{"id":12942,"date":"2016-03-09T19:59:15","date_gmt":"2016-03-10T00:59:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12942"},"modified":"2016-03-09T19:59:15","modified_gmt":"2016-03-10T00:59:15","slug":"where-oil-goes-stocks-will-follow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/09\/where-oil-goes-stocks-will-follow\/","title":{"rendered":"Where oil goes, stocks will follow"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Patrick<\/p>\n

From Patrick Chovanec, Chief Strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management<\/a>:<\/p>\n

…..so far this year stock market sentiment has taken many of its cues from the price of oil. On any given day, if you knew which way oil prices moved, you probably could tell which way the stock market moved. While we believe this linkage fails to recognize the critical distinctions we have so often highlighted, it can’t be ignored in anticipating future market movements, at least in the near-term. The recent firming of oil prices reflects some important developments. After more than a year, we are finally seeing the initial signs of capitulation on the supply side: U.S. oil output has topped out and the most vulnerable OPEC members are agitating for cutbacks. Nevertheless, accumulated crude oil inventories remain at record high levels, which makes us wary concluding that the oil market has reached a hard bottom. While we think the oil price, and the producer industry, will gradually recover, we also think \u201cconsensus\u201d expectations of a dramatic +20% gain in S&P 500 operating earnings this year, driven by a large and sudden rebound in the energy and materials sectors, continue to be overly optimistic. With this in mind, we are likely to see more sentiment-driven volatility in U.S. stock prices ahead, even as the U.S. economy continues on its path of slow growth.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Keep a weather eye on the flattening yield curve and shrinking bank interest margins. If these continue to shrink, “slow growth” could easily become “no growth”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Patrick Chovanec, Chief Strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management: …..so far this year stock market sentiment has taken many of its cues from the price of oil. On any given day, if you knew which way oil prices moved, you probably could tell which way the stock market moved. While we believe this linkage fails … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Where oil goes, stocks will follow”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,34],"tags":[898,2571,2612],"class_list":["post-12942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-crude-oil-2","tag-opec","tag-patrick-chovanec"],"yoast_head":"\nWhere oil goes, stocks will follow - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Where oil goes, stocks will follow - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Patrick Chovanec, Chief Strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management: …..so far this year stock market sentiment has taken many of its cues from the price of oil. 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Breach would offer a target of 4.0%. Falling long-term yields would be bearish for the Dollar. Breach of 103 on the Dollar Index would offer a target of 100. The weak Dollar is obviously bullish for Gold which has now reached\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-27-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-27-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-27-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15680,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/08\/06\/this-oil-price-rally-has-reached-its-limit-on-line-opinion\/","url_meta":{"origin":12942,"position":1},"title":"This oil price rally has reached its limit – On Line Opinion","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 6, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Good summary of the oil market by Nicholas Cunningham - posted Friday, 4 August 2017: There are several significant reasons why oil prices have regained most of the lost ground since the end of May.... OPEC cuts; US shale expansion is slowing; Several OPEC members have promised deeper cuts; and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":50117,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/18\/us-gasoline-prices-consumer-sentiment\/","url_meta":{"origin":12942,"position":2},"title":"US gasoline prices & consumer sentiment","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 18, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"There is a historic link between US gasoline prices and consumer sentiment. The March University of Michigan survey shows consumer sentiment is rising, with the 3-month average at 77.5. Roughly mid-way between peaks and troughs over the past sixty years. But real retail sales also dipped below their long-term trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20285,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/18\/bottom-falls-out-of-crude-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":12942,"position":3},"title":"Bottom falls out of crude market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 18, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Jim Stock writes that end sales of gasoline are down 46% and jet fuel down 52%. Production cuts will have no effect if they are in response to shrinking demand. Estimates of demand destruction range from 20 to 35 Mbpd. Nymex crude broke support at $20 per barrel, falling below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61570,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/02\/trade-war-risks-an-oil-price-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":12942,"position":4},"title":"Trade war risks an oil price war","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 2, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The threat of a global trade war precipitated by President Trump's tariffs on imports has sent oil prices plunging, anticipating a global recession OPEC+ announced a planned 411,000 barrels per day increase in output in May, three times earlier monthly increments Low oil prices have put the Saudi budget\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":53881,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/04\/oil-prices-plunge\/","url_meta":{"origin":12942,"position":5},"title":"Oil prices plunge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 4, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Nymex light crude broke support at $77 per barrel, closing at $74 after a weekend OPEC+ meeting that was interpreted as loosening previous production cuts. China's lackluster recovery has depressed global demand while strong US production boosted supply. But several OPEC+ members are under economic pressure because of weak prices\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex Light Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-04-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-04-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-04-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12942","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12942"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12942\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12942"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12942"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12942"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}