{"id":13713,"date":"2013-11-06T23:30:17","date_gmt":"2013-11-06T23:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=572"},"modified":"2013-11-06T23:30:17","modified_gmt":"2013-11-06T23:30:17","slug":"is-the-market-in-a-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/11\/06\/is-the-market-in-a-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the market in a bubble?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As global growth recovers we expect equity markets to be buoyed by improvements in both earnings and dividends, with strong momentum over the quarter. There is much discussion in the media as to whether various markets are in a “bubble”. Little attention is devoted to the fact that bubbles can last for several years, and sometimes even decades. The main driver of both stock market bubbles and real estate bubbles is debt. Anna Schwartz, co-author with Milton Friedman of A Monetary History of the United States<\/i> (1963) described the relationship to the Wall Street Journal<\/a>:<\/p>\n

If you investigate individually the manias that the market has so dubbed over the years, in every case, it was expansive monetary policy that generated the boom in an asset. The particular asset varied from one boom to another. But the basic underlying propagator was too-easy monetary policy and too-low interest rates …..\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Currently, there is evidence of expansive monetary policy from the Fed, but the overall impact on the financial markets is muted. Most of the QE bond purchases are being parked by banks in interest-bearing, excess reserve deposits at the Fed. The chart below compares Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) to the increase in excess reserve deposits at the Fed.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

A classic placebo effect, the Fed is well aware that the major benefit of their quantitative easing program is psychological: there is little monetary impact on the markets.<\/p>\n

Corporate debt (green line below) is expanding rapidly as corporations take advantage of the opportunity to issue new debt at low interest rates, but household debt (red) is still shrinking.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

There are pockets of concern, like the rapid recovery in NYSE margin debt, but risk of a Dotcom-style stock market bubble or a 2002\/2007 housing bubble is low while household debt contracts.<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h4>\n

Australian personal debt (included with household debt in the US chart) and corporate debt growth are both close to zero. Household debt, while also low, appears to have bottomed. Resurgence above 10% would be cause for concern.<\/p>\n

\"RBA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As global growth recovers we expect equity markets to be buoyed by improvements in both earnings and dividends, with strong momentum over the quarter. There is much discussion in the media as to whether various markets are in a “bubble”. Little attention is devoted to the fact that bubbles can last for several years, and … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Is the market in a bubble?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[829,1313,1726,2827,2836],"class_list":["post-13713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-corporate-debt","tag-excess-reserves","tag-household-debt","tag-qe","tag-quatitative-easing"],"yoast_head":"\nIs the market in a bubble? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the market in a bubble? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As global growth recovers we expect equity markets to be buoyed by improvements in both earnings and dividends, with strong momentum over the quarter. 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But there is really only one kind of bubble \u2014 that is a debt bubble. Without low interest rates fueling rapid debt growth, any form of bubble would wither\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14099,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/12\/economic-research-bubbles-credit-and-their-consequences\/","url_meta":{"origin":13713,"position":1},"title":"Credit bubbles and their consequences","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 12, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting paper from the San Francisco Fed by \u00d2scar Jord\u00e0, VP Economic Research at the San Francisco Fed, Moritz Schularick, professor of economics at the University of Bonn, and Alan M. Taylor, professor of economics and finance at the University of California, Davis. They discuss the difficulty in identifying asset\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8780,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/11\/22\/sp-500-momentum-and-economic-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":13713,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500 Momentum and Economic Outlook","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 22, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"This an example of the monthly updates from the new Research & Investment joint venture between Incredible Charts and Porter Capital. S&P 500 Momentum \u2013 October 2013 Latest Performance S&P 500 Momentum is based on Porter Capital's successful ASX200 Prime Momentum strategy which returned +38.43% for the 12 months ended\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Momentum Trades"","block_context":{"text":"Momentum Trades","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/momentum-investing-2\/momentum-trades\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"GILD","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/2013-11-09-nflx-us.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/2013-11-09-nflx-us.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/2013-11-09-nflx-us.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7527,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/22\/fed-watch-monetary-policy-and-financial-stability\/","url_meta":{"origin":13713,"position":3},"title":"Fed Watch: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 22, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Tim Duty quotes Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota, speaking at the 22nd Annual Hyman P. Minsky conference: ....unusually low real interest rates should be expected to be linked with inflated asset prices, high asset return volatility and heightened merger activity. All of these financial market outcomes are often interpreted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14117,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/13\/credit-bubbles-and-gdp-targeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":13713,"position":4},"title":"Credit bubbles and GDP targeting","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 13, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"In 2010 Scott Sumner first proposed that the Fed use GDP targeting rather than targeting inflation, which is prone to measurement error. Since then support for this approach has grown, with Lars Christensen, an economist with the Danish central bank, coining the term Market Monetarism. Sumner holds that inflation is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12117,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/28\/china-deja-vu-all-over-again\/","url_meta":{"origin":13713,"position":5},"title":"China: Deja vu all over again","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 28, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The Shanghai Composite today found support at 3500 today after plunging more than 8% on Monday. 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