{"id":13336,"date":"2016-05-17T22:00:48","date_gmt":"2016-05-18T02:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13336"},"modified":"2016-05-17T22:00:48","modified_gmt":"2016-05-18T02:00:48","slug":"rising-inflation-dollar-weakens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/17\/rising-inflation-dollar-weakens\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising inflation, Dollar weakens"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The consumer price index (CPI) ticked up 1.14% (year-on-year) for April 2016, on the back of higher oil prices. Core CPI (excluding energy and food) eased slightly to 2.15%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"314\" alt=\"CPI and Core CPI\" title=\"CPI and Core CPI\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-18-cpi.png?resize=525%2C314&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Inflation is muted, but a sharp rise in hourly manufacturing (production and nonsupervisory employees) earnings growth (2.98% for 12 months to April 2016) points to further increases.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"313\" alt=\"Manufacturing Hourly Earnings Growth\" title=\"Manufacturing Hourly Earnings Growth\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-18-earnings.png?resize=525%2C313&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Despite this, long-term interest rates remain weak, with 10-year Treasury yields testing support at 1.65 percent. Breach would signal another test of the record low at 1.50% in 2012. The dovish Fed is a contributing factor, but so could safe-haven demand from investors wary of stocks&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"10-year Treasury Yields\" title=\"10-year Treasury Yields\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-18-tnx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>The Dollar<\/h2>\n<p>The US Dollar Index rallied off long-term support at 93 but this looks more a pause in the primary down-trend (signaled by decline of 13-week Momentum below zero) than a reversal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"US Dollar Index\" alt=\"US Dollar Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-18-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" height=\"363\" width=\"525\"><\/p>\n<p>Explanation for the Dollar rally is evident on the chart of China&#8217;s foreign reserves: a pause in the sharp decline of the last 2 years. China has embarked on another massive stimulus program in an attempt to shock their economy out of its present slump.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"China: Foreign Reserves\" alt=\"China: Foreign Reserves\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-12-china.png?resize=525%2C314&#038;ssl=1\" height=\"314\" width=\"525\"><\/p>\n<p>But this <em>hair of the dog<\/em> remedy is unlikely to solve their problems, merely postpone the inevitable reckoning. The Yuan is once again weakening against the Dollar. Decline in China&#8217;s reserves &mdash; and the US Dollar as a consequence &mdash; is likely to continue.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"USD: Chinese Yuan\" alt=\"USD: Chinese Yuan\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-18-cny.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" height=\"363\" width=\"525\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The consumer price index (CPI) ticked up 1.14% (year-on-year) for April 2016, on the back of higher oil prices. Core CPI (excluding energy and food) eased slightly to 2.15%. Inflation is muted, but a sharp rise in hourly manufacturing (production and nonsupervisory employees) earnings growth (2.98% for 12 months to April 2016) points to further &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/17\/rising-inflation-dollar-weakens\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Rising inflation, Dollar weakens&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,41,13,34],"tags":[663,678,818,854,1073,1441,1719,1828],"class_list":["post-13336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-china","tag-chinese-yuan","tag-core-cpi","tag-cpi","tag-dollar-index","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-hourly-manufacturing-earnings","tag-inflation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rising inflation, Dollar weakens - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rising inflation, Dollar weakens - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The consumer price index (CPI) ticked up 1.14% (year-on-year) for April 2016, on the back of higher oil prices. 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But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years. 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But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5-Year Breakeven Rate, Core CPI and Growth in Hourly Manufacturing Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11617,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/03\/11\/cpi-unwinds-as-the-fed-runs-out-of-patience\/","url_meta":{"origin":13336,"position":2},"title":"CPI unwinds as the Fed runs out of &#8220;patience&#8221;","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 11, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"From Seeking Alpha: The euro fell to a fresh 12-year low on Wednesday, extending a broad decline just days after the ECB launched its \u20ac1T bond-buying program, while the dollar index soared to its highest in more than 11 years at 98.95, buoyed by expectations that the Fed could soon\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/cpi-us.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/cpi-us.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/cpi-us.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":25799,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/15\/all-you-need-to-know-about-inflation-in-one-chart\/","url_meta":{"origin":13336,"position":3},"title":"All you need to know about inflation in one chart","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 15, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Actually, there are five charts but the first four are simply to explain how we get to the last one. Wage Rates & Crude Oil The first shows a history of US inflation for the past 60 years: wage rates, crude oil and the consumer price index (CPI). What this\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25768,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/13\/beware-the-cpi-spike\/","url_meta":{"origin":13336,"position":4},"title":"Beware the CPI &#8220;spike&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 13, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 4.16% (YoY) for April 2021, while core CPI (excluding food & energy) climbed to 2.96%. But the strong result is mostly due to the base effect from a sharp fall in April last year. If we instead measure CPI relative to February 2020,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":45404,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/15\/dollar-crashes-while-gold-and-stocks-rally-on-weak-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":13336,"position":5},"title":"Dollar crashes while Gold and stocks rally on weak CPI","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 15, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A weak CPI report and the prospect of lower interest rates caused a rally in bonds, stocks and precious metals. 10-Year Treasury yields broke support at 4.50%, offering a target of 4.0%. We expect a surge of investors into longer-term Treasuries, driving yields lower, as the peak at 5.0% now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-15-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-15-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-15-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13336"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13336\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}