{"id":13738,"date":"2014-09-06T22:20:35","date_gmt":"2014-09-06T22:20:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=797"},"modified":"2014-09-06T22:20:35","modified_gmt":"2014-09-06T22:20:35","slug":"european-ceasefire-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/06\/european-ceasefire-2\/","title":{"rendered":"European ceasefire"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Neil MacFarquhar reports in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2014\/09\/06\/world\/europe\/ukraine-cease-fire.html\">The New York Times<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>After five months of intensifying combat that threatened to rip Ukraine apart and to reignite the Cold War, the Ukrainian government and separatist forces signed a cease-fire agreement on Friday that analysts considered highly tenuous in a country that remains a tinderbox&#8230;..<\/p>\n<p>The agreement resembles, almost verbatim, a proposal for a truce issued by President Petro O. Poroshenko in June.<\/p>\n<p>It includes amnesty for those who disarm and who did not commit serious crimes, and the exchange of all prisoners. Militias will be disbanded, and a 10-kilometer buffer zone \u2014 about six miles \u2014 will be established along the Russian-Ukrainian border. The area will be subject to joint patrols. The separatists have agreed to leave the administrative buildings they control and to allow broadcasts from Ukraine to resume on local television&#8230;.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>There appears plenty of skepticism as to whether the ceasefire will hold&#8230; and whether Russian forces will withdraw, but markets welcomed the announcement.<\/p>\n<p>Germany&#8217;s DAX is testing resistance at 9700\/9800. Breakout would indicate a fresh advance, while follow-through above 10000 would confirm a target of 11000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero suggests selling pressure is easing. Retreat below 9250, however, would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"DAX\" alt=\"DAX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-05-dax.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 &#8211; 9000 ) = 11000<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 rallied above 2000. Follow-through above 2010 would confirm an advance to 2100*. Sideways movement on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, suggests further consolidation. Reversal below 1990 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-05-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 &#8211; 1900 ) = 2100<\/p>\n<p>CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains low, typical of a bull market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-05-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Shanghai Composite Index, responding to PBOC stimulus, broke resistance at 2250 to signal a primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates accelerating buying pressure. Target for the advance is 2500*. Reversal below 2250 is unlikely, but would suggest further consolidation between 2000 and 2250.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-05-ssec.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 &#8211; 2000 ) = 2500<\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 broke short-term support at 5620, but with both US and Chinese markets entering a bull phase retracement is likely to be short-lived. Breakout above 5680 would confirm an advance to 5850*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure, but a trough above zero would indicate that buyers are back in control. Reversal below 5540 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"ASX 200\" alt=\"ASX 200\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-05-xjo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 &#8211; 5450 ) = 5850<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Neil MacFarquhar reports in The New York Times: After five months of intensifying combat that threatened to rip Ukraine apart and to reignite the Cold War, the Ukrainian government and separatist forces signed a cease-fire agreement on Friday that analysts considered highly tenuous in a country that remains a tinderbox&#8230;.. The agreement resembles, almost verbatim, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/06\/european-ceasefire-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;European ceasefire&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,615,619,947,3006,3010,3100,3521],"class_list":["post-13738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-ceasefire","tag-dax","tag-russia","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>European ceasefire - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"European ceasefire - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Neil MacFarquhar reports in The New York Times: After five months of intensifying combat that threatened to rip Ukraine apart and to reignite the Cold War, the Ukrainian government and separatist forces signed a cease-fire agreement on Friday that analysts considered highly tenuous in a country that remains a tinderbox&#8230;.. 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Follow-through above 4400 would be a short-term bull signal. Markets were lifted by reports of progress on a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement -- although that is unlikely to affect sanctions on Russia this year -- while\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-16-spx.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10929,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/19\/trouble-in-the-east\/","url_meta":{"origin":13738,"position":2},"title":"Trouble in the East","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 19, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania plan to form a common brigade: Agreement on a joint Ukraine-Poland-Lithuania military brigade signed in Warsaw - v @DefenceU https:\/\/t.co\/12beNEuXrU pic.twitter.com\/20f1x2z800\u2014 Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) September 19, 2014 Ben Judah, author of Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In And Out Of Love With Vladimir Putin observes: \"This\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Garry Kasparov on Putin","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/garry-kasparov.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/garry-kasparov.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/garry-kasparov.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11022,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/29\/2-ukrainian-soldiers-provide-more-evidence-of-russian-military-participation-in-fighting-in-the-eastern-ukraine\/","url_meta":{"origin":13738,"position":3},"title":"Ukrainian Soldiers Provide More Evidence of Russian Military Participation in Eastern Ukraine","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 29, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Matthew Aid reports that captured Ukrainian soldiers offer new evidence of direct Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine: Stepping out of a bus on at dusk on Sunday during a prisoner exchange, Alexei Koshelenko said he was captured during heavy fighting on Aug. 24-25 near the town of Ilovaysk, east\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13741,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/20\/trouble-in-the-east-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":13738,"position":4},"title":"Trouble in the East","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 20, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania plan to form a common brigade: https:\/\/twitter.com\/olgatokariuk\/status\/513037782621904896 Ben Judah, author of Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In And Out Of Love With Vladimir Putin observes: \"This emerging military alliance between Ukraine and Poland\/Lithuania is a sign that the US\/EU ability to control it allies decreasing fast.\"\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Garry Kasparov on Putin","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/garry-kasparov.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/garry-kasparov.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/garry-kasparov.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31322,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/04\/putin-doubles-down\/","url_meta":{"origin":13738,"position":5},"title":"Oil &#038; gas: Putin doubles down","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 4, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Vladimir Putin has doubled down on his strategy to crush military opposition in Ukraine. Russia's military suffered initial setbacks when they tried to seize the Kyiv in a matter of days -- using rapid advances on multiple fronts -- a strategy for which they were ill-equipped. 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