{"id":13475,"date":"2016-06-22T21:06:20","date_gmt":"2016-06-23T01:06:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13475"},"modified":"2016-06-22T21:06:20","modified_gmt":"2016-06-23T01:06:20","slug":"rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/","title":{"rendered":"Rebalancing, wealth transfers, and the growth of Chinese debt | Michael Pettis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Michael Pettis summarizes China&#8217;s debt dilemna:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>This, I think, is really the key point. There is no way Beijing can address the debt without a sharp drop in GDP growth, but as unwilling as Beijing may be to see much lower growth, it doesn\u2019t have any other option. It must choose either much lower but manageable growth today or a chaotic decline in growth tomorrow.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;..History suggests that developing countries that have experienced growth \u201cmiracles\u201d tend to develop risky financial systems and unstable national balance sheets. The longer the miracle, the greater the tendency. That\u2019s because in periods of rapid growth, riskier institutions do well. Soon balance sheets across the economy incorporate similar types of risk.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;.Over time, this means the entire financial system is built around the same set of optimistic expectations. But when growth slows, balance sheets that did well during expansionary phases will now systematically fall short of expectations, and their disappointing performance will further reinforce the economic deceleration. This is when it suddenly becomes costlier to refinance the gap, and the practice of mismatching assets and liabilities causes debt, not profits, to rise.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Xi Jinping doesn&#8217;t have the short-term focus of most developed economies, where leaders are primarily concerned with the next election, but even he has failed to grasp the nettle. Cutting GDP growth may fuel greater political instability but this is a price China has to pay.<\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.mpettis.com\/2016\/06\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt\/\">Rebalancing, wealth transfers, and the growth of Chinese debt | Michael Pettis&#8217; CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Michael Pettis summarizes China&#8217;s debt dilemna: This, I think, is really the key point. There is no way Beijing can address the debt without a sharp drop in GDP growth, but as unwilling as Beijing may be to see much lower growth, it doesn\u2019t have any other option. It must choose either much lower but &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Rebalancing, wealth transfers, and the growth of Chinese debt | Michael Pettis&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-debt-levels"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rebalancing, wealth transfers, and the growth of Chinese debt | Michael Pettis - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rebalancing, wealth transfers, and the growth of Chinese debt | Michael Pettis - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Michael Pettis summarizes China&#8217;s debt dilemna: This, I think, is really the key point. There is no way Beijing can address the debt without a sharp drop in GDP growth, but as unwilling as Beijing may be to see much lower growth, it doesn\u2019t have any other option. It must choose either much lower but &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Rebalancing, wealth transfers, and the growth of Chinese debt | Michael Pettis&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-06-23T01:06:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Rebalancing, wealth transfers, and the growth of Chinese debt | Michael Pettis\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-06-23T01:06:20+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/\"},\"wordCount\":261,\"commentCount\":4,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"China &amp; HK\",\"Debt Levels\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/\",\"name\":\"Rebalancing, wealth transfers, and the growth of Chinese debt | Michael Pettis - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2016-06-23T01:06:20+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/22\/rebalancing-wealth-transfers-and-the-growth-of-chinese-debt-michael-pettis\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Rebalancing, wealth transfers, and the growth of Chinese debt | Michael Pettis\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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The longer the miracle, the greater the tendency. That\u2019s because in periods of rapid growth, riskier institutions do well. Soon\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14506,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/18\/china-choosing-more-debt-more-unemployment-or-transfers-michael-pettis\/","url_meta":{"origin":13475,"position":1},"title":"China: Choosing More Debt, More Unemployment, Or Transfers | Michael Pettis","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 18, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Michael Pettis: I have often written in this blog and elsewhere about the three policy choices Beijing faces as it tries to manage through the adjustment process. My argument is that subject to two very plausible assumptions, every economic policy Beijing implements ultimately can be abstracted to one choice\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27410,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/16\/michael-pettis-china-faces-an-impossible-challenge\/","url_meta":{"origin":13475,"position":2},"title":"Michael Pettis: China faces an impossible challenge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 16, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"When it comes to the challenges facing the Chinese economy, Michael Pettis' insights are in a class of their own: \"The Chinese growth model has relied very heavily on investment which in turn has relied very heavily on debt. As China began to over-invest in nonproductive projects, as it has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7427,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/09\/michael-pettis-china-not-headed-for-disaster-but-slower-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":13475,"position":3},"title":"Michael Pettis: China not headed for disaster but slower growth","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 9, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"http:\/\/youtu.be\/cOfBlYnMAcM Extract from an interview with Michael Pettis [professor of finance at Peking University in Beijing] on the Daily Ticker talking about China's economy, which he claims is not headed for disaster, but will necessarily slow as the economy rebalances. Full HD interview can be watched here: http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/blogs\/daily-ticker\/plenty-things-worry-china-bird-flu-not-one-174030450.html","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/cOfBlYnMAcM\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":36826,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/30\/chinas-real-estate-dilemma\/","url_meta":{"origin":13475,"position":4},"title":"China&#8217;s real estate dilemma","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 30, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"China's three decades of unprecedented growth has led to an accumulation of imbalances in the real estate sector that now threaten financial stability. As Hyman Minsky explained, extended periods of stability lead to instability. Participants take on increasing amounts of risk, assuming that stability will continue, making the economy increasingly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":40639,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/01\/30\/michael-pettis-the-china-shock-is-coming\/","url_meta":{"origin":13475,"position":5},"title":"Michael Pettis: The China Shock is Coming","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 30, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/youtu.be\/QcdPMOMS7N8 Michael Pettis is a professor of finance at Peking University in Beijing and one of the foremost Western experts on China, having lived there for almost two decades. He explains the Chinese growth model, why it no longer works, and the hard choices ahead. China's Growth Model China's growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Non-Financial Credit\/GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13475","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13475"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13475\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13475"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13475"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13475"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}