{"id":13199,"date":"2016-04-25T21:30:14","date_gmt":"2016-04-26T01:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13199"},"modified":"2016-04-25T21:30:14","modified_gmt":"2016-04-26T01:30:14","slug":"chinas-crewhere-all-the-commodity-gains-have-come-from","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/25\/chinas-crewhere-all-the-commodity-gains-have-come-from\/","title":{"rendered":"China’s credit boom: How long will it last?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Where All The Commodity Gains Have Come From<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tyler Durden:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Trading in futures on everything from steel reinforcement bars and hot-rolled coils to cotton and polyvinyl chloride has soared this week, prompting exchanges in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou to boost fees or issue warnings to investors. Eventually, the excesses will need to be curbed and maybe that starts a new phase of risk-off within China.<\/p>\n

As Bloomberg<\/a> reports, While the underlying products may be anything but glamorous, the numbers are eye-popping: contracts on more than 223 million metric tons of rebar changed hands on Thursday, more than China\u2019s full-year production of the material used to strengthen concrete.<\/p>\n

The frenzy echoes the activity that fueled China\u2019s stock market last year before a rout erased $5 trillion, and follows earlier bubbles in property to garlic and even certain types of tea. China\u2019s army of investors is honing in on raw materials amid signs of a pickup in demand and as the nation\u2019s equities fall the most among global markets and corporate bond yields head for the steepest monthly rise in more than a year. Hao Hong, chief China strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co. in Hong Kong, says the improvement in fundamentals and the availability of leverage to bet on commodities is making them irresistible to traders. \u201cThese guys are going nuts,” Hong said. \u201cLeverage exaggerates the move of the way up, but also on the way down – much like what margin financing did to stocks in 2015.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

China\u2019s fresh boom nears peak just as amateurs pile in<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tyler highlights the “irrational exuberance” in commodities futures markets but Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph nails the cause:<\/p>\n

China’s reflation drive has been explosive. New home sales jumped 64pc in March from a year earlier. House prices have risen 28pc in Beijing, 30pc in Shanghai, and 63pc in the commercial hub of Shenzhen. The rush to buy has spread to the Tier 2 cities such as Hefei – up 9pc in a single month.<\/p>\n

“The housing market is on fire,” said Wei Yao, from Societe Generale. “In the first quarter, increases in total credit exploded to 7.5 trilion yuan, up 58pc year-on-year. There is no bigger policy lever than this kind of credit injection.”<\/p>\n

“This looks like an old-styled credit-backed investment-driven recovery, which bears an uncanny resemblance to the beginning of the \u201cfour trillion stimulus\u201d package in 2009. The consequence of that stimulus was inflation, asset bubbles and excess capacity. We still think that this recovery will not last very long,” she said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"China<\/p>\n

Yang Zhao from Nomura …. said the law of diminishing returns is setting in as the economy nears credit exhaustion. The ‘incremental credit-output ratio” has deteriorated to 5.0 from 2.3 in 2008. Loans are losing traction and the quality of investment is falling.<\/p>\n

“Be careful. We are nearing the point where things are as good as they get for the first half of 2016. We recommend taking some money off the table,” said Wendy Liu and Vicky Fung, the bank’s equity strategists.<\/p>\n

….Michelle Lam from Lombard Street Research said Beijing has retreated from reform and resorted to pump-priming again. “This may last for one or two quarters. But how much longer can Beijing go on creating debt at a breakneck pace?” she said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"China<\/p>\n

Their actions reveal desperation at the PBOC. Faced with the unpalatable choice between running down foreign reserves at the rate of more than $50 billion a month, to support the dollar peg, or devaluing the Yuan which would fuel even greater capital flight, the central bank opted to inject a further round of credit stimulus to ease the immediate pressure. There are no free lunches: further credit expansion pushes China’s economy ever closer to a financial crisis.<\/p>\n

We are in for a volatile year. Make that a decade…..<\/p>\n

Source: The Stunning Chart Showing Where All The Commodity Gains Have Come From | Zero Hedge<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: China’s fresh boom nears peak just as amateurs pile in | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Where All The Commodity Gains Have Come From Tyler Durden: Trading in futures on everything from steel reinforcement bars and hot-rolled coils to cotton and polyvinyl chloride has soared this week, prompting exchanges in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou to boost fees or issue warnings to investors. Eventually, the excesses will need to be curbed and … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “China’s credit boom: How long will it last?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,43],"tags":[851,885,934,1715,2356,2711,2878,2893,3239],"class_list":["post-13199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-commodities-gold-commodities","tag-cotton","tag-credit-stimulus","tag-dalian-futures","tag-hot-rolled-coils","tag-money-supply","tag-polyvinyl-chloride","tag-rebar","tag-reflation","tag-steel-reinforcement-bars"],"yoast_head":"\nChina's credit boom: How long will it last? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China's credit boom: How long will it last? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Where All The Commodity Gains Have Come From Tyler Durden: Trading in futures on everything from steel reinforcement bars and hot-rolled coils to cotton and polyvinyl chloride has soared this week, prompting exchanges in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou to boost fees or issue warnings to investors. 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The major contract price for deformed steel bar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3.51% to 4,183 yuan ($655.50) per ton Monday \u2014 its lowest since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Iron Ore","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-16-tr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-16-tr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-16-tr.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-11-16-tr.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20784,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/18\/iron-ore-fails-to-lift-heavyweight-miners\/","url_meta":{"origin":13199,"position":1},"title":"Iron ore fails to lift heavyweight miners","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 18, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore is sitting at $103.18 per metric ton after breaking resistance at 95.00. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Rising troughs on the Trend Index signal buying pressure and respect would signal another advance. Steel rebar futures (June '20) found support at 400 but only breakout above\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25738,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/12\/iron-ore-bull-bear-outlooks\/","url_meta":{"origin":13199,"position":2},"title":"Iron ore: Bull & bear outlooks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore prices are soaring but there are widely differing views about how long this will last. From Investing.com: Ark Invest\u2019s Cathie Wood, whose ARK Innovation ETF was the top-performing U.S. equity fund last year.....said in a webinar Tuesday that she sees spiking commodity prices as a sign that businesses\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20440,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/02\/asx-falters\/","url_meta":{"origin":13199,"position":3},"title":"ASX falters","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 2, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Baltic Dry Index is re-testing support at 600, below the 663 low from December 2008.\u00a0 A Trend Index peak below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of 600 would warn of another test of the February record low at 400. Dry-bulk shipping rates reflect global (largely Chinese) demand for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20487,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/09\/asx-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":13199,"position":4},"title":"ASX headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 index is testing resistance at 5500 but Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would indicate another test of 4500. Breakout above 5500 is unlikely, and would signal further gains, but we do not foresee a V-shaped recovery. The RBA's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20535,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/16\/asx-faces-an-approaching-storm\/","url_meta":{"origin":13199,"position":5},"title":"ASX and the approaching storm","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 16, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We retain our strong weighting in cash, fixed income and gold as we expect another test of recent lows. The ASX 200 index continues to encounter stubborn resistance at 5500, while Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and reversal below 5200 would indicate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13199","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13199"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13199\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}