{"id":12917,"date":"2016-03-06T21:32:23","date_gmt":"2016-03-07T02:32:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12917"},"modified":"2016-03-06T21:32:23","modified_gmt":"2016-03-07T02:32:23","slug":"minack-exclusive-australian-recession-risk-still-live-macrobusiness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/06\/minack-exclusive-australian-recession-risk-still-live-macrobusiness\/","title":{"rendered":"Minack exclusive: Australian recession risk still live | MacroBusiness"},"content":{"rendered":"

From David Llewellyn-Smith:<\/p>\n

…..real GDP remains a misleading measure of how Australia is faring. The key to the mining boom was not GDP strength \u2013 real GDP growth was weaker than in the 1990s \u2013 but the income uplift from rising terms of trade. The issue now is the income drag from the terms of trade falling. Real per capita net income fell 2\u00bc% through 2016. Australia is now the midst of the longest period of declining per capita income since quarterly data started in 1959 (Exhibit 1).\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Minack exclusive: Australian recession risk still live – MacroBusiness<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From David Llewellyn-Smith: …..real GDP remains a misleading measure of how Australia is faring. The key to the mining boom was not GDP strength \u2013 real GDP growth was weaker than in the 1990s \u2013 but the income uplift from rising terms of trade. The issue now is the income drag from the terms of … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Minack exclusive: Australian recession risk still live | MacroBusiness”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nMinack exclusive: Australian recession risk still live | MacroBusiness - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Minack exclusive: Australian recession risk still live | MacroBusiness - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From David Llewellyn-Smith: …..real GDP remains a misleading measure of how Australia is faring. The key to the mining boom was not GDP strength \u2013 real GDP growth was weaker than in the 1990s \u2013 but the income uplift from rising terms of trade. 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The Manufacturing PMI continues to signal contraction (below 50) but the rate slowed to 49.6 in both April and May.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Judo Bank\/S&P Global Composite PMI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-23-aus-judo-pmi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-23-aus-judo-pmi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-23-aus-judo-pmi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-23-aus-judo-pmi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":54477,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/14\/54477\/","url_meta":{"origin":12917,"position":1},"title":"Australian households feel the pain","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian unemployment increased to 4.0% in May but that's not the full picture. Unemployment declined to 4.0% from 4.1% in April, but the trend increased to 4.0% from 3.9%. Increases remain low compared to pre-pandemic rates of unemployment. Underemployment and trend both remained steady at 6.7%. 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Their conclusions are based on a February 16 research note by Gareth Aird at Commbank Divergence between the Australian and US consumer which provides some excellent charts: The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate & RBA Cash Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":52731,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/13\/us-consumer-incomes-and-credit-card-debt\/","url_meta":{"origin":12917,"position":3},"title":"US consumer incomes and credit card debt","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 13, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Many market commentators talk about the struggling US consumer, with rising costs forcing them to take on expensive debt, but this is not borne out by the data. Real disposable personal income per capita (blue below) reached $50.4K in March, compared to the pre-pandemic peak of $48K in Feb 2020.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita & Government Transfers","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-12-realdspi-percapita.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-12-realdspi-percapita.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-12-realdspi-percapita.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5990,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/","url_meta":{"origin":12917,"position":4},"title":"Middle-income traps in Asian countries | FRBSF","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 3, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Excerpt from a paper by Israel Malkin and Mark M. Spiegel at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The two believe that China's richest provinces, Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing a slow-down in GDP growth (per capita) as they experience a classic middle-income trap, while China's poorer provinces continue\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14784,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/10\/now-the-economys-transition-phase-is-ending-wages-can-start-rising\/","url_meta":{"origin":12917,"position":5},"title":"Australian economy’s transition phase is ending","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 10, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"From Ross Gittins: The economist who's long made a close study of Australia's commodity booms, past and present, and the problems they've caused when they bust, is Dr David Gruen, now deputy secretary, economic, of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. In a speech he gave last week, Gruen\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12917"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12917\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}