![\"Nymex](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-03-01-crude.png?resize=525%2C447&ssl=1\" "\\"Nymex")
<\/p>\nCrude finds support at $30\/barrel, iron ore rallies, the Dollar strengthens, long-term interest rates fall and all seems right with the world. But is it? Deflationary pressures in Europe are rising. China cut bank reserve requirements to stimulate lending. And long-term interest rates would be rising, not falling, if confidence is restored.<\/p>\n
Nymex WTI Light Crude futures (June 2016) found support at $30 per barrel. Expect a test of $40\/barrel. But the primary trend is down and respect of the descending trendline is likely, which would warn of another decline.<\/p>\n
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* Target calculation: 30 – ( 40 – 30 ) = 20<\/p>\n
Long-term interest rates remain weak, with 10-year Treasury yields testing primary support at 1.5\/1.65 percent. The flight from stocks is driving up Treasuries (and yields lower), overwhelming sales by China (to shore up the Yuan). Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of further weakness.<\/p>\n
![\"10-year](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-03-01-tnx.png?resize=525%2C363&ssl=1\" "\\"10-year")
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The Dollar Index rallied over the past two weeks but further PBOC selling is expected to reinforce resistance at 100. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n
![\"Dollar](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-03-01-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&ssl=1\" "\\"Dollar")
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Gold has benefited from the uncertainty, with consolidation above $1200 suggesting another advance. Breakout above $1250 would offer a target of $1300*.<\/p>\n
![\"Spot](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-03-01-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&ssl=1\" "\\"Spot")
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* Target calculation: 1200 + ( 1200 – 1100 ) = 1300<\/p>\n
The monthly chart, however, reflects a more precarious position. Momentum has clearly shifted, with breach of the descending trendline and a sharp rise on the 13-week indicator. But there is no higher trough confirming the trend change. So pick your entry points carefully and maintain tight stops. This could still go either way.<\/p>\n
![\"Spot](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-03-01-goldm.png?resize=525%2C363&ssl=1\" "\\"Spot")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Crude finds support at $30\/barrel, iron ore rallies, the Dollar strengthens, long-term interest rates fall and all seems right with the world. But is it? Deflationary pressures in Europe are rising. China cut bank reserve requirements to stimulate lending. And long-term interest rates would be rising, not falling, if confidence is restored. Crude Nymex WTI … <\/p>\n