{"id":13754,"date":"2014-12-01T03:56:07","date_gmt":"2014-12-01T03:56:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=866"},"modified":"2014-12-01T03:56:07","modified_gmt":"2014-12-01T03:56:07","slug":"a-tale-of-two-economies-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/12\/01\/a-tale-of-two-economies-2\/","title":{"rendered":"A tale of two economies"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Stock markets in Western Europe and Asia are rallying on the strength of falling oil prices, joining the US in a bull trend. But primary producers, largely dependent on commodity exports, are likely to suffer as a result of falling prices. Australia is no exception. <\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 continues a primary advance. A conservative target would be 2200*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 &#8211; 1800 ) = 2200<\/p>\n<p>CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates low risk typical of a bull market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Germany&#8217;s DAX is testing resistance at its earlier high of 10000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the declining trendline suggests medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above resistance would offer a conservative target of 11000*. Reversal below 9000 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"DAX\" alt=\"DAX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-dax.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 &#8211; 9000 ) = 11000<\/p>\n<p>The Footsie is also testing long-term resistance on the monthly chart &mdash; at 6900\/7000. The sharp rise on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong medium-term buying pressure, but resistance at the December 1999 high is likely to be solid. Reversal below 6500 remains unlikely.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"FTSE 100\" alt=\"FTSE 100\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-ftse.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite Index cleared resistance at 2440\/2500, signaling a primary up-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respect of its rising trendline confirms (medium-term) buying pressure. I remain wary of China. The recent rate-cut by the PBOC is cause for concern, not jubilation.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-ssec.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2500 + ( 2500 &#8211; 2000 ) = 3000<\/p>\n<p>Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 Index is headed for long-term resistance at 18000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above the zero line indicates long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 16500 is unlikely.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Nikkei 225 Index\" alt=\"Nikkei 225 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-n225.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 &#8211; 14000 ) = 18000<\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 is undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250\/5300 would indicate the primary up-trend is intact &mdash; but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would warn of a test of 5000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"ASX 200\" alt=\"ASX 200\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-xjo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 &#8211; 5300 ) = 6000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock markets in Western Europe and Asia are rallying on the strength of falling oil prices, joining the US in a bull trend. But primary producers, largely dependent on commodity exports, are likely to suffer as a result of falling prices. Australia is no exception. The S&amp;P 500 continues a primary advance. A conservative target &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/12\/01\/a-tale-of-two-economies-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;A tale of two economies&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[251,615,947,1481,2479,3010,3100],"class_list":["post-13754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-dax","tag-ftse-100","tag-nikkei-225-index","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A tale of two economies - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A tale of two economies - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock markets in Western Europe and Asia are rallying on the strength of falling oil prices, joining the US in a bull trend. But primary producers, largely dependent on commodity exports, are likely to suffer as a result of falling prices. Australia is no exception. The S&amp;P 500 continues a primary advance. 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But primary producers, largely dependent on commodity exports, are likely to suffer as a result of falling prices. Australia is no exception. The S&P 500 continues a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13761,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/03\/asx-breakout-on-rba-rate-cut\/","url_meta":{"origin":13754,"position":1},"title":"ASX breakout on RBA rate cut","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 3, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Australia's ASX 200 broke through resistance at 5660, signaling a fresh primary advance after several months in the doldrums. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Retracement to test new support at 5550\/5650 is likely, but the target for the advance is 6150*. * Target calculation: 5650 +\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-03-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-03-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-03-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13760,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/01\/29\/asx-rebounds\/","url_meta":{"origin":13754,"position":2},"title":"ASX rebounds","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 29, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"A low inflation outlook is likely to ease pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. The S&P 500 is testing support at 2000. Breach would warn of another correction, but the primary trend is intact. Respect of the secondary trendline would suggest this is likely to continue. Rising 13-week\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-01-29-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-01-29-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-01-29-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13765,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/03\/05\/market-strength\/","url_meta":{"origin":13754,"position":3},"title":"Market strength","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 5, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Apart from China and India, major markets continue to look bullish. The S&P 500 is retracing to test support at 2080\/2100, but respect is likely and would confirm an advance to 2200*. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow high above zero indicates strong long-term buying pressure. * Target calculation: 2100\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-03-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-03-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-03-05-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13759,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/01\/22\/sp-500-up-trend-continues\/","url_meta":{"origin":13754,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 up-trend continues","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 22, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 encountered solid support at 2000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Recovery above the descending trendline is likely and would indicate the end of the correction. Breakout above 2080 would confirm another advance with a target of 2200*. Failure of support is unlikely, but would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-01-22-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-01-22-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-01-22-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13763,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/19\/broad-market-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":13754,"position":5},"title":"Broad market rally","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 19, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Major indices across the US, Europe and Japan are displaying strong performance. China and India appear to be encountering stronger resistance, but should also be buoyed by the broad recovery. Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) is headed for another test of resistance at $182\/$184. Breakout would signal a primary advance,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fedex","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-fdx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13754\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}