{"id":13725,"date":"2015-09-17T04:30:28","date_gmt":"2015-09-17T04:30:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1208"},"modified":"2024-04-18T05:00:54","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T05:00:54","slug":"will-the-fed-hike-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/09\/17\/will-the-fed-hike-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the Fed hike rates?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The market eagerly awaits the decision of the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) on whether to lift the target interest rate (FFR) from its 0.00 – 0.25 percent range maintained since the dark days of 2008.<\/p>\n

\"Core<\/p>\n

Core CPI remains subdued at 1.83 percent for the 12 months to August — close to its 2 percent target — so there is no urgency to increase rates despite a strengthening job market.<\/p>\n

The act of revising the target rate is largely symbolic. There is no doubt that the economy can withstand an increase in the Fed Funds Rate to 0.5%. But commencement of a tightening cycle may scare an already jittery market. There is a fairly equal split amongst economists as to whether the Fed should proceed with the rate rise or not. My guess is that the Fed will opt for a bet each way, with a wider target range (say 0.00 to 0.50 percent) or a reduced increment (say 0.10 to 0.30 percent). The effective FFR is currently sitting at 0.14 percent and I am sure the Fed’s plan is to continue with a gradual increase over time and no sudden movements.<\/p>\n

\"Effective<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 2000 after a higher trough and rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Recovery above 2000 would signal a relieving rally, while respect of resistance would suggest another test of support at 1900.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1900 – ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 1800<\/p>\n

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates market risk is declining.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

NYSE short sales are also declining.<\/p>\n

\"NYSE<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above resistance at 16700. Follow-through after the FOMC decision would confirm a relieving rally. Reversal below 16600 would warn of another test of 16000. Failure of support at 16000 is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. <\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX 60 recovered above 800, indicating solid support between 790 and 800. Recovery above 820 and the descending channel would signal that the correction has ended. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal, while recovery above zero would confirm.<\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 800 – ( 900 – 800 ) = 700<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

Germany’s DAX found support at 10000. Recovery above 10500 would suggest a relieving rally, but only follow-through above the descending trendline and resistance at 11000 would confirm. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow is a bullish sign; completion of a trough above zero would confirm long-term buying pressure.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

The Footsie similarly found support at 6000. Recovery above 6300 would indicate a relieving rally. Penetration of the descending trendline would confirm.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

The Shanghai Composite Index continues to test (enforced) support at 3000. Recovery above 3500 is unlikely, but would indicate that the crisis has passed.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index found support at 21000 and is likely to test the former primary support level at 23000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates long-term selling pressure, but recovery above zero would suggest a false signal. Breakout above 23000 and the descending trendline is unlikely, but would signal that the down-trend is over.<\/p>\n

\"Hang<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 found support at 17500. Recovery above 19000 would signal a rally to test resistance at 21000. The gradual decline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term selling pressure rather than a primary (long-term) shift.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 19000 + ( 19000 – 17500 ) = 20500<\/p>\n

India’s Sensex is headed for a test of the new resistance level at 26500. The primary trend is downward. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Recovery above 26500 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap<\/a>. Respect of resistance remains more likely and would suggest another decline.<\/p>\n

\"SENSEX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 25000 – ( 26500 – 25000 ) = 23500<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

The ASX 200 continues to test primary support at 5000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero indicates uncertainty. Breach of 5000 would confirm a primary down-trend. Recovery above 5300 is less likely, but would indicate a bear rally.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 4600<\/p>\n

Just a word of caution. Relieving rallies can (and often do) fail. Probability of a continued primary up-trend will only improve once support levels have been tested. Early movers always face greater uncertainty. Which is why our long-term portfolios continue to hold high levels of cash.<\/p>\n

\n
\nMore….
\n<\/a>
\n<\/h2>\n

\n\t\t\t\tWhy Europe Failed<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tNot much wrong with the US economy<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tNYSE short sales easing<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n

\n\t\t\t\tMarcus Miller & Eric Clapton [music]<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h4>\n
\n

\nYou really wonder why leaders want these jobs when they really do not want to lead. And what is their risk? That Barack Obama will not get a second term? Or that Angela Merkel’s coalition might finally end up on the rocks? If they actually made the leap they might astound themselves. Because, in the end, everyone in political life gets carried out — the only relevant question is whether the pallbearers will be crying.\n<\/p>\n

~ Paul Keating, 24th Prime Minister of Australia (2011)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The market eagerly awaits the decision of the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) on whether to lift the target interest rate (FFR) from its 0.00 – 0.25 percent range maintained since the dark days of 2008. Core CPI remains subdued at 1.83 percent for the 12 months to August — close to its 2 percent … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Will the Fed hike rates?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,507,818,947,1113,1353,1429,1481,1644,2478,2535,3010,3100,3503],"class_list":["post-13725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-bse-sensex","tag-core-cpi","tag-dax","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-fed-funds-rate","tag-fomc","tag-ftse-100","tag-hang-seng-index","tag-nikkei-225","tag-nyse-short-sales","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-tsx-60"],"yoast_head":"\nWill the Fed hike rates? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will the Fed hike rates? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The market eagerly awaits the decision of the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) on whether to lift the target interest rate (FFR) from its 0.00 – 0.25 percent range maintained since the dark days of 2008. 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We are moving our policy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43191,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/27\/more-than-two-rate-hikes-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":13725,"position":1},"title":"More than two rate hikes ahead?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The FOMC announced another 25 basis point rate hike on July 26. The target maximum of 5.50% is the highest level for the fed funds rate in 22 years. Inflation is falling, with monthly CPI and core CPI (annualized) close to the Fed's 2.0% target. We expect an uptick in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate Target - Maximum","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42536,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/15\/dollar-falls-as-fed-skips\/","url_meta":{"origin":13725,"position":2},"title":"Dollar falls as Fed “skips”","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 15, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed held rates steady as expected, maintaining the target range for the fed funds rate at 5.0% to 5.25%. A \"Hawkish Skip\" While standing pat, the FOMC maintained a hawkish bias, with the Chairman Powell announcing at the Press Conference: \"....nearly all Committee participants expect that it will be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"FOMC Economic Projections","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-14-fomc-dots2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-14-fomc-dots2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-14-fomc-dots2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-14-fomc-dots2.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":40882,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/02\/15\/40882\/","url_meta":{"origin":13725,"position":3},"title":"CPI: Inflation proving persistent","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 15, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Consumer price index (CPI) growth slowed to 6.3% for the 12-months to January, from 6.4% in December. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, slowed to 5.5%, from 5.7% in December. Monthly figures show a resurgence in CPI, recording a 0.52% increase in January (6.2% annualized), while core CPI was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-15-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-15-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-15-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":54437,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/13\/falling-cpi-lifts-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":13725,"position":4},"title":"Falling CPI lifts markets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 13, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed kept rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting. The dot plot now projects one rate cut by year-end, compared to three cuts at the March FOMC meeting. Low CPI for May boosted financial markets, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.3%, lifting stocks higher. Precious metals also\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-12-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-12-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-12-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42521,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/14\/cpi-base-effects-give-the-fed-room-to-pause\/","url_meta":{"origin":13725,"position":5},"title":"CPI base effects give the Fed room to pause","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 14, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index (CPI) fell sharply to 4.13% for the 12 months to May, while the decline in core CPI was more modest, easing to 5.33%. We can expect another sharp drop in June due to base effects. The huge spike in monthly CPI from May - June last\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Inflation"","block_context":{"text":"Inflation","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/inflation-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-13-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-13-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-13-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13725"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51359,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13725\/revisions\/51359"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}