{"id":12826,"date":"2016-01-25T23:23:44","date_gmt":"2016-01-26T04:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12826"},"modified":"2016-01-25T23:23:44","modified_gmt":"2016-01-26T04:23:44","slug":"chinas-commodity-demand-has-barely-begun-its-fall-macrobusiness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/01\/25\/chinas-commodity-demand-has-barely-begun-its-fall-macrobusiness\/","title":{"rendered":"China&#8217;s commodity demand has barely begun its fall &#8211; MacroBusiness"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>These four charts, posted from <a href=\"http:\/\/ftalphaville.ft.com\/2016\/01\/22\/2150865\/china-and-traditional-industrialisation-led-development-the-world-was-not-enough\/\" target=\"_blank\">Investing in Chinese Stocks<\/a> by David Llewellyn-Smith, illustrate China&#8217;s failure to rebalance their economy and the challenge that economies reliant on Chinese real estate and infrastructure investment, like Australia, face.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;.China now accounts for fully a third of global industrial production (up from only 5% as recently as the 1990s)\u2013see Exhibit 5.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2016\/01\/chinas-commodity-demand-has-barely-begun-its-fall\/\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/screen-shot-2016-01-21-at-11-39-51-pm.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>When you are that big, it becomes increasingly difficult to grow exports and production at a pace materially faster than growth in final global demand, which has averaged about 3% for the past few decades.In addition, since the Great Recession, the relationship between global trade and output (GDP or IP) seems to have changed, with trade no longer growing faster than the overall global economy (Exhibit 6).<\/p>\n<p>For those economies where growth models have tended to be focused on external support like China, this change has introduced substantial new challenges as they try to overhaul their growth models.These structural factors, along with the fact that external demand has remained mediocre since the crisis, has meant that China is attempting to \u201crebalance\u201d its economy against a backdrop of dramatically weaker export growth, as evidenced in Exhibit 7.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2016\/01\/chinas-commodity-demand-has-barely-begun-its-fall\/\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/screen-shot-2016-01-22-at-12-21-27-am.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Finally, after a period of \u201crebalancing\u201d away from investment toward consumption in the mid-2000s, the Great Recession was a tremendous setback to the ultimate objective of more balanced growth. Indeed, the main policy mechanism for fighting the slowdown in 2008 and 2009 was a massive increase in investment, which we now know occurred at just the time that the export-driven growth model was breaking down. Unfortunately, despite the substantial growth slowdown of recent years, there is little evidence that investment as a share of GDP has fallen substantially from the post-stimulus highs. Indeed, at least through to 2014\u2013the latest comparable data available\u2013all that has happened is that the investment share has stopped going up (Exhibit 8).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2016\/01\/chinas-commodity-demand-has-barely-begun-its-fall\/\">China&#8217;s commodity demand has barely begun its fall &#8211; MacroBusiness<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>These four charts, posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks by David Llewellyn-Smith, illustrate China&#8217;s failure to rebalance their economy and the challenge that economies reliant on Chinese real estate and infrastructure investment, like Australia, face. &#8230;.China now accounts for fully a third of global industrial production (up from only 5% as recently as the 1990s)\u2013see &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/01\/25\/chinas-commodity-demand-has-barely-begun-its-fall-macrobusiness\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;China&#8217;s commodity demand has barely begun its fall &#8211; MacroBusiness&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>China&#039;s commodity demand has barely begun its fall - MacroBusiness - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China&#039;s commodity demand has barely begun its fall - MacroBusiness - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"These four charts, posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks by David Llewellyn-Smith, illustrate China&#8217;s failure to rebalance their economy and the challenge that economies reliant on Chinese real estate and infrastructure investment, like Australia, face. &#8230;.China now accounts for fully a third of global industrial production (up from only 5% as recently as the 1990s)\u2013see &hellip; 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China\u2019s largest steelmaker warns of a \u201charsh winter\u201d ahead for the industry: BEIJING \u2013 Chinese steelmakers slashed output in July as woeful demand forced steep cuts on an industry contending with a collapse in margins. Steel\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Base Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Base Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/base-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Iron Ore","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-15-fe.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-15-fe.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-15-fe.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":23238,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/15\/chinese-demand-lifts-iron-ore\/","url_meta":{"origin":12826,"position":1},"title":"Chinese demand lifts iron ore","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"China\u2019s top steel mills, including China Baowu Steel Group, and the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) met on Thursday to investigate soaring iron ore prices. They held a video discussion with BHP who confirmed their production remained strong, with no major weather interruptions to operations. Atilla Widnell, managing director\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25663,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/08\/chinas-bond-market-tremors\/","url_meta":{"origin":12826,"position":2},"title":"China&#8217;s bond market tremors","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 8, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"China's credit contraction warns of an economic slowdown. But the Copper\/Gold ratio is still climbing; the contraction will only be confirmed when this reverses. From Julien Bittel on Twitter: China's bond market faces a sell-off as yields rise. From Bloomberg: A much-anticipated selloff in China\u2019s bond market, the world\u2019s second\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63383,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/16\/china-threatens-a-global-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":12826,"position":3},"title":"China threatens a global recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 16, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Falling crude oil prices warn of a global economic contraction. Shrinking industrial output in China is a significant contributor. China's growing reliance on exports, as domestic demand slows, makes it vulnerable to increased trade barriers. Declining demand for crude oil warns that the global economy is slowing. Brent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13108,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/06\/the-future-of-chinese-steel-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":12826,"position":4},"title":"The future of Chinese steel | MacroBusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 6, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Andrew Batson\u2019s interview with Cai Rang, chairman of the China Iron & Steel Research Institute Group: China\u2019s current steel production capacity is 1.2 billion tons, but domestic demand cannot completely absorb this capacity. In 2015 China exported about 100 million tons of steel products; this was a relief for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25738,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/12\/iron-ore-bull-bear-outlooks\/","url_meta":{"origin":12826,"position":5},"title":"Iron ore: Bull &#038; bear outlooks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore prices are soaring but there are widely differing views about how long this will last. From Investing.com: Ark Invest\u2019s Cathie Wood, whose ARK Innovation ETF was the top-performing U.S. equity fund last year.....said in a webinar Tuesday that she sees spiking commodity prices as a sign that businesses\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12826","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12826"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12826\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}