{"id":12862,"date":"2016-02-20T02:01:20","date_gmt":"2016-02-20T07:01:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12862"},"modified":"2016-02-20T02:01:20","modified_gmt":"2016-02-20T07:01:20","slug":"is-it-time-to-get-long-the-australian-dollar-macrobusiness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/20\/is-it-time-to-get-long-the-australian-dollar-macrobusiness\/","title":{"rendered":"Is it time to get long the Australian dollar? &#8211; MacroBusiness"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2016\/02\/is-it-time-to-get-long-the-australian-dollar\/\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/tvc_47a32bba3e471a136ec1b096305404ff.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;.Even if the US dollar does fall for a period and adds a monetary tailwind to commodity prices and currencies, it is still pushing against the fundamental commodity price weakness driven by falling Chinese demand growth and excess supply. The latter should still win in the end and the Aussie continue to fall, even if more slowly than it might have otherwise.<\/p>\n<p>Given MB still sees this oversupply as the cracked key-stone in the global business cycle arch, and expects that it is large and pervasive enough that rationalisation can only come through a global scale bankruptcy for producers sovereign and private, as well as the outlook that that poses for local growth and interest rates, our forecasts of 60 cents this year and 45 cents as the cycle low remain unchanged.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Can&#8217;t see the Aussie falling as low as 45 cents but I agree with the 2008 low of 60 cents as a 2016 target. <\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2016\/02\/is-it-time-to-get-long-the-australian-dollar\/\">Is it time to get long the Australian dollar? &#8211; MacroBusiness<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness: &#8230;.Even if the US dollar does fall for a period and adds a monetary tailwind to commodity prices and currencies, it is still pushing against the fundamental commodity price weakness driven by falling Chinese demand growth and excess supply. The latter should still win in the end and the Aussie &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/20\/is-it-time-to-get-long-the-australian-dollar-macrobusiness\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Is it time to get long the Australian dollar? &#8211; MacroBusiness&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is it time to get long the Australian dollar? - MacroBusiness - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is it time to get long the Australian dollar? - MacroBusiness - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness: &#8230;.Even if the US dollar does fall for a period and adds a monetary tailwind to commodity prices and currencies, it is still pushing against the fundamental commodity price weakness driven by falling Chinese demand growth and excess supply. 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In a longer horizon, China\u2019s ambition continues to be high. .....China\u2019s policy stance is tightening as the focus\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12826,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/01\/25\/chinas-commodity-demand-has-barely-begun-its-fall-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":12862,"position":1},"title":"China&#8217;s commodity demand has barely begun its fall &#8211; MacroBusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 25, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"These four charts, posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks by David Llewellyn-Smith, illustrate China's failure to rebalance their economy and the challenge that economies reliant on Chinese real estate and infrastructure investment, like Australia, face. ....China now accounts for fully a third of global industrial production (up from only 5%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11519,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/04\/goldman-describes-australias-lost-decade-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":12862,"position":2},"title":"Goldman describes Australia\u2019s lost decade | Macrobusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 4, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Posted by Houses and Holes. Reproduced with kind permission from Macrobusiness. Goldman\u2019s\u00a0Tim Toohey\u00a0has quantified the unwinding commodity super-cycle for 'Straya': Lower commodity prices risk $0.5trn in forgone earnings The outlook for revenues from Australian LNG and bulk commodities\u00a0shipments \u2013 which account for almost half of total export earnings \u2013 has\u00a0deteriorated\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"1","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/124-300x138.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1796,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/06\/asx-value-trap-macrobusiness-com-au\/","url_meta":{"origin":12862,"position":3},"title":"ASX value trap &#8211; macrobusiness.com.au","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 6, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Merrill Lynch reckons growth forecasts for next financial year have now dropped to below 10%, down from 19% last May. That is a pretty sharp fall, suggesting that, amongst other things, the deleveraging of indebted Australian households is having a deep impact. Merrill also notes that resources stocks are yet\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14699,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/20\/best-time-to-short-commodities-since-2012\/","url_meta":{"origin":12862,"position":4},"title":"Best time to short commodities since 2012","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 20, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Vesna Poljak: ....China's stimulus is finite and demand for raw materials will collapse without it. Australian Atul Lele, the Bahamas-based chief investment officer of private wealth manager Deltec, says all monetary and fiscal stimulus has a natural conclusion \u2013 \"it just ends\" \u2013 and traditional indicators of commodity prices\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4960,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/27\/what-happens-if-china-goes-pop-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":12862,"position":5},"title":"What happens if China goes pop? &#124;&#124; Macrobusiness","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Reproduced with kind permission of David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness. Yesterday, the falling terms of trade prompted a couple of readers to ask for a description of the process of a China bust for Australia (if it were to happen). As well, there was a grossly limited effort to do so\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Pop","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/pop-300x300.gif?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12862","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12862"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12862\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}