{"id":12609,"date":"2015-11-26T00:06:09","date_gmt":"2015-11-26T05:06:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12609"},"modified":"2015-11-26T00:06:09","modified_gmt":"2015-11-26T05:06:09","slug":"global-fallout-from-chinas-industrial-slowdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/26\/global-fallout-from-chinas-industrial-slowdown\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Fallout from China\u2019s Industrial Slowdown"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From Mark Spiegel at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The recent slowdown in China\u2019s economic growth has caused a great deal of concern, particularly among global trade partners that export to China. On November 3, China\u2019s President Xi Jinping announced that expected real GDP growth over the next five years would be no lower than 6.5%, which is one-half percentage point lower than the previous estimate. The industrial sector has been particularly weak as it has expanded by only 0.2% over the past year. In addition, imports to China continue to fall dramatically, as shown in Figure 1. Import values in October 2015 were almost 19% lower than they were in October of the previous year. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/publications\/economic-letter\/2015\/november\/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown\/?utm_source=mailchimp&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter-2015-11-23\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/2015-35-1.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>However, a number of analysts (for example, Lardy 2015) have argued that concern about the slowdown in the Chinese economy&#8211;and the associated reduction in Chinese imports&#8211;is overblown. Instead, they point to the resilience in the country\u2019s service sector. This sector has indeed been a source of relative strength, with reported growth of 11.9% over the past four quarters. <\/p>\n<p>In this <em>Economic Letter<\/em>, I show that the strength of China\u2019s service sector is not likely to provide much support for gross exports from the rest of the world over the short term. The steep recent decline in China\u2019s imports is consistent with the country\u2019s growth pattern across different sectors. There has been a strong positive relationship between slower growth in gross imports and slower growth in industrial output over the past 15 years. However, imports and service outputs do not show a significant relationship. These results hold both for imports from non-commodity exporting advanced economies and for advanced and emerging market economies that export commodities to China. Therefore, from the rest of the world\u2019s point of view, an increase in China\u2019s service sector does not offset a similar magnitude decline in its industrial sector&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/publications\/economic-letter\/2015\/november\/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown\/\">Economic Research | Global Fallout from China\u2019s Industrial Slowdown<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Mark Spiegel at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: The recent slowdown in China\u2019s economic growth has caused a great deal of concern, particularly among global trade partners that export to China. On November 3, China\u2019s President Xi Jinping announced that expected real GDP growth over the next five years would be no &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/26\/global-fallout-from-chinas-industrial-slowdown\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Global Fallout from China\u2019s Industrial Slowdown&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global Fallout from China\u2019s Industrial Slowdown - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Fallout from China\u2019s Industrial Slowdown - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Mark Spiegel at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: The recent slowdown in China\u2019s economic growth has caused a great deal of concern, particularly among global trade partners that export to China. 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A Trend Index peak close to zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support would offer a target of 2400 but the state could intervene to support stock prices. Ratings agency Moody's on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Shanghai Composite Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-07-ssec.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-07-ssec.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-07-ssec.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12926,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/08\/imf-issues-warning-on-global-growth-as-china-exports-plunge-ft-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":12609,"position":2},"title":"IMF issues warning on global growth as China exports plunge | FT.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 8, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From FT.com: In dollar terms China\u2019s exports fell 25.4 per cent in February from a year earlier, the worst one-month decline since early 2009 and down from an 11.2 per cent drop in January. Imports fell 13.8 per cent, trimming losses after an 18.8 per cent fall in January. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17979,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/15\/china-slowdown\/","url_meta":{"origin":12609,"position":3},"title":"China slowdown","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 15, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Consumer durable sales are falling sharply: Offline sales value across all three categories declined by double digits. Air-conditioner sales slid 19% from a year earlier after dropping 18% in December. Refrigerator and washing machine sales fell 15% and 13%, moderating from declines of 23% and 21% in December. \u2014 Screaming\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10474,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/31\/china-the-best-way-to-manipulate-gdp-is-to-lower-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":12609,"position":4},"title":"China: The best way to manipulate GDP is to lower inflation","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 31, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"From George Dorgan: The best way to push real GDP upwards is, hence, to understate inflation via the GDP deflator. Lombard Street Research assumes that Chinese officials followed that approach: Via Wall Street Journal Blogs Lombard Street Research, a London economic research firm that takes a bearish view on China,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snbchf.snbchfcom.netdna-cdn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/AI-CG267_GDP_CR_G_20140123223231.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snbchf.snbchfcom.netdna-cdn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/AI-CG267_GDP_CR_G_20140123223231.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snbchf.snbchfcom.netdna-cdn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/AI-CG267_GDP_CR_G_20140123223231.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2572,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/07\/heard-on-the-street-australias-juggling-act-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":12609,"position":5},"title":"Heard on the Street: Australia&#8217;s Juggling Act &#8211; WSJ.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 7, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Economists expect 2012 will see a slowdown in the economy of China, Australia's biggest trading partner. China's gross domestic product growth could slip to around 8% from more than 9% this year, which will lead to lower demand for commodities. Already, the Reserve Bank of Australia's index of commodity prices\u2014a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12609","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12609"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12609\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12609"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12609"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12609"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}