{"id":13715,"date":"2014-01-03T03:31:55","date_gmt":"2014-01-03T03:31:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=602"},"modified":"2014-01-03T03:31:55","modified_gmt":"2014-01-03T03:31:55","slug":"household-debt-indicates-confidence-improving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/03\/household-debt-indicates-confidence-improving\/","title":{"rendered":"Household debt indicates confidence improving"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good news for the US economy is that household credit has started to grow, recovering above zero after a protracted contraction. Not only does this indicate a recovery in consumer confidence, but it will fuel additional expenditure and stimulate income growth.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"US Household Credit Growth\" alt=\"US Household Credit Growth\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/hhcredit-growth.png?resize=525%2C313&#038;ssl=1\" height=\"313\" width=\"525\"><\/p>\n<p>The ratio of household debt to personal disposable income continues to contract, indicating that debt is growing at a slower rate than disposable income. This is likely to continue for some time as households recover from the credit binge leading up to the GFC, but is a healthy sign provided credit growth remains positive.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Household Debt over Disposable Personal Income\" alt=\"Household Debt over Disposable Personal Income\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/hhdebt-dpi.png?resize=525%2C318&#038;ssl=1\" height=\"318\" width=\"525\"><\/p>\n<p>Declining corporate bond spreads and historically low readings on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) suggest a healthy bull market ahead.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"CBOE Volatility Index\" alt=\"CBOE Volatility Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/2013-12-31-vix.png?resize=525%2C355&#038;ssl=1\" height=\"355\" width=\"525\"><\/p>\n<h4>Australia<\/h4>\n<p>Australian household debt remains elevated at 150% of disposable income, almost 50% higher than US levels.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Australian Household Debt to Disposable Personal Income\" alt=\"Australian Household Debt to Disposable Personal Income\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/2013dec-hhfin.gif?resize=525%2C472&#038;ssl=1\" height=\"472\" width=\"525\"><\/p>\n<p>While household debt levels will need to be addressed in the long-term, declining corporate bond spreads indicate there is no immediate cause for alarm.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Australian Bond Spreads\" alt=\"Australian Bond Spreads\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/2013dec-bondsau.gif?resize=525%2C470&#038;ssl=1\" height=\"470\" width=\"525\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"qtn\">All who are able, may gain virtue by study and care, for it is better to be happy by the action of nature than by chance. To entrust to chance what is most important would be defective reasoning.<br \/>\n~ Aristotle<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good news for the US economy is that household credit has started to grow, recovering above zero after a protracted contraction. Not only does this indicate a recovery in consumer confidence, but it will fuel additional expenditure and stimulate income growth. The ratio of household debt to personal disposable income continues to contract, indicating that &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/03\/household-debt-indicates-confidence-improving\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Household debt indicates confidence improving&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[615,824,1726],"class_list":["post-13715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-corporate-bond-spreads","tag-household-debt"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Household debt indicates confidence improving - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Household debt indicates confidence improving - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Good news for the US economy is that household credit has started to grow, recovering above zero after a protracted contraction. Not only does this indicate a recovery in consumer confidence, but it will fuel additional expenditure and stimulate income growth. 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Disposable income growth has declined to almost zero and consumption is likely to follow. Else Savings will be depleted. Residential building approvals are slowing, most noticeably in apartments, reflecting an oversupply. Housing loan approvals for owner-occupiers are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6977,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/15\/dousing-the-flames-with-gasoline\/","url_meta":{"origin":13715,"position":1},"title":"Dousing the flames with gasoline","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 15, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"We are in the fifth year of recovery from the worst collapse of global financial markets in more than 50 years fueled by massive debt expansion, with non-financial debt rising as a percentage of GDP from 50% in the 1980s to almost 100% in 2008. Household debt subsequently fell to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5855,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/28\/australia-household-debt-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":13715,"position":2},"title":"Australia: Household debt crisis","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 28, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"A few days ago I mentioned that Australia is in a housing bubble. The easiest way to gauge this is to compare Australian household debt\/disposable income (DPI) to the US peak before the global financial crisis. After all, household debt is the fuel for a housing bubble. Australia's current ratio\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16340,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/09\/12-charts-on-the-australian-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":13715,"position":3},"title":"12 Charts on the Australian economy","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 9, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian GDP grew at a robust 3.1% for the year ended 31 March 2018 but a look at the broader economy shows little to cheer about. Wages growth is slowing, with the Wage Price Index falling sharply. Falling growth in disposable income is holding back consumption (e.g. retail spending) and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8581,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/10\/09\/household-debt-to-income-ratio\/","url_meta":{"origin":13715,"position":4},"title":"Household Debt to Income ratio","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 9, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Barry Ritholz highlights the alarming debt to income ratio for Canada compared to the USA: How does Australia compare? Australian household debt to income is similar to Canada's. There has been discussion recently about whether Australia is in a housing bubble. As Anna Schwartz (joint author of A Monetary History\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15049,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/25\/more-evidence-of-a-bull-market-except-in-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":13715,"position":5},"title":"More evidence of a bull market, except in Australia","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 25, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"One of my favorite indicators of financial market stress is Corporate bond spreads. The premium charged on the lowest level of investment-grade corporate bonds, over the equivalent 10-year Treasury yield, is a great measure of the level of financial market stress. Levels below 2 percent \u2014 not seen since 2004\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13715"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13715\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}