{"id":13732,"date":"2014-08-02T00:12:47","date_gmt":"2014-08-02T00:12:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=728"},"modified":"2014-08-02T00:12:47","modified_gmt":"2014-08-02T00:12:47","slug":"europe-leads-markets-lower-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/02\/europe-leads-markets-lower-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe leads markets lower"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Summary:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Europe retreats as the Ukraine\/Russia crisis escalates.<\/li>\n<li>S&amp;P 500 displays milder selling pressure and the primary trend remains intact.<\/li>\n<li>VIX continues to indicate a bull market.<\/li>\n<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite is bullish in the medium-term.<\/li>\n<li>ASX 200 may experience a secondary correction, but the primary trend displays buying support.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>European leaders are waking up to the seriousness of the menace posed by Russia in the East, summed up in a recent <a href=\"http:\/\/www.spiegel.de\/international\/world\/spiegel-editorial-time-to-impose-tough-sanctions-on-russia-a-983210.html\">Der Spiegel<\/a> editorial:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Europe, and we Germans, will certainly have to pay a price for sanctions. But the price would be incomparably greater were Putin allowed to continue to violate international law. Peace and security in Europe would then be in serious danger.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Vladimir Putin will not alter course because of a light slap on the wrist. President Obama is going to have to find Teddy Roosevelt&#8217;s &#8220;big stick&#8221; &mdash; misplacement of which is largely responsible for Russia&#8217;s current flagrant disregard of national borders. And Europe is going to have to endure real pain in order to face down the Russian threat in the East. Delivery of <a href=\"http:\/\/en.ria.ru\/news\/20140730\/191477624\/Mistral-Deal-With-Russia-Unaffected-by-Sanctions--French.html\">French Mistral warships<\/a>, for example, would show that Europe remains divided and will encourage the Russian bear to take even bolder steps.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said, however, that he doubted France would cancel the deal, despite coming under pressure from other Western leaders: &#8220;This is billions of euros. The French are very pragmatic. I doubt it [that the deal will be canceled].&#8221;<br \/>\n&mdash; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.themoscowtimes.com\/business\/article\/france-russia-mistral-deal-is-now-unthinkable-cameron-says\/503838.html\">The Moscow Times<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The whole of Europe is likely to have to share the cost of cancelling deals like this, but it is important to do so and present a united front.<\/p>\n<p>Markets reacted negatively to the latest escalation, with Dow Jones Europe Index falling almost 6% over the last month. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum dipped below zero after several months of bearish divergence, warning not necessarily of a primary down-trend, but of a serious test of primary support at 315. Respect of 325 and the rising trendline would reassure that the primary trend is intact.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Dow Jones Europe Index\" alt=\"Dow Jones Europe Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-01-djeu.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 displays milder selling pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow and the correction is likely to test the rising trendline and support at 1850\/1900, but not primary support at 1750. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would signal a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Recovery above 2000 is unlikely at present, but breakout would offer a (long-term) target of 2250*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-01-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1500 + ( 1500 &#8211; 750 ) = 2250<\/p>\n<p>CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked upwards, but remains low by historical standards and continues to suggest a bull market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-01-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite Index broke resistance at 2150, suggesting a primary up-trend, but I will wait for confirmation from a follow-through above 2250. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 2050 is unlikely at present but would warn of another test of primary support at 1990\/2000. The PBOC is simply kicking the can down the road by injecting more liquidity into the banking system. That may defer the eventual day of reckoning by a year or two, but it cannot be avoided. And each time the problem is deferred, it grows bigger. So the medium-term outlook may be improving, but I still have doubts about the long-term.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Shanghai Composite\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-01-ssec.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2000 &#8211; ( 2150 &#8211; 2000 ) = 1850<\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 is likely to retrace to test the rising trendline around 5450, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero continues to indicate buying support. Recovery above 5600 is unlikely at present, but would present a target of 5800*. Reversal below 5050 would signal a trend change, but that is most unlikely despite current bearishness.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"ASX 200\" alt=\"ASX 200\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-01-xjo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 &#8211; 5000 ) = 5800<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\">\n<p>Speak softly and carry a big stick.<\/p>\n<p>~ President Theodore Roosevelt, describing his style of foreign policy which he later explained as &#8220;The exercise of intelligent forethought and of decisive action sufficiently far in advance of any likely crisis.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary: Europe retreats as the Ukraine\/Russia crisis escalates. S&amp;P 500 displays milder selling pressure and the primary trend remains intact. VIX continues to indicate a bull market. China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite is bullish in the medium-term. ASX 200 may experience a secondary correction, but the primary trend displays buying support. European leaders are waking up to &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/02\/europe-leads-markets-lower-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Europe leads markets lower&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,615,1105,1285,1300,1475,3006,3010,3100,3521,3614],"class_list":["post-13732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-dow-jones-europe-index","tag-eu","tag-europe","tag-french-mistral-warships","tag-russia","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Europe leads markets lower - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Europe leads markets lower - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary: Europe retreats as the Ukraine\/Russia crisis escalates. S&amp;P 500 displays milder selling pressure and the primary trend remains intact. VIX continues to indicate a bull market. China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite is bullish in the medium-term. ASX 200 may experience a secondary correction, but the primary trend displays buying support. 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S&P 500 displays milder selling pressure and the primary trend remains intact. VIX continues to indicate a bull market. China's Shanghai Composite is bullish in the medium-term. ASX 200 may experience a secondary correction, but the primary trend displays buying support. European\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Europe Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-01-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-01-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-01-djeu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13737,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/29\/war-in-europe-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":13732,"position":1},"title":"War in Europe","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 29, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Vladimir Putin has escalated the conflict in Eastern Ukraine with new incursions of tanks backed with artillery, anti-aircraft missile systems and up to 15,000 Russian troops. Intent on seizing as much territory as possible, he is banking on the US\/European coalition responding with another slap on the wrist. Each weak\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"DAX","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-dax.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-dax.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-dax.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10767,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/29\/war-in-europe\/","url_meta":{"origin":13732,"position":2},"title":"War in Europe","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 29, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Vladimir Putin has escalated the conflict in Eastern Ukraine with new incursions of tanks backed with artillery, anti-aircraft missile systems and up to 15,000 Russian troops. Intent on seizing as much territory as possible, he is banking on the US\/European coalition responding with another slap on the wrist. Each weak\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"DAX","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-dax.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-dax.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-30-dax.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13733,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/09\/europe-tests-primary-support-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":13732,"position":3},"title":"Europe tests primary support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 9, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary: Europe threatens reversal to a down-trend. S&P 500 finds support. VIX continues to indicate a bull market. China's Shanghai Composite encounters selling pressure. ASX 200 experiences a secondary correction. Dow Jones Europe Index is testing the primary trendline and support at 315. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Europe Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10577,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/08\/europe-tests-primary-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":13732,"position":4},"title":"Europe tests primary support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 8, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary: Europe threatens reversal to a down-trend. S&P 500 finds support. VIX continues to indicate a bull market. China's Shanghai Composite encounters selling pressure. ASX 200 experiences a secondary correction. Dow Jones Europe Index is testing the primary trendline and support at 315. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Europe Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13735,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/16\/sp-500-recovers-but-europe-remains-weak-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":13732,"position":5},"title":"S&#038;P 500 recovers but Europe remains weak","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 16, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Europe continues to test support. S&P 500 recovers. VIX continues to indicate a bull market. China bullish. ASX 200 recovers. Dow Jones Europe Index continues to test its primary trendline and support at 315\/325. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at 315\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Europe Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-djeu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13732\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}