{"id":12930,"date":"2016-03-09T18:43:38","date_gmt":"2016-03-09T23:43:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12930"},"modified":"2016-03-09T18:43:38","modified_gmt":"2016-03-09T23:43:38","slug":"chinas-trilemma-and-a-possible-solution-brookings-institution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/09\/chinas-trilemma-and-a-possible-solution-brookings-institution\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s trilemma\u2014and a possible solution | Brookings Institution"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/couragetoactbook.com\/\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Ben Bernanke: The Courage to Act\" alt=\"Ben Bernanke: The Courage to Act\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/book-cover.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>From Ben Bernanke:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>China faces the classic policy trilemma of international economics, that a country cannot simultaneously have more than two of the following three: (1) a fixed exchange rate; (2) independent monetary policy; and (3) free international capital flows. Accordingly, China\u2019s ability to manage its exchange rate may depend, among other factors, on its willingness and ability to adjust on other policy margins.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;..An economy that is growing more slowly, and in which monetary easing is the principal macroeconomic response, is not an economy that offers high returns to domestic savers. Consequently, Chinese households and firms who are able to do so are spurning yuan-denominated investments and looking abroad for higher returns. However, increased private capital outflows also constitute a flight from the yuan toward the dollar and other currencies; that, in turn, puts downward pressure on China\u2019s exchange rate.<\/p>\n<p>In the short run, the PBOC can offset this pressure by selling some of its enormous stocks of dollar-denominated securities and buying yuan; indeed, Chinese reserves have fallen over $700 billion over the past year and a half. With more than $3 trillion in reserves yet remaining, China should be able to defend its exchange rate for some time. If nothing else changes, however, eventually China will run low on reserves and will no longer be willing or able to buy up yuan in the foreign-exchange market. At that point the currency would fall, probably sharply&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The former Fed Chairman&#8217;s analysis of possible solutions provides insight into the extent of the problem:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Sharp devaluation would cause global deflation and spark currency wars;<\/li>\n<li>Controls on capital outflows are unlikely to be effective and would discourage investment; and<\/li>\n<li>Fiscal policies aimed at re-balancing the economy and increased welfare payments would need massive scale to have an impact.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>It is clear there is a giant panda (rather than an elephant) loose in the lifeboat which is likely to destabilize the global economy over the next decade. <\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blogs\/ben-bernanke\/posts\/2016\/03\/09-china-trilemma\">China\u2019s trilemma\u2014and a possible solution | Brookings Institution<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Ben Bernanke: China faces the classic policy trilemma of international economics, that a country cannot simultaneously have more than two of the following three: (1) a fixed exchange rate; (2) independent monetary policy; and (3) free international capital flows. Accordingly, China\u2019s ability to manage its exchange rate may depend, among other factors, on its &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/09\/chinas-trilemma-and-a-possible-solution-brookings-institution\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;China\u2019s trilemma\u2014and a possible solution | Brookings Institution&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>China\u2019s trilemma\u2014and a possible solution | Brookings Institution - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s trilemma\u2014and a possible solution | Brookings Institution - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Ben Bernanke: China faces the classic policy trilemma of international economics, that a country cannot simultaneously have more than two of the following three: (1) a fixed exchange rate; (2) independent monetary policy; and (3) free international capital flows. 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A test of support at 3100 is likely. Rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure but this may be distorted by state intervention in the stock market earlier this year. * Target medium-term: 3100 + ( 3100 -\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14699,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/20\/best-time-to-short-commodities-since-2012\/","url_meta":{"origin":12930,"position":1},"title":"Best time to short commodities since 2012","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 20, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Vesna Poljak: ....China's stimulus is finite and demand for raw materials will collapse without it. Australian Atul Lele, the Bahamas-based chief investment officer of private wealth manager Deltec, says all monetary and fiscal stimulus has a natural conclusion \u2013 \"it just ends\" \u2013 and traditional indicators of commodity prices\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9898,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/26\/chinas-export-dilemna\/","url_meta":{"origin":12930,"position":2},"title":"China&#8217;s export dilemna","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth in value of exports from China has slowed to single figures since 2012. It will be difficult sustain current GDP growth if this trend continues. The Harper Petersen index of shipping rates for container vessels, the Harpex, remains near its 2010 low, reflecting continued weakness in Asian manufactured goods\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Exports","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62958,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/26\/china-is-breaking-the-global-monetary-system\/","url_meta":{"origin":12930,"position":3},"title":"China is breaking the global monetary system","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 26, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points President Trump hopes to cement a trade deal with China's Xi Jinping at their meeting on Thursday. China is unlikely to abandon its investment-led growth model that has delivered much progress in the past 25 years. However, China's model is damaging the global economy and monetary system. China's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Consumption & Investment Compared to other Developed Economies","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-24-china-cons-inv.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-24-china-cons-inv.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-24-china-cons-inv.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13722,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/26\/chinas-export-dilemna-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":12930,"position":4},"title":"China&#8217;s export dilemna","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth in value of exports from China has slowed to single figures since 2012. It will be difficult sustain current GDP growth if this trend continues. The Harper Petersen index of shipping rates for container vessels, the Harpex, remains near its 2010 low, reflecting continued weakness in Asian manufactured goods\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Exports","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15099,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/05\/rba-monetary-policy-what-could-go-wrong\/","url_meta":{"origin":12930,"position":5},"title":"RBA Monetary Policy: What could go wrong?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 5, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor Monetary Policy Decision 4 April 2017 At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. Conditions in the global economy have improved over recent months. Both global trade and industrial production have picked up. Labour markets have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12930","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12930"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12930\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}