{"id":13261,"date":"2016-05-11T20:39:59","date_gmt":"2016-05-12T00:39:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13261"},"modified":"2016-05-11T20:39:59","modified_gmt":"2016-05-12T00:39:59","slug":"four-key-takeaways-for-investors-from-the-big-four-bank-earnings-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/11\/four-key-takeaways-for-investors-from-the-big-four-bank-earnings-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Four key takeaways for investors from the big four bank earnings season"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/business\/banking-and-finance\/four-key-takeaways-for-investors-from-the-big-four-bank-earnings-season-20160511-goschg.html?promote_channel=edmail&amp;mbnr=MTQyOTU1Nzk\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/1463007421738.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Good article from James Eyers at <em>The Age<\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>1) Bank margins are under pressure<\/p>\n<p>Over the first half, bank net interest margins expanded by two basis points, but &#8220;this was weaker than anticipated as front book competition offset much of the mortgage repricing benefit,&#8221; said UBS analyst Jonathan Mott&#8230;..<\/p>\n<p>2) Bad debts are rising, but off a low base and in isolated areas <\/p>\n<p>It would seem that asset quality has gone past its low trough; most analysts are expecting banks to report higher impairment expenses in the second half after large &#8216;single name exposures&#8217; led to increases in impaired assets and provisions in the first half&#8230;..<\/p>\n<p>3) Dividends are under pressure <\/p>\n<p>Apart from ANZ, which surprised the market on Thursday when it cut its interim dividend 7 per cent&#8230;. payout ratios continued to creep higher. Analysts think NAB is the most likely bank to follow ANZ and to cut its dividend&#8230;..<\/p>\n<p>4) Stock prices will remain volatile <\/p>\n<p>Despite the week of disclosures and presentations for the banks, there are still a lot of mixed messages and issues that remain uncertain for the banks, which will compound volatility as investors shift positions on the sector. <\/p>\n<p>The analysts took different core messages from each bank during last week. Mr Martin says ANZ&#8217;s was the best result for costs, NAB&#8217;s was the best for revenue growth, while Westpac was the best result for provisioning by taking more upfront. While the results showed consumer banking earnings to be strong, institutional banking earnings were very weak. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The sector outlook will remain difficult in the second half,&#8221; says Goldman&#8217;s Mr Lyons.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Australian banks face three major headwinds. Personal credit is shrinking, reflecting consumer caution, while credit to business and housing has been buoyed by low interest rates.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Australia Credit Growth\" alt=\"Australia Credit Growth\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-12-credit.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But this is likely to slow as capital ratios increase.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Australia Bank Capital Ratios\" alt=\"Australia Bank Capital Ratios\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-12-capital.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And pressure on interest margins continues.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Australia Bank Net Interest Margins\" alt=\"Australia Bank Net Interest Margins\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-12-margins.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/business\/banking-and-finance\/four-key-takeaways-for-investors-from-the-big-four-bank-earnings-season-20160511-goschg.html\">Four key takeaways for investors from the big four bank earnings season<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good article from James Eyers at The Age: 1) Bank margins are under pressure Over the first half, bank net interest margins expanded by two basis points, but &#8220;this was weaker than anticipated as front book competition offset much of the mortgage repricing benefit,&#8221; said UBS analyst Jonathan Mott&#8230;.. 2) Bad debts are rising, but &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/11\/four-key-takeaways-for-investors-from-the-big-four-bank-earnings-season\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Four key takeaways for investors from the big four bank earnings season&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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Having respected resistance at 8500, a test of primary support at 8000 is likely. Twiggs Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure. Return on equity is falling. A combination of narrow interest margins.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18820,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/06\/interest-spreads-hold-sway-over-the-global-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":13261,"position":1},"title":"Interest spreads hold sway over the global economy","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"An inverted yield curve is a reliable predictor of recessions but it also warns of falling bank profits. When the spread between long-term Treasury yields and short-term rates is\u00a0 below zero, net interest margins are squeezed. In a normal market, with a steep yield curve, net interest margins are wide\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12874,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/22\/sp-500-still-flaky\/","url_meta":{"origin":13261,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500 still flaky","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 22, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Howard Silverblatt at S&P Indices: \"With almost 90% of the Q4 2015 earnings reported, 67.6% of the issues are beating estimates (the historical rate is two-thirds), but only 36.8% beat As Reported GAAP rule based earnings estimates and less than half, 46.8%, beat sales estimates. Explained \u2018responsibility\u2019 for any\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 EPS","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-22-spx-eps.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-22-spx-eps.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-22-spx-eps.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14233,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/24\/flattening-yield-curve-low-bank-interest-margins\/","url_meta":{"origin":13261,"position":3},"title":"Flattening yield curve &#038; low bank interest margins","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 24, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The Yield Differential, calculated by subtracting 3-month from 10-year Treasury Yields, is trending lower. This warns that the yield curve is flattening but we are still above the danger area below 1.0 percent. A flat yield curve squeezes bank interest margins and often precedes a credit contraction. But there is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18830,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/06\/australia-the-elephant-in-the-room\/","url_meta":{"origin":13261,"position":4},"title":"Australia: The elephant in the room","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"June quarter real GDP growth slowed to an annual 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Major contributors to growth are household consumption, public demand and exports; while the biggest handbrake is investment. A quick look at the RBA chart shows that consumption is slowing but at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":41768,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/28\/hard-or-soft-landing\/","url_meta":{"origin":13261,"position":5},"title":"Hard or Soft Landing?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 28, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Almost every recession in history has been preceded by speculation that the economy is in for a \"soft landing.\" After the early warning signs, nothing much happens. The stock market keeps climbing despite rising interest rates, raising hopes of a \"lucky escape\". The four most expensive words in the English\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-28-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-28-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-28-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13261"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13261\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}