{"id":12733,"date":"2015-12-15T19:48:28","date_gmt":"2015-12-16T00:48:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12733"},"modified":"2015-12-15T19:48:28","modified_gmt":"2015-12-16T00:48:28","slug":"12733","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/15\/12733\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold unlikely to benefit as China loosens Dollar peg"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Long-term interest rates remain soft despite the anticipated Fed rate hike. 10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.0 percent and breakout above 2.50 percent would indicate a test of primary resistance at 3.00 percent.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" title=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-15-tnx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Two factors have been driving US interest rates lower over the last decade: Fed monetary policy and PBOC purchases of US Treasuries. China built up $4 trillion of foreign reserves, a substantial amount in US Treasuries, to suppress appreciation of the Yuan against the Dollar and maintain a trade advantage.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"China Foreign Reserves\" title=\"China Foreign Reserves\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-08-china-reserves.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s foreign reserves declined over the last year as the country struggled to maintain its peg against the strengthening Dollar, with large capital outflows. The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/12\/12\/business\/international\/china-to-track-renminbi-based-on-basket-of-currencies.html\" target=\"_blank\">shift from a strict peg to the Dollar to a basket of currencies<\/a> may take immediate pressure off the PBOC. But a weakening Yuan is likely to encourage further capital outflows. And borrowers with USD-denominated loans are likely to suffer losses, increasing capital outflows through hedging or early repayment. So relief may be temporary.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"USDCNY\" title=\"USDCNY\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-15-usdcny.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Retreat of the greenback is unlikely to continue now that the PBOC has announced it will loosen its peg against the Dollar. Dollar Index breakout above 100 and recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above its descending trendline would both signal a fresh advance. Target for the advance is 107*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" title=\"Dollar Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-15-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 100 + ( 100 &#8211; 93 ) = 107<\/p>\n<h2>Gold<\/h2>\n<p>Gold&#8217;s down-trend continues. Breach of (short-term) support at $1050 per ounce would confirm a test of (long-term) support at $1000\/ounce*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero indicate a strong primary down-trend. A stronger Dollar is likely to further weaken demand for gold.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" title=\"Spot Gold\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-15-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1100 &#8211; ( 1200 &#8211; 1100 ) = 1000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Long-term interest rates remain soft despite the anticipated Fed rate hike. 10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.0 percent and breakout above 2.50 percent would indicate a test of primary resistance at 3.00 percent. Two factors have been driving US interest rates lower over the last decade: Fed monetary policy and PBOC purchases of US &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/15\/12733\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Gold unlikely to benefit as China loosens Dollar peg&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,9,35],"tags":[70,663,1073,1441,3204,3574],"class_list":["post-12733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-china","tag-dollar-index","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-spot-gold","tag-usdcny"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold unlikely to benefit as China loosens Dollar peg - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold unlikely to benefit as China loosens Dollar peg - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Long-term interest rates remain soft despite the anticipated Fed rate hike. 10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.0 percent and breakout above 2.50 percent would indicate a test of primary resistance at 3.00 percent. 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The April minutes reveal that policy makers see a June interest-rate hike as appropriate if labor markets and economic growth continue to strengthen. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points, suggesting\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-year Treasury yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-19-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-19-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-19-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12701,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/09\/gold-muted-as-dollar-slides\/","url_meta":{"origin":12733,"position":1},"title":"Gold muted as Dollar slides","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 9, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"I would have expected a gold rally in response to the falling Dollar but the response is so far muted. The Euro leapt 3.08% last Thursday, December 3rd, in response to a weaker-than-expected stimulus package from the European Central Bank. The Dollar Index, with a 57.6% weighting against the Euro,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"EURUSD","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-09-eurusd.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-09-eurusd.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-09-eurusd.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14859,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/24\/gold-breaks-through-1250\/","url_meta":{"origin":12733,"position":2},"title":"Gold breaks through $1250","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 24, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury Yields are testing support at 2.30%. Expect this to hold. Breach of the rising trendline would warn of a correction but this seems unlikely with the Fed intent on normalizing interest rates. Breakout above 2.50% would offer a target of 3.0%. The Dollar Index rally remains muted since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13460,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/16\/gold-surges-on-brexit-fears\/","url_meta":{"origin":12733,"position":3},"title":"Gold surges on BREXIT fears","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 16, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term interest rates continue their decline, with 10-year Treasury yields breaking support at 1.65 percent. Breach signals a test of the all-time (July 2012) low of 1.40 percent. Gold broke resistance at $1300\/ounce on fears of a BREXIT vote on June 23rd and expectations that the Fed will need to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-year Treasury yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-16-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13512,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/28\/gold-rises-as-the-yuan-and-interest-rates-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":12733,"position":4},"title":"Gold rises as the Yuan and interest rates fall","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 28, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"China seems to have given up on its policy of supporting the Yuan against the Dollar, with USDCNY breaking through resistance at 6.60. Depleting foreign reserves to support the Dollar-peg was always going to be a tough call for the PBOC. But the alternative of increased capital flight and rising\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"USDCNY","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-28-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-28-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-28-cny.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14933,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/10\/gold-bears-grow-as-fed-hints-at-rate-hike\/","url_meta":{"origin":12733,"position":5},"title":"Gold bears grow as Fed hints at rate hike","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 10, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed is expected to hike interest rates next week. 10-year Treasury yields broke resistance at 2.5 percent, signaling an advance to the 2013\/2014 high of 3.0 percent. Breakout above 3.0 percent is still a way off but would complete a large double bottom signaling the end of the 30-year\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12733","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12733"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12733\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}