{"id":12762,"date":"2015-12-26T15:53:47","date_gmt":"2015-12-26T20:53:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12762"},"modified":"2015-12-26T15:53:47","modified_gmt":"2015-12-26T20:53:47","slug":"how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/","title":{"rendered":"How long will the oil-price shock last?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From Marek Dabrowski at Bruegel:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;&#8230;the depth of the oil-price shock looks comparable with that of the second half of 2008 and early 2009. However, while the 2008-2009 shock resulted from a temporary liquidity crisis caused by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the current shock seems to be underpinned by more fundamental demand- and supply-side factors.<\/p>\n<p>On the demand side, there are the observed slowdowns of emerging-market economies, effects of energy-saving policies in developed and developing countries, and the gradual tightening of US monetary policy, which reduced the appetite for speculative purchases of oil and other commodities. In speaking about the demand side, we mean massive investment in new oil-production capacities, including shale oil, in the last two decades (Dale, 2015), the declining market power of the OPEC cartel and development of alternative energy sources.<\/p>\n<p>Consequently, the lower level of oil prices could reflect a new market equilibrium and could last longer than the short-term price declines of 1998-1999 and 2008-2009. The current situation is more reminiscent of the dramatic oil price adjustment observed in the mid-1980s, after which low prices dominated for more than a decade. If this scenario is repeated now, all net oil exporters will face inevitable challenges of both macro- and microeconomic adjustment in the long term.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bruegel.org\/2015\/11\/the-impact-of-the-oil-price-shock-on-net-oil-exporters\/?utm_content=buffera3ead&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer+(bruegel)\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/md_241115_1.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;..Overall, countries that conducted prudent macroeconomic policies and built-up large fiscal buffers in boom years (Gulf countries, Norway, Brunei Darussalam) have had more room to manoeuvre in choosing the right policy response to the price shock, compared to those that had smaller or no reserves. In particular, they could employ countercyclical fiscal policy to mitigate the effect of lower prices (see above).\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I am sure most Australians can relate to this conclusion.<\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/bruegel.org\/2015\/11\/the-impact-of-the-oil-price-shock-on-net-oil-exporters\/\">The impact of the oil-price shock on net oil exporters | Bruegel<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Marek Dabrowski at Bruegel: &#8230;&#8230;the depth of the oil-price shock looks comparable with that of the second half of 2008 and early 2009. However, while the 2008-2009 shock resulted from a temporary liquidity crisis caused by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the current shock seems to be underpinned by more fundamental demand- and supply-side factors. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;How long will the oil-price shock last?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How long will the oil-price shock last? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How long will the oil-price shock last? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Marek Dabrowski at Bruegel: &#8230;&#8230;the depth of the oil-price shock looks comparable with that of the second half of 2008 and early 2009. However, while the 2008-2009 shock resulted from a temporary liquidity crisis caused by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the current shock seems to be underpinned by more fundamental demand- and supply-side factors. &hellip; Continue reading &quot;How long will the oil-price shock last?&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-12-26T20:53:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/md_241115_1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"How long will the oil-price shock last?\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-12-26T20:53:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/\"},\"wordCount\":299,\"commentCount\":5,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/md_241115_1.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/\",\"name\":\"How long will the oil-price shock last? - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/md_241115_1.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-12-26T20:53:47+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/md_241115_1.png?fit=1524%2C996&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/md_241115_1.png?fit=1524%2C996&ssl=1\",\"width\":1524,\"height\":996},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/26\/how-long-will-the-oil-price-shock-last\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"How long will the oil-price shock last?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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The only larger producer is the U.S. at 11.6 mmb\/d. Europe is most vulnerable as it buys about 25% (2.5 mmb\/d) of its oil from Russia. From Art Berman:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Oil Shocks","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-08-oil-shocks.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3878,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/03\/19\/economonitor-nouriel-roubinis-global-economonitor-scary-oil\/","url_meta":{"origin":12762,"position":1},"title":"Nouriel Roubini&#039;s Global EconoMonitor \u00bb Scary Oil","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 19, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Nouriel Roubini: The last three global recessions (prior to 2008) were each caused by a geopolitical shock in the Middle East that led to a sharp spike in oil prices. The 1973 Yom Kippur War between Israel and the Arab states led to global stagflation (recession and inflation) in 1974-1975.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":31434,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/10\/job-openings-fuel-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":12762,"position":2},"title":"Job openings fuel inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 10, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Job openings decreased slightly in January, to 11.26 million from 11.44 in December, leaving a worker shortage of at least 5 million when compared to unemployment at just 6.27 million. Hourly wage rate growth -- 6.65% year-on-year in February -- is likely to remain high until the gap between job\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Job Openings, Unemployment & Hourly Wage Rates","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-10-jolts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-10-jolts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-10-jolts.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-10-jolts.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11201,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/27\/alleged-oil-shock-isnt-all-that-shocking\/","url_meta":{"origin":12762,"position":3},"title":"Alleged Oil Shock Isn&#8217;t All That Shocking","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 27, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Keith Johnson discusses the impact of crude oil at $80 per barrel: ....Cheaper oil prices means lower prices at the pump and for everything that is ever shipped, from food to flip-flops. The recent fall equates to a massive, unplanned stimulus package for the world's shoppers. Citigroup, for instance, figures\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48842,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/21\/will-the-fed-cut-rates-in-response-to-rising-crude-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":12762,"position":4},"title":"Will the Fed cut rates in response to rising crude prices?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The two most important prices in the global economy are crude oil and the 10-year Treasury yield. A sharp spike in either normally causes a recession. Households curb spending as energy costs or borrowing costs take a large bite out of disposable income, leading to falling demand and a recession.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"History of Real Crude Prices: WTI Light Crude\/CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13331,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/16\/goldman-cuts-2017-oil-price-forecast-due-to-slower-market-rebalancing-zero-hedge\/","url_meta":{"origin":12762,"position":5},"title":"Goldman Cuts 2017 Oil Price Forecast Due To Slower Market Rebalancing | Zero Hedge","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 16, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Goldman Sachs has cut its long-term crude oil forecasts: The inflection phase of the oil market continues to deliver its share of surprises, with low prices driving disruptions in Nigeria, higher output in Iran and better demand. With each of these shifts significant in magnitude, the oil market has gone\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12762","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12762"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12762\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}