{"id":13739,"date":"2014-09-13T01:00:52","date_gmt":"2014-09-13T01:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=799"},"modified":"2014-09-13T01:00:52","modified_gmt":"2014-09-13T01:00:52","slug":"europe-uneasy-gold-and-crude-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/13\/europe-uneasy-gold-and-crude-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe uneasy, gold and crude fall"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Weekly highlights:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Dollar is strengthening<\/li>\n<li>Treasury yields (long-term) are rising<\/li>\n<li>Gold and crude oil are falling<\/li>\n<li>European stocks are bearish<\/li>\n<li>US stocks remain bullish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The tenuous ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine appears to be holding, but Europe faces another challenge this week, with a Scottish referendum on independence. Predictions of financial mayhem in the event of a &#8220;Yes&#8221; vote are, I feel, exaggerated in an attempt to influence the outcome. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/topical-events\/scottish-independence-referendum\">official position of the UK government<\/a> is:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;If a majority of those who vote want Scotland to be independent then Scotland would become an independent country after a process of negotiations.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The &#8220;process of negotiations&#8221; is likely to be comprehensive and would resolve most outstanding uncertainties in an orderly fashion. There has been much debate over economic issues, but it is no coincidence that the referendum is being held in the same year as the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn, when Scots under Robert the Bruce defeated an English army led by Edward II to regain their independence.<\/p>\n<h3>Stock markets<\/h3>\n<p>Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 remains hesitant, retreating from resistance at 3300. Consolidation above 3200 would be a bullish sign, while breach of 3100 would threaten primary support at 3000. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate buying pressure, but reversal below zero would warn of a down-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-12-stoxx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 &#8211; 3000 ) = 3600<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is edging lower and follow-through below 1980 would indicate another correction. Respect of support at 1950, however, would suggest that the up-trend is intact. Sideways movement on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, reflects further consolidation.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-12-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 &#8211; 1900 ) = 2100<\/p>\n<p>CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 is typical of a bull market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-12-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite Index breakout above 2250 signals a primary up-trend. The monthly chart, however, reflects further resistance at 2450\/2500*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates accelerating buying pressure. Reversal below 2250 is most unlikely, but would suggest further consolidation between 2000 and 2250.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-12-ssec.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 &#8211; 2000 ) = 2500<\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 broke support at 5540\/5560, warning of a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Respect of support at 5440\/5460 would indicate that the primary up-trend is intact, while a fall below 5360 would warn of a down-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"ASX 200\" alt=\"ASX 200\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-12-xjo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 &#8211; 5450 ) = 5850<\/p>\n<h3>Gold &amp; crude fall<\/h3>\n<p>Gold broke support at $1240\/ounce to signal a primary down-trend. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, strengthens the signal. Follow-through below $1200 would confirm. The sell-off is being driven by a rising Dollar.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Spot Gold\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-12-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Crude oil is also falling, with Brent Crude testing its 18-month low. Nymex breach of $92\/barrel would also signal a primary down-trend.\n<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Nymex and Brent Crude\" alt=\"Nymex and Brent Crude\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-12-crude.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>From Nick Cunningham at <a href='http:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Oil-Prices\/No-Rebound-In-Sight-For-Sliding-Oil-Prices.html'>Oilprice.com<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The glut of supplies and weak demand is causing problems for OPEC, according to the cartel&#8217;s monthly report. OPEC lowered its demand projection for 2015 by 200,000 and in August, Saudi Arabia cut production by 400,000 bpd in an effort to stem oversupply.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>It is probably no coincidence, but lower oil prices will hurt the Russian economy. As Nick points out:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Russia needs between $110 and $117 per barrel to finance its spending, which means the Kremlin can&#8217;t be happy as it watches Brent prices continue to drop. Combined with an already weak economy, Russia could see its $19 billion surplus become a deficit by the end of the year. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Falling oil prices will benefit the global economy in the medium-term. Subduing Russia&#8217;s territorial ambitions will be an added bonus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weekly highlights: The Dollar is strengthening Treasury yields (long-term) are rising Gold and crude oil are falling European stocks are bearish US stocks remain bullish The tenuous ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine appears to be holding, but Europe faces another challenge this week, with a Scottish referendum on independence. Predictions of financial mayhem in the event &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/13\/europe-uneasy-gold-and-crude-fall\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Europe uneasy, gold and crude fall&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,495,615,1103,2529,3010,3053,3100,3204],"class_list":["post-13739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-brent-crude","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-dow-jones-euro-stoxx-50","tag-nymex-wti-light-crude","tag-sp-500","tag-scotland-independence","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Europe uneasy, gold and crude fall - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Europe uneasy, gold and crude fall - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Weekly highlights: The Dollar is strengthening Treasury yields (long-term) are rising Gold and crude oil are falling European stocks are bearish US stocks remain bullish The tenuous ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine appears to be holding, but Europe faces another challenge this week, with a Scottish referendum on independence. 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Predictions of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-12-stoxx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-12-stoxx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-12-stoxx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10927,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/19\/scotlands-no-vote\/","url_meta":{"origin":13739,"position":1},"title":"Scotland&#8217;s &#8220;No&#8221; vote","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 19, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Scots voted \"No\" to independence, with a clear 55% to 45% majority. Alex Salmond has announced he will resign as First Minister and SNP leader, with the words: \"For me as leader my time is nearly over, but for Scotland the campaign continues and the dream shall never die.\" Like\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":50484,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/28\/strong-liquidity-and-a-weak-yuan-boost-stocks-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":13739,"position":2},"title":"Strong liquidity and a weak Yuan boost stocks &#038; Gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 28, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($IQX) closed at a new record high above 6800. The advance signals that the current rally is finding broader support and is not as concentrated on the top 7 mega-cap technology stocks. Retracement on the Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) respected support at 200,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($IQX)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-28-iqx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-28-iqx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-28-iqx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16246,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/05\/aussie-gold-stocks-breakout\/","url_meta":{"origin":13739,"position":3},"title":"Aussie gold stocks breakout","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dollar rally continues, with the Dollar Index headed for a test of resistance at 95. Penetration of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on the Trend Index indicates buying pressure. But rising crude prices weaken Dollar demand. Despite the Dollar rally, Spot Gold found\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10704,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/24\/tom-devine-why-i-now-say-yes-to-independence-for-scotland\/","url_meta":{"origin":13739,"position":4},"title":"Tom Devine: Why I now say yes to independence for Scotland","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 24, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Tom Devine, Scotland\u2019s most celebrated historian of recent years, reveals why he now intends to vote in favor of independence on September 18: I come from a Labour background that includes my grandfather, mother and father and I was very much anti-independence at the start of the campaign. For me,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16293,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/18\/gold-stocks-retreat\/","url_meta":{"origin":13739,"position":5},"title":"Gold stocks retreat","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 18, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dollar rally continues, with the Dollar Index heading for a test of resistance at 95. Penetration of the long-term descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on the Trend Index indicates buying pressure. But rising crude prices still threaten to weaken the Dollar. Spot Gold broke\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13739","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13739"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13739\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}