{"id":13462,"date":"2016-06-16T03:38:02","date_gmt":"2016-06-16T07:38:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13462"},"modified":"2016-06-16T03:38:02","modified_gmt":"2016-06-16T07:38:02","slug":"hope-isnt-a-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/16\/hope-isnt-a-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Hope isn’t a strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cautious optimism has evaporated after poor recent polls<\/a> favoring a BREXIT. I hope that sanity prevails but, as the saying goes: “Hope isn’t a strategy”.<\/p>\n

Better to have a Plan A and a Plan B to cope with the two alternatives. But if enough investors decide their money is safer in the bank, then expectations of a fall are likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 does not appear unduly alarmed but a sharp fall on 13-week Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 2000 would warn of another test of primary support (1820 to 1870).<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average shows a similar picture. Breach of medium-term support at 17400 to 17500 would warn of another test of primary support at 15500 to 16000.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

A CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 20, indicating increased market risk. Long-term measures remain unaffected.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

Germany’s DAX retreated below medium-term support, warning of another test of primary support. 13-Week Money Flow below zero suggests a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

The Footsie broke support at 6000 warning of a test of 5500. Reversal of Money Flow below zero would suggest a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 6400 + ( 6400 – 6000 ) = 6800<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

The Shanghai Composite Index continues to range between 2700 and 3100.<\/p>\n

\"Shanghai<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke support at 16000 and its lower trend channel, warning of another decline.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 15000 – ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 12000<\/p>\n

India’s Sensex remains bullish, with a short retracement below 27000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Money Flow would end if the descending trendline is penetrated.<\/p>\n

\"SENSEX\"<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

The ASX 200 broke medium-term support at 5200, warning of another test of primary support at 4750. Expect support at the former level of 4900 to 5000 but it is questionable whether this will hold. Combination of a seasonal sell-off<\/a> and BREXIT fears are going to test buyers’ commitment.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The Banks Index fell sharply and breach of support at 7200 would offer a target of 6400*.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 7200 – ( 8000 – 7200 ) = 6400<\/p>\n

Health Care is experiencing a strong sell-off, led by CSL. This is a good long-term stock but exposure to the UK\/Europe has spooked the market.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cautious optimism has evaporated after poor recent polls favoring a BREXIT. I hope that sanity prevails but, as the saying goes: “Hope isn’t a strategy”. Better to have a Plan A and a Plan B to cope with the two alternatives. But if enough investors decide their money is safer in the bank, then expectations … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Hope isn’t a strategy”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41,12,17,57,29,33,34],"tags":[497],"class_list":["post-13462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","category-india-singapore-countries-regions","category-japan-korea","category-stock-markets","category-the-big-picture","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-brexit"],"yoast_head":"\nHope isn't a strategy - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hope isn't a strategy - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Cautious optimism has evaporated after poor recent polls favoring a BREXIT. 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Breach would signal a test of the 2016 low at 1.10. The FTSE 100 retraced to test support at 7400, with bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term selling\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Forex"","block_context":{"text":"Forex","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17676,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/12\/15\/risk-averse-rather-than-fearful\/","url_meta":{"origin":13462,"position":1},"title":"Risk averse rather than fearful","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 15, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is again testing the band of primary support between 2600 and 2550. Follow-through below this level would warn of a bear market. Volatility (21-day) is in the amber zone between 1% and 2%. A real test of market resilience will be the next sizable rally or advance.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17202,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/20\/east-to-west-europe-faces-a-stern-test\/","url_meta":{"origin":13462,"position":2},"title":"East to West: Europe faces a stern test","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 20, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The Shanghai Composite Index broke primary support at 2650 but rising troughs on the Trend Index indicate buying pressure. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level at 2700. India's Nifty is testing primary support at 10,000. Descending peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Breach of support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10577,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/08\/europe-tests-primary-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":13462,"position":3},"title":"Europe tests primary support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 8, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary: Europe threatens reversal to a down-trend. S&P 500 finds support. VIX continues to indicate a bull market. China's Shanghai Composite encounters selling pressure. ASX 200 experiences a secondary correction. Dow Jones Europe Index is testing the primary trendline and support at 315. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Europe Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13733,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/09\/europe-tests-primary-support-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":13462,"position":4},"title":"Europe tests primary support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 9, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary: Europe threatens reversal to a down-trend. S&P 500 finds support. VIX continues to indicate a bull market. China's Shanghai Composite encounters selling pressure. ASX 200 experiences a secondary correction. Dow Jones Europe Index is testing the primary trendline and support at 315. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Europe Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1254,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/05\/no-fireworks-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":13462,"position":5},"title":"No fireworks yet","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 5, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is testing resistance at the previous high of 2130. Down-turn on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of short-term selling pressure; a fall below zero would indicate strong resistance. Reversal below 2050 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of primary support at 1870. * Target calculation: 2000\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-05-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13462\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}