{"id":13212,"date":"2016-04-27T19:19:06","date_gmt":"2016-04-27T23:19:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13212"},"modified":"2016-04-27T19:19:06","modified_gmt":"2016-04-27T23:19:06","slug":"will-the-rba-cut-interest-rates-in-may","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/27\/will-the-rba-cut-interest-rates-in-may\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the RBA cut interest rates in May?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From Justin Smirk at Westpac:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The headline CPI surprised in Q1 falling 0.2% compared to Westpac\u2019s forecast for +0.4%&#8230;.. The annual rate is now just 1.3%yr compared to 1.7%yr in Q4.  <\/p>\n<p>The core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.2% compared to the market\u2019s expectation of 0.5% rise&#8230;. The annual pace of the average of the core inflation measures is now 1.5% from 2.0% in Q4 (Q4 was unrevised) and is the lowest print we have yet seen from this measure.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>From Jens Meyer at <em>The Age<\/em>:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/business\/federal-budget\/three-reasons-for-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-to-cut-official-interest-rates-in-may-20160427-gog4cg.html?promote_channel=edmail&amp;mbnr=MTQyOTU1Nzk\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/1461734487542.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Today&#8217;s weak inflation numbers are a game changer for the Reserve Bank that will trigger a rate cut, says JPMorgan head of fixed income and foreign exchange strategy Sally Auld.<\/p>\n<p>The investment bank now expects the RBA to cut by 0.25 percentage points next week and to follow this up with a further 25 basis points cut in August, taking the cash rate to 1.50 per cent.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/business\/federal-budget\/three-reasons-for-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-to-cut-official-interest-rates-in-may-20160427-gog4cg.html?promote_channel=edmail&amp;mbnr=MTQyOTU1Nzk\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/1461734487542.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Smirk disagrees:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;..But low inflation, on its own, is not a trigger for a rate cut. Sure, it unlocks the interest rate door for the RBA should it decide it needs to walk through that door as the Bank would not have to wait for another CPI update before doing so. However, it does not mean that the RBA will cut rates! A rate cut is dependent on local economic conditions demanding a rate cut. With unemployment on a new downtrend this is not so at the moment and we suggest that the RBA is waiting to see a new weaker trend in domestic activity and employment before it would embark on such a strategy.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/a.email6.westpac.com.au\/?DrCr.54myjtm4f47htxYPr3spQ7ERBAlD&amp;https:\/\/wibiq.westpac.com.au\/Publications.aspx?PublicationId=18082\">Australian 14 CPI 2016 | Westpac<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/business\/federal-budget\/three-reasons-for-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-to-cut-official-interest-rates-in-may-20160427-gog4cg.html\">Three reasons for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut official interest rates in May<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Justin Smirk at Westpac: The headline CPI surprised in Q1 falling 0.2% compared to Westpac\u2019s forecast for +0.4%&#8230;.. The annual rate is now just 1.3%yr compared to 1.7%yr in Q4. The core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.2% compared to the market\u2019s expectation of 0.5% rise&#8230;. The annual pace &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/27\/will-the-rba-cut-interest-rates-in-may\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Will the RBA cut interest rates in May?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31],"tags":[292,609,1828,1858,2860],"class_list":["post-13212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","tag-australian-dollar","tag-cash-rate","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-rba"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will the RBA cut interest rates in May? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will the RBA cut interest rates in May? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Justin Smirk at Westpac: The headline CPI surprised in Q1 falling 0.2% compared to Westpac\u2019s forecast for +0.4%&#8230;.. The annual rate is now just 1.3%yr compared to 1.7%yr in Q4. The core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.2% compared to the market\u2019s expectation of 0.5% rise&#8230;. 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We are now confronted with the reality that annual core inflation for the year to September 2011\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":35919,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/27\/australia-q2-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":13212,"position":1},"title":"Australia Q2 CPI and the cash rate","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The CPI gained 1.8% in the June quarter splitting the difference between the market median of 1.9% and Westpac\u2019s forecast of 1.7%. .....This increase was the second highest since the introduction of the GST and follows on from a 2.1% increase in the March quarter. 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