{"id":13117,"date":"2016-04-11T21:22:27","date_gmt":"2016-04-12T01:22:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13117"},"modified":"2016-04-11T21:22:27","modified_gmt":"2016-04-12T01:22:27","slug":"low-interest-rates-and-secular-stagnation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/11\/low-interest-rates-and-secular-stagnation\/","title":{"rendered":"Low interest rates and secular stagnation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Interesting observation by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, a research associate at the NBER:<\/p>\n

In recent theoretical work, Caballero, Farhi, and I show that the safe-asset scarcity mutates at the ZLB [Zero Lower Bound], from a benign phenomenon that depresses risk-free rates to a malign one where interest rates cannot equilibrate asset markets any longer, leading to a global recession. The reason is that the decline in output reduces net-asset demand more than asset supply. Hence our analysis predicts the emergence of potentially persistent global-liquidity traps, a situation that actually exists in most of the advanced economies today.<\/p>\n

…..our results point to a modern \u2014 and more sinister \u2014 version of the Triffin dilemma. As the world economy grows faster than that of the U.S., so does the global demand for safe assets relative to their supply. This depresses global interest rates and could push the global economy into a persistent ZLB environment, a form of secular stagnation.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: The Structure of the International Monetary System | NBER<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Interesting observation by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, a research associate at the NBER: In recent theoretical work, Caballero, Farhi, and I show that the safe-asset scarcity mutates at the ZLB [Zero Lower Bound], from a benign phenomenon that depresses risk-free rates to a malign one where interest rates cannot equilibrate asset markets any longer, leading to a … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Low interest rates and secular stagnation”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[1858,3062,3739],"class_list":["post-13117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-interest-rates","tag-secular-stagnation","tag-zero-lower-bound"],"yoast_head":"\nLow interest rates and secular stagnation - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Low interest rates and secular stagnation - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Interesting observation by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, a research associate at the NBER: In recent theoretical work, Caballero, Farhi, and I show that the safe-asset scarcity mutates at the ZLB [Zero Lower Bound], from a benign phenomenon that depresses risk-free rates to a malign one where interest rates cannot equilibrate asset markets any longer, leading to a … Continue reading "Low interest rates and secular stagnation"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/11\/low-interest-rates-and-secular-stagnation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-04-12T01:22:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/monetary_3.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/11\/low-interest-rates-and-secular-stagnation\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/11\/low-interest-rates-and-secular-stagnation\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Low interest rates and secular stagnation\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-04-12T01:22:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/11\/low-interest-rates-and-secular-stagnation\/\"},\"wordCount\":169,\"commentCount\":2,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/11\/low-interest-rates-and-secular-stagnation\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/monetary_3.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"interest rates\",\"secular stagnation\",\"Zero Lower Bound\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks & Interest Rates\",\"US & Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/11\/low-interest-rates-and-secular-stagnation\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/11\/low-interest-rates-and-secular-stagnation\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/11\/low-interest-rates-and-secular-stagnation\/\",\"name\":\"Low interest rates and secular stagnation - 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Low interest rates enabled households to borrow more relative to their income, with housing debt expanding 4.5 times, over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20200,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/04\/why-invest-in-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":13117,"position":1},"title":"Why invest in Gold?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 4, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"In order to help the global economy to recover from the 2008 financial crisis, major central banks embarked on a massive quantitative easing (QE) program, expanding the total assets on their balance sheets from $5 trillion to $21 trillion ten years later. The graph from Ed Yardeni below shows total\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6215,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/18\/the-liquidity-trap\/","url_meta":{"origin":13117,"position":2},"title":"The Liquidity Trap","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 18, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"In his 2003 paper Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others Lars E.O. Svensson describes the liquidity trap experienced by countries such as Japan and lately the US, when central bank interest rates are close to zero percent. 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Recent performance is more\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7527,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/22\/fed-watch-monetary-policy-and-financial-stability\/","url_meta":{"origin":13117,"position":4},"title":"Fed Watch: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 22, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Tim Duty quotes Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota, speaking at the 22nd Annual Hyman P. Minsky conference: ....unusually low real interest rates should be expected to be linked with inflated asset prices, high asset return volatility and heightened merger activity. 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