{"id":13187,"date":"2016-04-18T21:25:12","date_gmt":"2016-04-19T01:25:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13187"},"modified":"2016-04-18T21:25:12","modified_gmt":"2016-04-19T01:25:12","slug":"the-elusive-boost-from-cheap-oil-economic-research","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/18\/the-elusive-boost-from-cheap-oil-economic-research\/","title":{"rendered":"The Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil | Economic Research"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sylvain Leduc, Kevin Moran, and Robert J. Vigfusson in the FRBSF Economic Letter:<\/p>\n

Why has consumption not responded more to cheap oil? Clearly, the U.S. economy was buffeted by headwinds over the past year, like weak foreign growth and the substantial appreciation of the dollar, that may have masked the positive effects of cheaper oil. Moreover, the decline in gas prices has been more muted than the drop in the price of oil. However, another possible reason is that the impact of changes in oil prices on the economy depends not only on the magnitude of the change, but also on its perceived persistence. Consumer spending is more likely to rise if people believe the decline in oil prices will last for a while; by contrast, if consumers think lower oil prices are not here to stay, they may simply decide to save what they don\u2019t spend at the pump.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Figure 4: Estimated share of permanence in oil price movements<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Economic Research | The Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sylvain Leduc, Kevin Moran, and Robert J. Vigfusson in the FRBSF Economic Letter: Why has consumption not responded more to cheap oil? Clearly, the U.S. economy was buffeted by headwinds over the past year, like weak foreign growth and the substantial appreciation of the dollar, that may have masked the positive effects of cheaper oil. … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil | Economic Research”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,5],"tags":[799,898],"class_list":["post-13187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-economy","tag-consumer-spending","tag-crude-oil-2"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil | Economic Research - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil | Economic Research - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sylvain Leduc, Kevin Moran, and Robert J. Vigfusson in the FRBSF Economic Letter: Why has consumption not responded more to cheap oil? Clearly, the U.S. economy was buffeted by headwinds over the past year, like weak foreign growth and the substantial appreciation of the dollar, that may have masked the positive effects of cheaper oil. … Continue reading "The Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil | Economic Research"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/18\/the-elusive-boost-from-cheap-oil-economic-research\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-04-19T01:25:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/2016-13-4.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/18\/the-elusive-boost-from-cheap-oil-economic-research\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/18\/the-elusive-boost-from-cheap-oil-economic-research\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"The Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil | Economic Research\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-04-19T01:25:12+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/18\/the-elusive-boost-from-cheap-oil-economic-research\/\"},\"wordCount\":178,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/18\/the-elusive-boost-from-cheap-oil-economic-research\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/2016-13-4.png\",\"keywords\":[\"consumer spending\",\"crude oil\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Crude Oil & Natural Gas\",\"Economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/18\/the-elusive-boost-from-cheap-oil-economic-research\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/18\/the-elusive-boost-from-cheap-oil-economic-research\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/18\/the-elusive-boost-from-cheap-oil-economic-research\/\",\"name\":\"The Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil | Economic Research - 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In three sentences: Consumer spending represents 68% of the US economy. Oil and gas capex represents about 1% of US GDP and less than 9% of US total capex (which in turn represents about 12%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":50117,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/18\/us-gasoline-prices-consumer-sentiment\/","url_meta":{"origin":13187,"position":1},"title":"US gasoline prices & consumer sentiment","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 18, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"There is a historic link between US gasoline prices and consumer sentiment. The March University of Michigan survey shows consumer sentiment is rising, with the 3-month average at 77.5. Roughly mid-way between peaks and troughs over the past sixty years. But real retail sales also dipped below their long-term trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":33704,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/28\/sp-500-rallies-as-crude-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":13187,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500 rallies as crude falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 28, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 rallied above the key 4000 level in response to easing long-term interest rates. 10-Year Treasury yields retreated from resistance at 3.00% on expectations that inflation has peaked. CPI growth eased slightly to 8.2% for the 12 months to April, from 8.6% in March. It is no coincidence\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-spx.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61570,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/02\/trade-war-risks-an-oil-price-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":13187,"position":3},"title":"Trade war risks an oil price war","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 2, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The threat of a global trade war precipitated by President Trump's tariffs on imports has sent oil prices plunging, anticipating a global recession OPEC+ announced a planned 411,000 barrels per day increase in output in May, three times earlier monthly increments Low oil prices have put the Saudi budget\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48842,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/21\/will-the-fed-cut-rates-in-response-to-rising-crude-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":13187,"position":4},"title":"Will the Fed cut rates in response to rising crude prices?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The two most important prices in the global economy are crude oil and the 10-year Treasury yield. A sharp spike in either normally causes a recession. Households curb spending as energy costs or borrowing costs take a large bite out of disposable income, leading to falling demand and a recession.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"History of Real Crude Prices: WTI Light Crude\/CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58323,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/14\/stabilizing-crude-oil-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":13187,"position":5},"title":"Stabilizing crude oil prices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Volatile crude oil prices damage production capacity and economic growth and cause volatile consumer price inflation. At the height of the 2020 pandemic, Nymex WTI crude oil prices fell to an unprecedented low of -$13.10 per barrel as demand dried up and oil storage facilities reached capacity. Producers faced a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-14-crude3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-14-crude3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-14-crude3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13187\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}