recent estimates of a further $0.5 Trillion outflow in 2016<\/a> to be on the light side.<\/p>\n![\"USDCNY\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-04-cny.png?resize=525%2C363&ssl=1\" "\\"USDCNY\\"")
<\/p>\n
China is caught in a cleft stick: either deplete foreign reserves to support the Yuan, or allow the Yuan to weaken which would fuel further selling and risk a downward spiral. Regulations to restrict capital outflows may ease pressure but are unlikely to stem the flow.<\/p>\n
Chinese sales of Dollar reserves have slowed appreciation of the Dollar Index. Cessation of support for the Yuan would cause breakout above 100 and an advance to at least 107*.<\/p>\n
![\"Dollar](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-04-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&ssl=1\" "\\"Dollar")
<\/p>\n
* Target calculation: 100 + ( 100 – 93 ) = 107<\/p>\n
Gold<\/h2>\n
Gold has also benefited from the flight to safety, rallying to $1150\/ounce. The rally may well test $1200 but resistance is expected to hold. Respect would suggest a decline to $1000\/ounce*; confirmed if support at $1050 is broken. Continued oscillation of 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero flags a strong primary down-trend.<\/p>\n
![\"Spot](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-04-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&ssl=1\" "\\"Spot")
<\/p>\n
* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1200 – 1100 ) = 1000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
We are witnessing a flight to safety as money flows out of stocks and into bonds, driving 10-year Treasury yields as low as 1.88 percent. Breach of support at 2.0 percent suggests that another test of primary support at 1.5 percent lies ahead. What makes this even more significant is that it occurred while China … <\/p>\n
Continue reading “Gold rallies but how long?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,6,9,13,34,35],"tags":[70,1073,3204,3574,3731],"class_list":["post-12830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-dollar-index","tag-spot-gold","tag-usdcny","tag-yuan"],"yoast_head":"\nGold rallies but how long? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold rallies but how long? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We are witnessing a flight to safety as money flows out of stocks and into bonds, driving 10-year Treasury yields as low as 1.88 percent. Breach of support at 2.0 percent suggests that another test of primary support at 1.5 percent lies ahead. 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Breach would signal a test of the all-time (July 2012) low of 1.40 percent. Gold rallied in response, breaking initial resistance at $1250\/ounce to signal a test of $1300. The Chinese appear to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-year Treasury yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-09-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-09-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-09-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13530,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/06\/gold-surges-as-the-pound-and-yuan-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":12830,"position":1},"title":"Gold surges as the Pound and Yuan fall","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 6, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The Yuan is sliding against the Dollar, with USDCNY breaking through resistance at 6.60. Expect further capital flight, both from residents and offshore investors. Borrowers will also seek to repay Dollar-denominated loans and replace them with facilities in the local currency, adding further pressure on the Yuan. The PBOC has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12733,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/15\/12733\/","url_meta":{"origin":12830,"position":2},"title":"Gold unlikely to benefit as China loosens Dollar peg","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 15, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term interest rates remain soft despite the anticipated Fed rate hike. 10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.0 percent and breakout above 2.50 percent would indicate a test of primary resistance at 3.00 percent. Two factors have been driving US interest rates lower over the last decade: Fed monetary policy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-15-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-15-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-15-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14406,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/28\/gold-further-weakness-likely\/","url_meta":{"origin":12830,"position":3},"title":"Gold: Further weakness likely","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 28, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"US Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year yield breaking through 1.80 percent to signal a test of 2.0 percent. Further rises are likely on the back of stronger GDP figures for the last quarter. The Chinese Yuan continues to depreciate against the Dollar in anticipation of another rate rise\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12701,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/09\/gold-muted-as-dollar-slides\/","url_meta":{"origin":12830,"position":4},"title":"Gold muted as Dollar slides","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 9, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"I would have expected a gold rally in response to the falling Dollar but the response is so far muted. The Euro leapt 3.08% last Thursday, December 3rd, in response to a weaker-than-expected stimulus package from the European Central Bank. The Dollar Index, with a 57.6% weighting against the Euro,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"EURUSD","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-09-eurusd.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-09-eurusd.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-09-eurusd.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13512,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/28\/gold-rises-as-the-yuan-and-interest-rates-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":12830,"position":5},"title":"Gold rises as the Yuan and interest rates fall","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 28, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"China seems to have given up on its policy of supporting the Yuan against the Dollar, with USDCNY breaking through resistance at 6.60. Depleting foreign reserves to support the Dollar-peg was always going to be a tough call for the PBOC. But the alternative of increased capital flight and rising\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"USDCNY","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-28-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-28-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-28-cny.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12830\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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