{"id":13565,"date":"2016-07-12T20:08:17","date_gmt":"2016-07-13T00:08:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13565"},"modified":"2016-07-12T20:08:17","modified_gmt":"2016-07-13T00:08:17","slug":"the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist\/","title":{"rendered":"The Italian bank crisis \u2013 the one graph version | The Market Monetarist"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I love Lars Christensen&#8217;s work. Simple but elegant. This is a bit wonkish for an investment blog but he makes a very important point which applies to far more than just Italy.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Today I was interviewed by a Danish journalist about the Italian banking crisis&#8230;.. He asked me a very good question that I think is highly relevant for understanding not only the Italian banking crisis, but the Great Recession in general.<\/p>\n<p>The question was: \u201cLars, why is there an Italian banking crisis \u2013 after all they did NOT have a property markets bubble?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That \u2013 my regular readers will realise \u2013 made me very happy because I could answer that the crisis had little to do with what happened before 2008 and rather was about monetary policy failure and in the case of the euro zone also why it is not an optimal currency area.<\/p>\n<p>Said, in another way I repeated my view that the Italian banking crisis essentially is a consequence of too weak nominal GDP growth in Italy. As a consequence of Italy\u2019s structural problems the country should have a significantly weaker \u201clira\u201d, but given the fact that Italy is in the euro area the country instead gets far too tight monetary conditions and consequently since 2008 nominal GDP has fallen massively below the pre-crisis trend.<\/p>\n<p>That is the cause of the sharp rise in non-performing loans and bad debt since 2008. The graph below clearly illustrates that.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/marketmonetarist.com\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version\/\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/bad-debt-ngdp-italy.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I think it is pretty clear that had nominal GDP growth not fallen this sharply since 2008 then we wouldn\u2019t be talking about an Italian banking crisis today. There was no Italian \u201cbubble\u201d prior to 2008 and there are no signs that Italian banks have been particularly irresponsible, but even the most conservative banks will get into trouble when nominal GDP drops 25% below the pre-crisis trend.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Market monetarists advocate that central banks should maintain smooth monetary growth consistent with a nominal GDP target. Current central bank response is lagged because they have to wait for inflation and employment numbers &#8212; which is about as effective as driving your car down the highway while looking in the rear view mirror to see where you are headed. Even then, they focus on the wrong numbers, inflation and employment, when the root cause is monetary growth and nominal GDP.<\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/marketmonetarist.com\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version\/\">The Italian bank crisis \u2013 the one graph version | The Market Monetarist<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I love Lars Christensen&#8217;s work. Simple but elegant. This is a bit wonkish for an investment blog but he makes a very important point which applies to far more than just Italy. Today I was interviewed by a Danish journalist about the Italian banking crisis&#8230;.. He asked me a very good question that I think &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Italian bank crisis \u2013 the one graph version | The Market Monetarist&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Italian bank crisis \u2013 the one graph version | The Market Monetarist - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Italian bank crisis \u2013 the one graph version | The Market Monetarist - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I love Lars Christensen&#8217;s work. Simple but elegant. This is a bit wonkish for an investment blog but he makes a very important point which applies to far more than just Italy. Today I was interviewed by a Danish journalist about the Italian banking crisis&#8230;.. He asked me a very good question that I think &hellip; Continue reading &quot;The Italian bank crisis \u2013 the one graph version | The Market Monetarist&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-07-13T00:08:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/bad-debt-ngdp-italy.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"The Italian bank crisis \u2013 the one graph version | The Market Monetarist\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-07-13T00:08:17+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist\/\"},\"wordCount\":404,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/bad-debt-ngdp-italy.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist\/\",\"name\":\"The Italian bank crisis \u2013 the one graph version | The Market Monetarist - 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Said in another way the main cause\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4726,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/29\/debt-crisis-germany-caves-in-over-bond-buying-bank-aid-after-italy-and-spain-threaten-to-block-everything-telegraph\/","url_meta":{"origin":13565,"position":1},"title":"Debt crisis: Germany caves in over bond buying, bank aid after Italy and Spain threaten to block &#039;everything&#039; &#8211; Telegraph","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 29, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Bruno Waterfield: On Thursday night, Italy and Spain plunged an EU summit into disarray by threatening to block \u201ceverything\u201d unless Germany and other eurozone countries backed their demands for help......Under the deal, Spanish banks will be recapitalised directly by allowing a \u20ac100 billion EU bailout to [be] transferred off Spain\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1864,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/10\/italy-fears-rattle-worlds-investors-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":13565,"position":2},"title":"Italy Fears Rattle World&#8217;s Investors &#8211; WSJ.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 10, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Big investors felt comfortable owning big stakes of Italian debt in part because they knew they could sell without much difficulty. That has changed. \"It used to be one of the most liquid markets out there, but it isn't anymore,\" said Peter Schaffrik, head of European rates strategy at RBC\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6781,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/24\/bernard-connolly-why-the-euro-crisis-isnt-over-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":13565,"position":3},"title":"Bernard Connolly: Why the Euro Crisis Isn&#039;t Over &#124; WSJ.com","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 24, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"From Brian Carney's weekend interview with Bernard Connolly: ...But even if the Greeks were undisciplined, he says, \"both the sovereign-debt crisis and the banking crisis are symptoms, not causes. And the underlying problem has been that there was a massive bubble generated in the world as a whole by monetary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1868,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/11\/banks-to-dump-more-italian-debt-ticker-ifre\/","url_meta":{"origin":13565,"position":4},"title":"Banks to dump more Italian debt | Ticker | IFRe","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 11, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"With the ECB providing a bid for Italian bonds that might not otherwise exist, board members at some of Europe\u2019s largest bank say now is the time to accelerate disposals. Many are also reversing long-standing policies of buying into new Italian bond issues, denying Rome an important base of support.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4940,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/25\/benoit-coeure-short-term-crisis-management-and-long-term-vision-how-europe-responds-to-the-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":13565,"position":5},"title":"Beno\u00eet C\u0153ur\u00e9: Short-term crisis management and long-term vision &#8211; how Europe responds to the crisis","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 25, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting to get a view from within the ECB as to the state of the euro-zone crisis. Beno\u00eet Coeur\u00e9, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank: On 29 June, the Euro Summit took a further series of steps to strengthen crisis management. They agreed that loans to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13565","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13565"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13565\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13565"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13565"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13565"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}