{"id":12874,"date":"2016-02-22T03:02:35","date_gmt":"2016-02-22T08:02:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12874"},"modified":"2016-02-22T03:02:35","modified_gmt":"2016-02-22T08:02:35","slug":"sp-500-still-flaky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/22\/sp-500-still-flaky\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 still flaky"},"content":{"rendered":"

From Howard Silverblatt at S&P Indices:<\/p>\n

“With almost 90% of the Q4 2015 earnings reported, 67.6% of the issues are beating estimates (the historical rate is two-thirds), but only 36.8% beat As Reported<\/b> GAAP rule based earnings estimates and less than half, 46.8%, beat sales estimates.<\/p>\n

Explained \u2018responsibility\u2019 for any short fall on the cost side includes currency costs and a growing list of special one-time items (never to be repeated, of course). On the income side, helping earnings, are the \u2018difficult decisions made\u2019 by companies under the heading of cost-cutting (as layoffs and location changes appear to be on the rise).”\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

As Reported 12-Month Earnings Per Share (EPS) for the S&P 500 has fallen 12.5% from its Q3 2014 high, with 88.5% of companies having reported.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

While same-quarter sales will fall an estimated 2.6% in December 2015.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Manufacturing activity is declining, with the PMI Composite index below 50 signaling contraction.<\/p>\n

\"PMI<\/p>\n

Growth in the Freight Transportation Services Index has also slowed.<\/p>\n

\"Freight<\/p>\n

But electricity production recovered from its alarming downward spike in December last year.<\/p>\n

\"Freight<\/p>\n

The jobs market remains bouyant, with annual manufacturing earnings growth rising 2.5%.<\/p>\n

\"Annual<\/p>\n

Inflation has kicked upwards as a result.<\/p>\n

\"CPI<\/p>\n

While profit margins are likely to remain under pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Nonfinancial<\/p>\n

Light vehicle and retail sales are holding their own.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

\"Retail<\/p>\n

And bank lending continues to post steady growth.<\/p>\n

\"Bank<\/p>\n

But net interest margins have fallen below their 2007 lows.<\/p>\n

\"Bank<\/p>\n

With rising spreads warning of a credit squeeze.<\/p>\n

\"10-year<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Sales levels are reasonably healthy, but rising wages and competition from imports is putting pressure on profits. Rising credit spreads and falling margins suggest all is not well in the banking sector, which could impact on broader economic activity.<\/p>\n

Housing starts remain slow.<\/p>\n

\"Housing<\/p>\n

Only when this sector (housing) eventually revives can we expect to see a full recovery.<\/p>\n

\"Cement<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Howard Silverblatt at S&P Indices: “With almost 90% of the Q4 2015 earnings reported, 67.6% of the issues are beating estimates (the historical rate is two-thirds), but only 36.8% beat As Reported GAAP rule based earnings estimates and less than half, 46.8%, beat sales estimates. Explained \u2018responsibility\u2019 for any short fall on the cost … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500 still flaky”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,5,13,34],"tags":[3014],"class_list":["post-12874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-economy","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-sp-500-index"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 still flaky - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500 still flaky - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Howard Silverblatt at S&P Indices: “With almost 90% of the Q4 2015 earnings reported, 67.6% of the issues are beating estimates (the historical rate is two-thirds), but only 36.8% beat As Reported GAAP rule based earnings estimates and less than half, 46.8%, beat sales estimates. 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Forward estimates for 2017 contracted by an average of 4.6% over the last 12 months but not sufficient to raise the forward Price-Earnings Ratio above 20. That is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earnings & Dividends"","block_context":{"text":"Earnings & Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16826,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/","url_meta":{"origin":12874,"position":1},"title":"S&P 500 earnings surge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 11, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Of companies in the S&P 500 index, 90.2% have reported their results for the quarter. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices: Sales growth at 11.0% year-on-year (Y\/Y) is close to a potential record. The earnings beat rate of 78% is also historically high, compared to an average of 67%. Operating\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4203,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/25\/an-earnings-season-only-a-pessimist-could-love-the-globe-and-mail\/","url_meta":{"origin":12874,"position":2},"title":"An earnings season only a pessimist could love – The Globe and Mail","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 25, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"With more than 25 per cent of S&P 500 companies having reported their first-quarter results, 80 per cent have exceeded analysts\u2019 consensus profit estimates \u2013 a record pace, and well above the historical average of 62 per cent. ....The record \u201cbeat rate,\u201d as earnings trackers call it, can\u2019t gloss over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17473,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/24\/sp-500-earnings-rise-while-stocks-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":12874,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500 earnings rise while stocks fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 24, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"96% of S&P 500 component stocks have reported earnings for Q3 2018. Including estimates for stocks that have not yet reported points to a 29% increase over earnings for Q3 in the previous year. What is more interesting is that S&P are projecting a further 2% increase for the next\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18217,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/17\/is-the-sp-500-way-over-priced\/","url_meta":{"origin":12874,"position":4},"title":"Is the S&P 500 way over-priced?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 17, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Shiller's CAPE (Price\/10-year simple MA of inflation-adjusted earnings) is at 30.31, the second-highest peak (behind the Dotcom bubble) in 120 years. PEmax (Price\/highest prior 12-month earnings) is far lower at 21.04. I prefer this as a more accurate measure of stock pricing than CAPE. But PEmax is still high\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":52881,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/15\/sp-500-fundamentals-dont-stack-up\/","url_meta":{"origin":12874,"position":5},"title":"S&P 500 fundamentals don’t stack up","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 15, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 threatens another advance, fueled by easy monetary conditions, but the fundamentals don't stack up. Sales and earnings multiples are stretched despite weak expected sales and earnings growth for the March quarter -- with 458 of 503 stocks in the index having reported. S&P 500 The index is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12874","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12874"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12874\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12874"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12874"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12874"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}