{"id":12474,"date":"2015-10-29T20:56:22","date_gmt":"2015-10-30T00:56:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12474"},"modified":"2015-10-29T20:56:22","modified_gmt":"2015-10-30T00:56:22","slug":"us-robust-underlying-gdp-growth-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/us-robust-underlying-gdp-growth-trend\/","title":{"rendered":"US: Robust underlying GDP growth trend"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in Q3, according to advance estimate https:\/\/t.co\/vWMdoOL9TA<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/PFNZ7lXa8D<\/a><\/p>\n

— St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed) October 29, 2015<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

From Elliot Clarke at Westpac<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In assessing the strength and persistence of US growth, it is important to recognise the impact that inventories and net exports continue to have on headline results. Inventories added significantly to growth through the first half of 2015 on rapid inventory accrual; but a more modest pace of stocking in Q3 resulted in a 1.4ppt subtraction from quarterly GDP growth. Similarly, while net exports reduced the annualised Q1 headline outcome by 1.9ppts, it subsequently added modestly to growth in Q2, circa 0.2ppts. If we omit both factors from our assessment (and thereby focus on domestic final demand, DFD), we see a robust, enduring underlying growth trend. Annualised DFD growth in 2015 averages out at 2.7% \u2013 or 3.3% if we focus solely on the past six months, when the weather was more favourable.<\/p>\n

On the whole, stripping away the impact of inventories and net exports, the past two years have seen a material improvement in the growth trend. This acceleration has primarily been the result of stronger consumption growth, particularly within the services sub-sector and in housing construction. Given the ongoing improvement in the labour market and credit availability as well as robust consumer confidence, this trend should endure into 2016.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Construction spending is the key.<\/p>\n

\"Construction<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in Q3, according to advance estimate https:\/\/t.co\/vWMdoOL9TA pic.twitter.com\/PFNZ7lXa8D — St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed) October 29, 2015 From Elliot Clarke at Westpac: In assessing the strength and persistence of US growth, it is important to recognise the impact that inventories and net exports continue to have on … <\/p>\n

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GDP is made up of six components and they are not going well on balance: government consumption is strong and likely to stay that way; government investment is peaking as the NBN rolls off and infrastructure starts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23000,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/02\/australia-q3-gdp\/","url_meta":{"origin":12474,"position":1},"title":"Australia Q3 GDP","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 2, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"From Andrew Hanlan at Westpac: Output increased by 3.3% in the quarter.....well above the market consensus (2.5%). Over the year, activity is still down by 3.8%, after the recession in the first half of 2020, which saw output fall by 0.3% in March and slump by 7.0% in June associated\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61935,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/10\/australia-cautiously-pessimistic\/","url_meta":{"origin":12474,"position":2},"title":"Australia: “cautiously pessimistic”","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 10, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The ASX 200 threatens a new high But consumer sentiment is low Business conditions are weak Commodity exports are slowing, and so is economic growth ASX 200 earnings are likely to follow The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 8600. Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but the earnings\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4597,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/06\/12\/australia-gdp-growth-is-not-real\/","url_meta":{"origin":12474,"position":3},"title":"Australia: GDP growth is not real","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 12, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Mark Graph: Table 5 of the national accounts includes the implicit price deflators (IPD) for each term in the expenditure equation for GDP....the big deflationary item was exports.... So we get to the heart of the anomaly: largely because we exported a touch less in volume terms (in Q1 2012\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14632,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/08\/wider-trade-gap-adds-to-economys-worries\/","url_meta":{"origin":12474,"position":4},"title":"Wider trade gap adds to economy’s worries","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 8, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Jens Meyer and Patrick Commins: A surprise blow-out in the October trade deficit has raised questions about the predicted rebound in economic growth, following the first contraction in GDP in five years. Instead of shrinking as predicted, Australia's trade gap widened 20 per cent to $1.54 billion as growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":58853,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/31\/gdp-gradually-slowing\/","url_meta":{"origin":12474,"position":5},"title":"GDP gradually slowing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 31, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Real GDP growth slowed slightly to 2.66% over the twelve months ending in Q3, compared to 3.04% for the previous quarter. Real quarterly growth is essentially unchanged at 0.70% (2.8% annualized) in Q3. Nominal GDP growth (gray below) slowed to 4.94% for the four quarters ending in Q3. Ten-year Treasury\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-realgdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-realgdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-realgdp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12474","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12474"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12474\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}