{"id":13737,"date":"2014-08-29T22:17:16","date_gmt":"2014-08-29T22:17:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=795"},"modified":"2014-08-29T22:17:16","modified_gmt":"2014-08-29T22:17:16","slug":"war-in-europe-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/29\/war-in-europe-2\/","title":{"rendered":"War in Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Vladimir Putin has escalated the conflict in Eastern Ukraine with new incursions of tanks backed with artillery, anti-aircraft missile systems and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.matthewaid.com\/post\/96076970541\/russian-human-rights-group-publishes-list-of-russian\">up to 15,000 Russian troops<\/a>. Intent on seizing as much territory as possible, he is banking on the US\/European coalition responding with another slap on the wrist. Each weak response has only made Putin bolder. But where he may miscalculate is that the coalition is aware that its &#8220;stick-and-carrot&#8221; policy has failed and will be looking for a new approach.<\/p>\n<p>Willingness of the Europeans to endure immediate economic pain in the belief that this will avert a long-term calamity is yet to be tested. Success will depend on France, Spain and Italy&#8217;s support for their Northern and Central European neighbours, who face a more immediate threat.<\/p>\n<p>A significant step-up in sanctions is likely and the initial response from European markets will be negative. Sanctions are a two-edged sword and likely to hurt Europe almost as much as they do Russia. But NATO rearmament in the medium-term would somewhat offset the initial cost. Never underestimate the stimulus effect of war on local industry &mdash; provided the war is fought outside one&#8217;s borders<\/p>\n<p>Germany&#8217;s DAX is running into stiff resistance as it approaches 9750. And 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure, threatening a reversal. Retreat below 9250 would strengthen the signal and failure of support at 8900\/9000 would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"DAX\" alt=\"DAX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-dax.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 9000 &#8211; ( 10000 &#8211; 9000 ) = 8000<\/p>\n<p>Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 reversal below 3100 and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would add further weight to the (bear) signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50\" alt=\"Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-stoxx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 3000 &#8211; ( 3300 &#8211; 3000 ) = 2700<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500, unfazed by recent developments in Europe, broke resistance at 2000 to signal an advance to 2100*. A 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates rising (medium-term) buying pressure. Reversal below 1990 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 &#8211; 1900 ) = 2100<\/p>\n<p>CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), shown here on a ten-year chart, indicates low risk typical of a bull market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Shanghai Composite Index, responding to PBOC stimulus, is testing resistance at 2250. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend, signaling an advance to 2500*. Respect of resistance is less likely, but would suggest further consolidation.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-ssec.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 &#8211; 2000 ) = 2500<\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5650. Continued strength in US and Chinese stocks would improve the chance of an ASX 200 breakout, suggesting an advance to 5850*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow &mdash; shown here on a monthly chart &mdash; continues to warn of long-term selling pressure. But failure to cross below zero would negate this and completion of another trough above zero would indicate that buyers are back in control. Reversal below 5450 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"ASX 200\" alt=\"ASX 200\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-xjo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 &#8211; 5450 ) = 5850<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vladimir Putin has escalated the conflict in Eastern Ukraine with new incursions of tanks backed with artillery, anti-aircraft missile systems and up to 15,000 Russian troops. Intent on seizing as much territory as possible, he is banking on the US\/European coalition responding with another slap on the wrist. Each weak response has only made Putin &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/29\/war-in-europe-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;War in Europe&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,615,947,1103,3006,3010,3100,3521,3614],"class_list":["post-13737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-dax","tag-dow-jones-euro-stoxx-50","tag-russia","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>War in Europe - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"War in Europe - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Vladimir Putin has escalated the conflict in Eastern Ukraine with new incursions of tanks backed with artillery, anti-aircraft missile systems and up to 15,000 Russian troops. Intent on seizing as much territory as possible, he is banking on the US\/European coalition responding with another slap on the wrist. 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Listen to the @PowerVertical podcast: http:\/\/t.co\/GIOmQSCLY0\u2014 RFE\/RL (@RFERL) August 2, 2014 Vladimir Putin has long shown himself to be ruthless and cynical. But also pragmatic and rational. In his third term in the Kremlin, however, and particularly in the Ukraine crisis,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9877,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/24\/putin-wants-business-as-usual-so-do-western-businesses-bloomberg-view\/","url_meta":{"origin":13737,"position":1},"title":"Putin Wants Business as Usual. So Do Western Businesses. &#8211; Bloomberg View","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 24, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Leonid Bershidsky writes: Vladimir Lenin famously lambasted \"bourgeois intellectuals\" for taking \"one step forward and two steps back.\" Vladimir Putin believes in the opposite formula: Having taken two steps forward in Ukraine, he is now taking a step back. Read more at Putin Wants Business as Usual. So Do Western\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9402,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/03\/08\/europes-five-deadly-sins-on-ukraine-carnegie-europe\/","url_meta":{"origin":13737,"position":2},"title":"Europe\u2019s Five Deadly Sins on Ukraine | Carnegie Europe","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 8, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Jan Techau of Carnegie Europe writes: ....In recent years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has talked about the Kremlin\u2019s fears of Western encirclement. He has declared that EU and NATO enlargement are part of a conspiracy to destroy Russia, that Ukraine is not really a sovereign nation, and that Western agents\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10400,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/26\/it-started-with-a-super-bowl-ring-now-putin-is-taking-whole-countries\/","url_meta":{"origin":13737,"position":3},"title":"It started with a Super Bowl ring, now Putin is taking whole countries","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Kraft, owner of the New England Patriots, says Vladimir Putin stole his prize Super Bowl ring in 2005: \u201cI took out the ring and showed it to [Putin], and he put it on and he goes, \u2018I can kill someone with this ring.' I put my hand out and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36153,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/04\/fiona-hill-putin-is-pushing-our-buttons\/","url_meta":{"origin":13737,"position":4},"title":"Fiona Hill | Putin is pushing our buttons","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 4, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"British-born Fiona Hill is an expert on Russia and Vladimir Putin and served as security adviser to US Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Her take on Russia's invasion of Ukraine is that Vladimir Putin still thinks he is winning. The Kremlin has a far higher tolerance\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/pZ3DQv5KNQE\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":12448,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/26\/putins-crimean-gamble-russia-ukraine-and-the-new-cold-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":13737,"position":5},"title":"Putin\u2019s Crimean gamble: Russia, Ukraine, and the new Cold War","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 26, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 From the Brookings Institute: Since the time of Catherine the Great, Crimea has been a global tinderbox. Most recently, the world was stunned when the forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded and seized Crimea in March 2014. In the months since, Putin\u2019s actions in Crimea, eastern Ukraine and,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13737"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13737\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}