{"id":13331,"date":"2016-05-16T20:44:29","date_gmt":"2016-05-17T00:44:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13331"},"modified":"2016-05-16T20:44:29","modified_gmt":"2016-05-17T00:44:29","slug":"goldman-cuts-2017-oil-price-forecast-due-to-slower-market-rebalancing-zero-hedge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/16\/goldman-cuts-2017-oil-price-forecast-due-to-slower-market-rebalancing-zero-hedge\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Cuts 2017 Oil Price Forecast Due To Slower Market Rebalancing | Zero Hedge"},"content":{"rendered":"

Goldman Sachs has cut its long-term crude oil forecasts:<\/p>\n

The inflection phase of the oil market continues to deliver its share of surprises, with low prices driving disruptions in Nigeria, higher output in Iran and better demand. With each of these shifts significant in magnitude, the oil market has gone from nearing storage saturation to being in deficit much earlier than we expected and we are pulling forward our price forecast, with 2Q\/2H16 WTI now $45\/bbl and $50\/bbl. However, we expect that the return of some of these outages as well as higher Iran and Iraq production will more than offset lingering issues in Nigeria and our higher demand forecast. As a result, we now forecast a more gradual decline in inventories in 2H than previously and a return into surplus in 1Q17, with low-cost production continuing to grow in the New Oil Order. This leads us to lower our 2017 forecast with prices in 1Q17 at $45\/bbl and only reaching $60\/bbl by 4Q2017.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

But these forecasts are premised on a Chinese recovery:<\/p>\n

Stronger vehicle sales, activity and a bigger harvest are leading us to raise our Indian and Russia demand forecasts for the year. And while we are reducing our US and EU forecasts on the combination of weaker activity and higher prices than previously assumed, we are raising our China demand forecasts to reflect the expected support from the recent transient stimulus. Net, our 2016 oil demand growth forecast is now 1.4 mb\/d, up from 1.2 mb\/d previously. Our bias for strong demand growth since October 2014 leaves us seeing risks to this forecast as skewed to the upside although lesser fuel and crude burn for power generation in Brazil, Japan and likely Saudi are large headwinds this year.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

While production growth continues to surprise:<\/p>\n

…..This expectation for a return into surplus in 1Q17 is not dependent on a sharp price recovery beyond the $45-$55\/bbl trading range that we now expect in 2016. First, it reflects our view that low-cost producers will continue to drive production growth in the New Oil Order \u2013 with growth driven by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, the UAE and Russia. Second, non-OPEC producers had mostly budgeted such price levels and there remains a pipeline of already sanctioned non-OPEC projects. In fact, we see risks to our production forecasts as skewed to the upside as we remain conservative on Saudi\u2019s ineluctable ramp up and Iran\u2019s recovery.<\/p>\n

We expect continued growth in low-cost producer output
\nSaudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Iran (crude) and Russia (oil) production (kb\/d)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Tyler Durden has a more bearish view: <\/p>\n

While there is much more in the full note, the bottom line is simple: near-term disruptions have led to a premature bounce in the price of oil, however as millions more in oil barrels come online (and as Chinese demand fades contrary to what Goldman believes), the next leg in oil will not be higher, but flat or lower, in what increasingly is shaping up to be a rerun of the summer of 2015<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Source: Goldman Cuts 2017 Oil Price Forecast Due To Slower Market Rebalancing | Zero Hedge<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Goldman Sachs has cut its long-term crude oil forecasts: The inflection phase of the oil market continues to deliver its share of surprises, with low prices driving disruptions in Nigeria, higher output in Iran and better demand. With each of these shifts significant in magnitude, the oil market has gone from nearing storage saturation to … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Goldman Cuts 2017 Oil Price Forecast Due To Slower Market Rebalancing | Zero Hedge”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,44,12,26,33,34],"tags":[898,1588,1897,2477,2571,3006,3036],"class_list":["post-13331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-india-singapore-countries-regions","category-russia-former-ussr","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-crude-oil-2","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-iran","tag-nigeria","tag-opec","tag-russia","tag-saudi-arabia"],"yoast_head":"\nGoldman Cuts 2017 Oil Price Forecast Due To Slower Market Rebalancing | Zero Hedge - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Goldman Cuts 2017 Oil Price Forecast Due To Slower Market Rebalancing | Zero Hedge - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Goldman Sachs has cut its long-term crude oil forecasts: The inflection phase of the oil market continues to deliver its share of surprises, with low prices driving disruptions in Nigeria, higher output in Iran and better demand. 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The MOVE index retreated to 127 from a recent high at 142, indicating lower bond market volatility. The Dollar Index retreated to 105.67 in response to declining Treasury yields. Gold\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-11-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-11-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-11-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62742,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/16\/crude-sinks-but-copper-lithium-and-uranium-boom\/","url_meta":{"origin":13331,"position":2},"title":"Crude sinks but copper, lithium, and uranium boom","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 16, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The International Energy Agency forecasts a heavy crude oil oversupply in 2026, sinking spot prices. However, copper, lithium, and uranium miners are all trending higher, anticipating rising transport electrification and a massive build-out of AI datacenters. A declining Cass Freight Index and falling heavy truck sales warn of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Copper"","block_context":{"text":"Copper","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/copper\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"IEA Forecast of Global Crude Oil Supply & Demand","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-15-iea-supply.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-15-iea-supply.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-15-iea-supply.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-15-iea-supply.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13755,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/12\/01\/crude-oil-a-zero-sum-game-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":13331,"position":3},"title":"Crude oil: A zero-sum game?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 1, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe current fall in price does nothing to offset the squeeze on the total economy from rising costs,\u201d Grantham writes. \u201cIt merely transfers massive amounts of income from one subgroup (oil producers) to another (oil consumers), in a largely zero-sum game....\u201d[Business Insider] The above quote from Jeremy Grantham made me\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31399,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/08\/art-berman-oil-shock\/","url_meta":{"origin":13331,"position":4},"title":"Art Berman | Oil shock","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 8, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Russia produces about 10.6 million barrels per day (mmb\/d) of crude oil and condensate of which it exports roughly 5 mmb\/d. The only larger producer is the U.S. at 11.6 mmb\/d. Europe is most vulnerable as it buys about 25% (2.5 mmb\/d) of its oil from Russia. From Art Berman:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Oil Shocks","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11386,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/11\/30\/crude-oil-a-zero-sum-game\/","url_meta":{"origin":13331,"position":5},"title":"Crude oil: A zero-sum game?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 30, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe current fall in price does nothing to offset the squeeze on the total economy from rising costs,\u201d Grantham writes. \u201cIt merely transfers massive amounts of income from one subgroup (oil producers) to another (oil consumers), in a largely zero-sum game....\u201d[Business Insider] The above quote from Jeremy Grantham made me\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13331","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13331"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13331\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}