{"id":13721,"date":"2014-05-21T05:08:01","date_gmt":"2014-05-21T05:08:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=616"},"modified":"2014-05-21T05:08:01","modified_gmt":"2014-05-21T05:08:01","slug":"is-the-market-over-priced","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/21\/is-the-market-over-priced\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the market over-priced?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In my <a href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2014\/05\/21\/is-the-market-overpriced-episode-iv\/\" title=\"Is the market overpriced? Episode IV\" target=\"_blank\">last post<\/a> I concluded that the same factors driving rising inequality &mdash; new technologies and access to cheap labor through increased globalization &mdash; may also be driving a sustainable increase in corporate profits. While we may be understandably wary of &#8220;this time is different&#8221;, consider the following:<\/p>\n<p>The rise of China as a trading partner over the last two decades.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"315\" title=\"US Imports from China\" alt=\"US Imports from China\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-22-china-imports.png?resize=525%2C315&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Corporate profits at 11% of GNP suggest a new paradigm when compared to the historic (normal) range of 5% to 7%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"315\" title=\"Corporate Profits\/GNP\" alt=\"Corporate Profits\/GNP\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-22-profits-gnp.png?resize=525%2C315&#038;ssl=1\" \/> <\/p>\n<p>The decline in employee compensation as a percentage of corporate value added mirrors the rise in corporate profits.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"315\" title=\"Employee Compensation\/Value Added\" alt=\"Employee Compensation\/Value Added\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-22-compensation-corporate-va.png?resize=525%2C315&#038;ssl=1\" \/> <\/p>\n<p>And Robert Shiller&#8217;s CAPE, normally used to argue that the market is currently overpriced. If we stood in 1994 and looked at the range of CAPE values for the past century, we would no doubt have concluded that a CAPE value greater than 20 indicates the market is overpriced. In the last two decades, the CAPE only briefly dipped below 20 at the height of the global financial crisis. Now pundits argue that a CAPE value greater than 25 indicates the market is overpriced. Something has definitely changed. <\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"381\" title=\"Shiller CAPE\" alt=\"Shiller CAPE\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/shiller-cape.png?resize=525%2C381&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Whether the change is sustainable, only time will tell. But one thing is clear. Of the 466 corporations who have so far reported earnings for the first quarter 2014, 77% have either beaten (68%) or met (9%) their estimates. Corporate profits are not in imminent danger of collapse.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In my last post I concluded that the same factors driving rising inequality &mdash; new technologies and access to cheap labor through increased globalization &mdash; may also be driving a sustainable increase in corporate profits. While we may be understandably wary of &#8220;this time is different&#8221;, consider the following: The rise of China as a &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/21\/is-the-market-over-priced\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Is the market over-priced?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[567,663,831,1577,1826],"class_list":["post-13721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-cape","tag-china","tag-corporate-profits","tag-gnp","tag-inequality"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the market over-priced? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the market over-priced? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In my last post I concluded that the same factors driving rising inequality &mdash; new technologies and access to cheap labor through increased globalization &mdash; may also be driving a sustainable increase in corporate profits. 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Episode V","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 21, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"In my last post I concluded that the same factors driving rising inequality \u2014 new technologies and access to cheap labor through increased globalization \u2014 may also be driving a sustainable increase in corporate profits. While we may be understandably wary of \"this time is different\", consider the following: The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Imports from China","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-22-china-imports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-22-china-imports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-22-china-imports.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11979,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/25\/are-us-stocks-really-over-valued\/","url_meta":{"origin":13721,"position":1},"title":"Are US stocks really over-valued?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 25, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock Market Capitalization Let us start with Warren Buffet's favorite market valuation ratio: stock market capitalization to GDP. I have modified this slightly, replacing GDP with GNP, because the former excludes offshore earnings \u2014 a significant factor for multinationals. The ratio of stock market capitalization to GNP now exceeds the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US stock market capitalization to GNP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9840,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/21\/is-the-market-overpriced-episode-iv\/","url_meta":{"origin":13721,"position":2},"title":"Is the market overpriced? Episode IV","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 21, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"In my last post I said that, with interest rates, tax rates and real wages at historic lows, corporations are likely to make fat profits over the next few years and stocks remain reasonably buoyant. But at least one of these factors can be expected to change. Recovery of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13774,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/25\/are-us-stocks-really-over-valued-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":13721,"position":3},"title":"Are US stocks really over-valued?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 25, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Let us start with Warren Buffet's favorite market valuation ratio: stock market capitalization to GDP. I have modified this slightly, replacing GDP with GNP, because the former excludes offshore earnings \u2014 a significant factor for multinationals. The ratio of stock market capitalization to GNP now exceeds the highs of 2005\/2006,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US stock market capitalization to GNP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11221,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/30\/are-corporate-profit-margins-sustainable\/","url_meta":{"origin":13721,"position":4},"title":"Are corporate profit margins sustainable?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 30, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Market capitalization as a percentage of (US) GNP is climbing and some commentators have been predicting a reversion to the mean \u2014 a substantial fall in market cap. But corporate profits have been climbing at a similar rate. Wages surged as a percentage of value added in the first quarter\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Market Cap to GNP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-30-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-30-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-30-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9916,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/27\/3-reasons-to-be-suspicious-of-the-inequality-debate\/","url_meta":{"origin":13721,"position":5},"title":"3 Reasons to be suspicious of the inequality debate","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 27, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"My concerns with the inequality debate are twofold: The poor are seldom rescued from poverty by redistribution. Raising taxes on the rich to bolster welfare payments increases dependence of the latter on government. While this may be a sound political strategy to garner votes, dependence on handouts robs people of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Taxes &amp; Inequality&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Taxes &amp; Inequality","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/taxes-inequality\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Marginal welfare loss from a small increase in selected Australian taxes","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/henry-tax-welfare-losses.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/henry-tax-welfare-losses.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/henry-tax-welfare-losses.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13721"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13721\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}