{"id":13035,"date":"2016-03-18T17:14:02","date_gmt":"2016-03-18T21:14:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13035"},"modified":"2016-03-18T17:14:02","modified_gmt":"2016-03-18T21:14:02","slug":"chinas-looming-currency-crisis-wsj","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/18\/chinas-looming-currency-crisis-wsj\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s Looming Currency Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Yuan strengthened against the Dollar, breaking support at 6.50 (USDCNY) as Chinese authorities attempt to squeeze short-sellers. But the primary trend is unchanged and warns of further weakness.<\/p>\n

\"USDCNY\"<\/p>\n

From Anne Stevenson-Yang and Kevin Dougherty at WSJ:<\/p>\n

After initial declines in the Chinese market to start the year, the past few weeks have seen signs of what some would call a rebound. Lending in China rose by 67% in January, iron-ore prices initially rallied by 64% and housing sales in the top four markets surged…..<\/p>\n

Chinese authorities have been trying to bring back the old, quasisuperstitious belief in Beijing\u2019s omnipotence. But the political desperation behind these efforts betrays a different story: that an impending currency crisis is a signal of the dream\u2019s undoing. That\u2019s why in China getting money out of the country is now the major preoccupation of both families and corporations.<\/p>\n

One way to stem the crisis would be through depreciation. That would be sound policy for the people of China, but it\u2019s a dreaded last resort for a leadership that wants, more than jobs for its people, to bolster buying power and save political face overseas. Yet history shows that holding the line on the currency is a losing strategy. Tightened liquidity causes more pain to the economy and simply delays the inevitable.<\/p>\n

In other countries, currency crises usually followed a sudden and irreversible loss of confidence. The Asian Tigers were booming and then fell apart rapidly. Same in Russia. China faces the added difficulty of having little institutional memory and few tools to manage the economy in a time of capital scarcity. And there is no sign that capital-outflow pressure will ease.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

From David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The macro logic here is impeccable and Ms Ms. Stevenson-Yang knows China better than most. I actually think that Chinese officials already understand this and the current back and forth on yuan policy is them searching for a way to do it in a manageable glide slope rather than crash.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I agree that China faces a currency crisis. I lived through one in South Africa in the 1980s and recognize the signs: purchase of offshore homes, local companies bidding for offshore acquisitions, over-invoicing, local residents using ingenious methods to avoid capital controls…..<\/p>\n

This graph of the US Dollar\/South African Rand exchange rate from Wikipedia covers the early alarm in the 1980s, when the Rand fell from parity against the greenback, through to the current “Zuma-gate” when the Rand hit 15 to the Dollar in late 2015:<\/p>\n

\"USDZAR<\/p>\n

Capital controls are too late. The horse has bolted. Trying to prevent Chinese residents from moving their capital to a safer climate is as effective as herding cats. The only way depreciation can work is “shock and awe”: a massive once-off devaluation of the Yuan. Gradual weakening of the currency will simply reinforce the panic. <\/p>\n

I shudder to think of the effects a dramatic fall in the Yuan would have on global capital markets. Chinese companies would be forced to default of USD-denominated debt. Trading partners, including the US and Europe, would be forced to respond with competing devaluations to avoid the contagion. I think (and hope) that Chinese officials have been persuaded that this is not an option.<\/p>\n

….Which leaves capital controls, and eating through China’s $3 trillion plus of foreign reserves to support the Yuan, as the least-worst option. Or is that simply kicking the can down the road?<\/p>\n

Source: China\u2019s Looming Currency Crisis – WSJ<\/a><\/p>\n

Hat tip to David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Yuan strengthened against the Dollar, breaking support at 6.50 (USDCNY) as Chinese authorities attempt to squeeze short-sellers. But the primary trend is unchanged and warns of further weakness. From Anne Stevenson-Yang and Kevin Dougherty at WSJ: After initial declines in the Chinese market to start the year, the past few weeks have seen signs … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “China\u2019s Looming Currency Crisis”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s Looming Currency Crisis - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s Looming Currency Crisis - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Yuan strengthened against the Dollar, breaking support at 6.50 (USDCNY) as Chinese authorities attempt to squeeze short-sellers. 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First off, the two largest currency-manipulating central banks currently at work in the world\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Foreign Reserves","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-19-fxreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-19-fxreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-19-fxreserves.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13781,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/13\/a-currency-war-has-begun-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":13035,"position":1},"title":"A currency war has begun….","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 13, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan all expanded their balance sheets (commonly referred to as quantitative easing or QE for short) post-2008 to counteract a contracting money supply and prevent a deflationary spiral. These actions also have the beneficial effect of weakening the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-13-currencywar.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":57745,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/25\/currency-wars-on-the-horizon\/","url_meta":{"origin":13035,"position":2},"title":"Currency wars are bullish for gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 25, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The US Dollar broke long-term support at 7.06 against the Chinese Yuan last week after the Fed confirmed it was cutting interest rates. Follow-through below 7.00 against the Yuan would confirm a Dollar bear market. Within days, China announced new measures to support its economy: - Lowering rates on existing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Chinese Yuan","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-cny.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":28155,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/05\/evergrande-threat-to-chinas-shadow-banking-system\/","url_meta":{"origin":13035,"position":3},"title":"Evergrande threat to China’s shadow banking system","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Stephen Bartholomeusz at The Sydney Morning Herald: \"China\u2019s authorities appear to be trying to prevent Evergrande\u2019s implosion from developing into a property market crash and social unrest, with the local government authorities being directed to do what they can to take over and complete the group\u2019s unfinished developments and to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12999,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/14\/the-real-reason-to-worry-about-china-bloomberg-view\/","url_meta":{"origin":13035,"position":4},"title":"The Real Reason to Worry About China | Bloomberg View","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 14, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"An important reminder from Narayana Kocherlakota: For more than 20 years, China has kept the yuan's value against the dollar in a very tight range. Although the exchange rate isn\u2019t actually pegged (the Chinese currency has appreciated at a rate of about 2 percent per year against the dollar over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1613,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/27\/heres-what-will-happen-when-chinas-bubble-bursts\/","url_meta":{"origin":13035,"position":5},"title":"Here’s What Will Happen When China’s Bubble Bursts","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 27, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"What would a China slowdown mean for the rest of us? In the main, three things will become evident. First, China will remain committed to letting its currency, the yuan, rise in international foreign-exchange markets. A stronger currency will encourage companies to rely less on exports and more on goods\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13035","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13035"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13035\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13035"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13035"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13035"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}