly growing global oil demand. It became clear that OPEC, mainly Saudi\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"1234","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/12347-300x193.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":58323,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/14\/stabilizing-crude-oil-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":13755,"position":4},"title":"Stabilizing crude oil prices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Volatile crude oil prices damage production capacity and economic growth and cause volatile consumer price inflation. At the height of the 2020 pandemic, Nymex WTI crude oil prices fell to an unprecedented low of -$13.10 per barrel as demand dried up and oil storage facilities reached capacity. Producers faced a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-14-crude3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-14-crude3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-14-crude3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6808,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/27\/gold-retreats\/","url_meta":{"origin":13755,"position":5},"title":"Gold retreats","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 27, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot gold is consolidating after retreating below $1600\/ounce on the hourly chart. Breach of short-term support at $1590 would warn of a down-swing to test medium-term support at $1550 -- and primary support at $1500. On the monthly chart we can see that breach of $1500 would signal a primary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13755"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13755\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}