{"id":12682,"date":"2015-12-06T23:00:30","date_gmt":"2015-12-07T04:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12682"},"modified":"2015-12-06T23:00:30","modified_gmt":"2015-12-07T04:00:30","slug":"the-great-asx-sclerosis-gerard-minack","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/06\/the-great-asx-sclerosis-gerard-minack\/","title":{"rendered":"The great ASX sclerosis | Gerard Minack"},"content":{"rendered":"

Excellent summary by Gerard Minack of headwinds facing the ASX:<\/p>\n

Excluding miners, the listed sector enjoyed 15%-plus annual sales growth last cycle; now nominal sales growth is less than one-third that pace….<\/p>\n

Structurally lower domestic sales, combined with the stress in the resource sector \u2013 which, in my view, is not at its lows \u2013 points to further under-performance of Australia equities versus other developed markets…. <\/p>\n

\"Non-Mining<\/p>\n

There are reasons to be positive about the medium term outlook for Australia. But the problem for investors is that increasingly the equity market does not reflect the economy. Australia\u2019s listed market has a much larger exposure to financials and materials (which includes miners) than other markets \u2013 and these sectors\u2019 share of market capitalisation are much larger than their share of the domestic economy. Put simply, Australia\u2019s equity market is overweight two sectors at the end of their super-cycles; it is overweight the past and underweight the future.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Not sure I would go so far as to exclude banks and mining from Australia’s future. Collapse of the commodity market is cyclical — admittedly the China slow-down is likely to be a long cycle — rather than a secular trend. Bank growth is also likely to slow, both from sluggish housing and job growth (from mining). Again this is cyclical rather than structural.<\/p>\n

Source: Special Report: Gerard Minack on the great ASX sclerosis – MacroBusiness<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Excellent summary by Gerard Minack of headwinds facing the ASX: Excluding miners, the listed sector enjoyed 15%-plus annual sales growth last cycle; now nominal sales growth is less than one-third that pace…. Structurally lower domestic sales, combined with the stress in the resource sector \u2013 which, in my view, is not at its lows \u2013 … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The great ASX sclerosis | Gerard Minack”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nThe great ASX sclerosis | Gerard Minack - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The great ASX sclerosis | Gerard Minack - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Excellent summary by Gerard Minack of headwinds facing the ASX: Excluding miners, the listed sector enjoyed 15%-plus annual sales growth last cycle; now nominal sales growth is less than one-third that pace…. 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Respect remains likely and would indicate another test of primary support at 7300. Rising banks lifted the ASX 200. Follow-through above 6250 signals another primary advance, with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750. This leaves me\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7656,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/02\/australia-why-the-stock-market-has-been-bulletproof-to-bad-economic-news-business-insider\/","url_meta":{"origin":12682,"position":1},"title":"Australia: Why The Stock Market Has Been Bulletproof To Bad Economic News | Business Insider","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 2, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Sam Ro quotes Gerard Minack in Business Insider: To summarize: 1) we\u2019ve seen this before, 2) we think the slowdown is temporary, 3) we think significant weakness will trigger stimulus, and 4) we think fiscal austerity is now less likely. Still, Minack is pretty sure this resilience can\u2019t hold for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61935,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/10\/australia-cautiously-pessimistic\/","url_meta":{"origin":12682,"position":2},"title":"Australia: “cautiously pessimistic”","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 10, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The ASX 200 threatens a new high But consumer sentiment is low Business conditions are weak Commodity exports are slowing, and so is economic growth ASX 200 earnings are likely to follow The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 8600. Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but the earnings\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14958,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/14\/australia-dont-expect-a-repeat-of-the-last-boom\/","url_meta":{"origin":12682,"position":3},"title":"Australia: Don’t expect a repeat of the last boom","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 14, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Gerard Minack, courtesy of Macrobusiness, explains why the recent rise in commodity prices will not result in a repeat of the last boom. There are two main ways the last commodity boom boosted domestic activity. Neither seems likely to be repeated now. The first is that the mining sector lifted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18628,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/09\/asx-dead-cat-bounce\/","url_meta":{"origin":12682,"position":4},"title":"ASX: Dead cat bounce","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 9, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 found support at 6450\/6500 followed by a hesitant rally: a candle with a long tail followed by a short-bodied evening star. This resembles a typical dead cat bounce. Breach of 6450 is likely and would warn of a decline to test support at 6000. Gerard Minack in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17863,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/11\/why-the-rba-shouldnt-cut-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":12682,"position":5},"title":"Why the RBA shouldn’t cut interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 11, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"There are growing cries in local media for the RBA to cut interest rates in order to avoid a recession. House prices are falling and shrinking finance commitments point to further price falls. Declining housing values are likely to lead to a negative wealth effect, with falling consumption as household\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12682"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12682\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}