{"id":1254,"date":"2015-11-05T07:46:16","date_gmt":"2015-11-05T07:46:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1254"},"modified":"2015-11-05T07:46:16","modified_gmt":"2015-11-05T07:46:16","slug":"no-fireworks-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/05\/no-fireworks-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"No fireworks yet"},"content":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at the previous high of 2130. Down-turn on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of short-term selling pressure; a fall below zero would indicate strong resistance. Reversal below 2050 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of primary support at 1870.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1870 ) = 2130<\/p>\n

A declining CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates market risk is easing.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

NYSE short sales<\/a> remain subdued.<\/p>\n

\"NYSE<\/p>\n

Nasdaq 100 broke resistance at 4700 and is approaching its previous (March 2000) high of 4816. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow is rising steeply but expect resistance at 4800. Breakout would be a positive sign for the large cap S&P 500 and Dow Industrial indices.<\/p>\n

\"Nasdaq<\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX 60 is far more hesitant, testing stubborn resistance at 825. Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but follow-through below 800 would be bearish and failure of 775 would warn of another decline. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above -5% would offer some hope, but the index remains tentative.<\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 775 – ( 825 – 775 ) = 725<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

Germany’s DAX is consolidating below resistance at 11000; a bullish sign. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 11000 and the descending trendline would suggest another test of the previous high at 12400.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

The Footsie is similarly testing resistance at 6500. Breakout would suggest another test of the previous high at 7100. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 6250 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 6000.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

The Shanghai Composite Index is testing resistance at 3500. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout would signal an advance to 4000, but I remain wary because of government intervention.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing resistance at 19000. Breakout would signal another test of 21000. Respect is less likely, but reversal below 18500 would warn of another test of primary support at 17000.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 19000 + ( 19000 – 17000 ) = 21000<\/p>\n

India’s Sensex is testing the former primary support level at 26500 after encountering resistance at 27500. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate long-term buying pressure. Respect of 26500 is likely and would indicate continuation of the rally (to 28500). Failure of support would warn of a primary decline.<\/p>\n

\"SENSEX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 25000 – ( 27500 – 25000 ) = 22500<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

The ASX 200 is testing medium-term support at 5150. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Breach of 5150 is likely and would warn of another test of primary support at 5000. Recovery above 5400 is unlikely at this stage, but would suggest an advance to 6000.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 4600<\/p>\n

\n
\nMore….
\n<\/a>
\n<\/h2>\n

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\n

\nWe aren’t born with the ability to make good decisions; we learn it.\n<\/p>\n

~ Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at the previous high of 2130. Down-turn on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of short-term selling pressure; a fall below zero would indicate strong resistance. Reversal below 2050 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of primary support at 1870. * Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1870 … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “No fireworks yet”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,507,947,1481,2401,2478,2535,3010,3100,3503],"class_list":["post-1254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-bse-sensex","tag-dax","tag-ftse-100","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-nikkei-225","tag-nyse-short-sales","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-tsx-60"],"yoast_head":"\nNo fireworks yet - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No fireworks yet - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The S&P 500 is testing resistance at the previous high of 2130. Down-turn on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of short-term selling pressure; a fall below zero would indicate strong resistance. 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Failure would warn of another test of support at 1870, while respect would indicate continuation of the bear rally to test resistance at the high of 2130. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates (medium-term) buying\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-14-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13798,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/12\/watch-out-for-the-caboose\/","url_meta":{"origin":1254,"position":1},"title":"Watch out for the caboose","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 12, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets remain tentative and we continue to limit our exposure to roughly 50% of portfolio value. The danger is that you avoid the steam engine but get hit by the caboose when you step back on the tracks. It is safer to wait until the anxiety subsides. North America The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13788,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/22\/how-we-got-here\/","url_meta":{"origin":1254,"position":2},"title":"How we got here","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 22, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"If we don't learn from the mistakes of the past we will be destined to repeat them (George Santayana). Looking back over the last three decades gives an inkling as to what went wrong and to the level of economic mismanagement. International trade is a zero sum game: what one\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Current Accounts China & Japan","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-22-currentaccount-china-japan.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-22-currentaccount-china-japan.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-22-currentaccount-china-japan.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13784,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/09\/bear-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":1254,"position":3},"title":"Bear Rally","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 9, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"North America Construction activity continues to advance. The graph below shows Total US Construction Spending adjusted for inflation (Core CPI). Spending is substantially below the 2004 to 2007 property bubble but equates to the earlier Dotcom era. The steep rise suggests that rate increases will be necessary to prevent another\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Construction Spending adjusted by Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-08-construction.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-08-construction.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-08-construction.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12469,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter\/","url_meta":{"origin":1254,"position":4},"title":"Iron ore headed for the smelter","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 29, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Bloomberg News quotes Zhu Jimin, deputy head of the China Iron & Steel Association, representing major steel producers, at their quarterly briefing on Wednesday: \"Production cuts are slower than the contraction in demand, therefore oversupply is worsening.\" \"China's steel demand evaporated at unprecedented speed as the nation's economic growth slowed,\"\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"RBA: Bulk Commodity Prices","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-29-commodity-bulk-prices.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":13790,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":1254,"position":5},"title":"Iron ore headed for the smelter","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 29, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Bloomberg News quotes Zhu Jimin, deputy head of the China Iron & Steel Association, representing major steel producers, at their quarterly briefing on Wednesday: \"Production cuts are slower than the contraction in demand, therefore oversupply is worsening.\" \"China's steel demand evaporated at unprecedented speed as the nation's economic growth slowed,\"\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"RBA: Bulk Commodity Prices","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-29-commodity-bulk-prices.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1254"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1254\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}