{"id":13743,"date":"2014-09-27T09:00:41","date_gmt":"2014-09-27T09:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=809"},"modified":"2014-09-27T09:00:41","modified_gmt":"2014-09-27T09:00:41","slug":"market-turbulence-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/27\/market-turbulence-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Market turbulence"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Coincident Economic Activity Index above 0.2 indicates the US recovery is on track. Produced by the Philadelphia Fed, the index includes four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wages and salaries. Bellwether stock Fedex<\/a> also suggests rising economic activity.<\/p>\n

\"Coincident<\/p>\n

But contraction of the ECB balance sheet by € 1 Trillion over the last two years has pitched Europe back into recession.<\/p>\n

\n

Chart: ECB (Eurosystem) balance sheet. The target is to raise it by EUR 1 trillion – pic.twitter.com\/ptoqLkNpxq<\/a><\/p>\n

— SoberLook.com (@SoberLook) September 27, 2014<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Weakness in Europe and Asia has the capacity to retard performance of US stocks despite the domestic recovery.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Coincident Economic Activity Index above 0.2 indicates the US recovery is on track. Produced by the Philadelphia Fed, the index includes four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wages and salaries. Bellwether stock Fedex also suggests rising economic activity. But contraction of the ECB balance sheet by … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Market turbulence”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[624,728,1169],"class_list":["post-13743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-central-bank-balance-sheet","tag-coincident-economic-activity-index","tag-ecb"],"yoast_head":"\nMarket turbulence - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market turbulence - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A Coincident Economic Activity Index above 0.2 indicates the US recovery is on track. 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Produced by the Philadelphia Fed, the index includes four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wages and salaries. Bellwether stock Fedex also suggests rising economic activity. 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Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive relative to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44018,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/09\/confirmation-bias\/","url_meta":{"origin":13743,"position":2},"title":"More delay until recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 9, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"We have been barraged lately with opinions from respected market commentators -- like David Rosenberg and Steph Pomboy (Macro Mavens) -- warning of an imminent recession. But the data tells us otherwise. Weekly initial claims are still falling. Continued claims for unemployment are also trending lower. The Coincident Index refuses\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Initial Claims","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-08-initialclaims.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-08-initialclaims.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-08-initialclaims.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19882,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/07\/global-financial-markets-are-sinking\/","url_meta":{"origin":13743,"position":3},"title":"Global financial markets are sinking","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The current crisis is not caused by the coronavirus. Global financial markets have been at sea in a leaky boat for some time. Central bankers managed to plug the leaks, so far, but it is questionable whether they will be able to weather the approaching COVID-19 storm without sustaining long-term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63464,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/us-labor-market-and-cyclical-sectors-warn-of-a-contraction\/","url_meta":{"origin":13743,"position":4},"title":"US Labor Market and Cyclical Sectors Warn of a Contraction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 11, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, but employment in cyclical sectors is contracting, indicating a slowing economy. Declining cyclical indicators for housing, manufacturing, and transportation, and a declining Coincident Economic Activity Index, also warn of an economic slowdown. Average hourly earnings are growing at an annual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19985,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/14\/to-infinity-and-beyond\/","url_meta":{"origin":13743,"position":5},"title":"“To infinity and beyond…”","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 14, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"I know that Fed Chairman, Jay Powell, looks more like Woody than Buzz Lightyear but please allow me some leeway. 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