{"id":12839,"date":"2016-02-09T00:39:22","date_gmt":"2016-02-09T05:39:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12839"},"modified":"2016-02-09T00:39:22","modified_gmt":"2016-02-09T05:39:22","slug":"batten-down-the-hatches","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/09\/batten-down-the-hatches\/","title":{"rendered":"Batten down the hatches"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Batten down the hatches, the storm is here.<\/p>\n<p>Nymex WTI Light Crude futures (March 2016) are testing support at $30 per barrel. There is no indication that this is the bottom and breach of $30 would be likely to test $20 per barrel.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"445\" alt=\"Nymex WTI Light Crude March 2016 Futures\" title=\"Nymex WTI Light Crude March 2016 Futures\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=525%2C445&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 30 &#8211; ( 40 &#8211; 30 ) = 20<\/p>\n<p>Long-term interest rates are falling, with 10-year Treasury yields headed for another test of primary support at 1.5 percent. Breach of 1.7 percent would confirm. The flight from stocks is driving up Treasuries (and yields lower).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"10-year Treasury Yields\" title=\"10-year Treasury Yields\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-tnx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Flight to safety is (normally) synonymous with a strong Dollar, so the weakening Dollar Index is a surprise.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" title=\"Dollar Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>China must be selling off Dollar reserves to support the Yuan and restore confidence.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"USDCNY\" title=\"USDCNY\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-cny.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Too late, I&#8217;m afraid. That horse has bolted. Loss of confidence in the Yuan is driving demand for gold, with the spot metal rallying to $1200 per ounce. Resistance at the former support level makes retracement likely, but a trough that respects $1100 or narrow consolidation below $1200 would suggest reversal (to an up-trend). Breach of $1200 would offer a target of $1300*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" title=\"Spot Gold\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1200 + ( 1200 &#8211; 1100 ) = 1300<\/p>\n<p>After forming a lower peak at 18000, Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing primary support at 16000. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would offer a target of 14000*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" title=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-dow.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 16000 &#8211; ( 18000 &#8211; 16000 ) = 14000<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 displays a similar pattern, testing primary support at 1850, with a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero. Breach of support would offer a target of 1500*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1850 &#8211; ( 2150 &#8211; 1850 ) = 1550<\/p>\n<p>A monthly chart shows VIX rising for another test of 30. Oscillation between 20 and 30 flags elevated market risk.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"CBOE Volatility Index\" title=\"CBOE Volatility Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Australia&#8217;s ASX 200 retreated below primary support at 5000, signaling a primary down-trend. A 13-week Twiggs peak below zero already warns of a decline. Today&#8217;s close at 4832 confirms, offering a short-term target of 4600* and a long-term target of 4000*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"ASX 200 Index\" title=\"ASX 200 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-xjo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 4850 &#8211; ( 5050 &#8211; 4850 ) = 4650; 5000 &#8211; ( 6000 &#8211; 5000 ) = 4000<\/p>\n<p>Investors who plan to hold stocks through a possible down-turn should stop watching daily prices and listening to news reports. It will only weaken your resolve. I am comfortable with holding stocks with strong dividend streams, but wary of holding growth stocks as they normally suffer the biggest losses.<\/p>\n<p>For traders this is a time of dangerous opportunity. Either shorting sectors likely to be worst hit or waiting for opportunities to buy gold stocks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Northern Star (NST)\" title=\"Northern Star (NST)\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-nst.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\nOnly when the tide goes out do you discover who&#8217;s been swimming naked.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n~ Warren Buffett\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Batten down the hatches, the storm is here. Nymex WTI Light Crude futures (March 2016) are testing support at $30 per barrel. There is no indication that this is the bottom and breach of $30 would be likely to test $20 per barrel. * Target calculation: 30 &#8211; ( 40 &#8211; 30 ) = 20 &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/09\/batten-down-the-hatches\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Batten down the hatches&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41,6,9,57,34,35],"tags":[64,70,251,615,1073,1113,2500,2531,3014,3204,3574,3731],"class_list":["post-12839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-vix","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-asx-200","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-northern-star-nst","tag-nymex-wti-light-crude-march-2016-futures","tag-sp-500-index","tag-spot-gold","tag-usdcny","tag-yuan"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Batten down the hatches - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Batten down the hatches - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Batten down the hatches, the storm is here. Nymex WTI Light Crude futures (March 2016) are testing support at $30 per barrel. 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Nymex WTI Light Crude futures (March 2016) are testing support at $30 per barrel. There is no indication that this is the bottom and breach of $30 would be likely to test $20 per barrel. * Target calculation: 30 - ( 40\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Light Crude March 2016 Futures","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13803,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/09\/batten-down-the-hatches-2-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":12839,"position":1},"title":"Batten down the hatches","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 9, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Batten down the hatches, the storm is here. Nymex WTI Light Crude futures (March 2016) are testing support at $30 per barrel. There is no indication that this is the bottom and breach of $30 would be likely to test $20 per barrel. * Target calculation: 30 - ( 40\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Light Crude March 2016 Futures","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12898,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/01\/gold-rallies-as-crude-finds-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":12839,"position":2},"title":"Gold rallies as crude finds support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 1, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude finds support at $30\/barrel, iron ore rallies, the Dollar strengthens, long-term interest rates fall and all seems right with the world. But is it? Deflationary pressures in Europe are rising. China cut bank reserve requirements to stimulate lending. And long-term interest rates would be rising, not falling, if confidence\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Light Crude June 2016 Futures","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-03-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-03-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-03-01-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7927,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/19\/gold-falls-while-treasury-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":12839,"position":3},"title":"Gold falls while Treasury yields rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 19, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold is testing primary support at $1340\/ounce. Breach of support would signal another primary decline, while follow-through below $1320 would confirm. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a healthy primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of $1100*. * Target calculation: 1300 - ( 1500 -\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7748,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/16\/gold-and-commodities-fall-while-dollar-and-bond-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":12839,"position":4},"title":"Gold and commodities fall while Dollar and bond yields rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 16, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold broke the rising trendline and support at $1440\/$1450, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Target of $1200* for the decline would be confirmed by a breach of primary support. * Target calculation: 1350 - ( 1500 - 1350 ) = 1200 Treasury Yields Ten-year treasury yields broke\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10657,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/21\/dollar-surges-as-crude-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":12839,"position":5},"title":"Dollar surges as crude falls","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 21, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Dollar surges Treasury yields rally, but the trend is down Crude oil prices fall Gold uncertainty continues Interest Rates and the Dollar The Dollar Index followed through above resistance at 81.50, signaling a long-term advance to test the 2013 highs at 84.50. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dollar Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-21-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-21-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-21-dxy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12839"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12839\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}