{"id":12469,"date":"2015-10-29T03:14:24","date_gmt":"2015-10-29T07:14:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12469"},"modified":"2015-10-29T03:14:24","modified_gmt":"2015-10-29T07:14:24","slug":"iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter\/","title":{"rendered":"Iron ore headed for the smelter"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg News<\/a> quotes Zhu Jimin, deputy head of the China Iron & Steel Association, representing major steel producers, at their quarterly briefing on Wednesday: <\/p>\n

\n“Production cuts are slower than the contraction in demand, therefore oversupply is worsening.”<\/p>\n

“China’s steel demand evaporated at unprecedented speed as the nation’s economic growth slowed,” Zhu said. “As demand quickly contracted, steel mills are lowering prices in competition to get contracts.”\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Little wonder that bulk commodity prices are falling sharply.<\/p>\n

\"RBA:<\/p>\n

Australian producers have been ramping up production to compensate for lower prices.<\/p>\n

\"RBA:<\/p>\n

But with further production due to come on line, the market looks ready for a meltdown. This from David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Yes, China is still shutting in supply and is on track for 270 million tonnes this year but it’s not going to drop enough in the future (at the very best down to 200mt) as Roy Hill, Sino, Anglo, Vale and India (and possibly Tonkolili as well) continue the great ramp up, adding another 200mt plus in the next two years even as Chinese steel production keeps falling at 2-3% per year, taking 40mt per annum out of demand….. the total seaborne iron ore market is about to peak and then shrink….<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index is testing its 2008 low. Breach appears likely and would offer a target of 1700*.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 2200 – ( 2700 – 2200 ) = 1700<\/p>\n

North America<\/h2>\n

The S&P 500 respected support at 2050 and is headed for a test of the previous high at 2130 on the back of strong earnings performance<\/a>. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure but expect strong resistance at 2130. Reversal below 2050 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1870.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1870 ) = 2130<\/p>\n

A declining CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates market risk is easing.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

NYSE short sales<\/a> remain subdued.<\/p>\n

\"NYSE<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly headed for a test of 18300, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow rising steeply.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX 60 continues to test stubborn resistance at 825. Weak 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, indicates the market remains bearish. Breakout would signal an advance to 900, but reversal below the former primary support level at 800 is as likely and would warn of another decline.<\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 775 – ( 825 – 775 ) = 725<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 11000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above the descending trendline would suggest another test of the previous high at 12400. Expect stubborn resistance, however, and reversal below 10000 would warn of another decline.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

The Footsie is similarly testing resistance at 6500. Breakout above the descending trendline would suggest another test of the previous high at 7100. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 6250 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 6000.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

The Shanghai Composite Index continues to test resistance at 3500. Respect is likely and would indicate a re-test of government-backed support at 3000.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is retracing to test support at 22500. Respect would indicate a rally to 24000, but failure remains as likely and would test primary support at 21000. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate (long-term) buying pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Hang<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing resistance at 19000. Breakout would signal another test of 21000. Respect is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 17000.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 19000 + ( 19000 – 17000 ) = 21000<\/p>\n

India’s Sensex encountered resistance at 27500. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate long-term buyiong pressure. Expect another test of 26500 but respect is likely and would indicate continuation of the rally. Reversal below 26500 would warn of another (primary) decline.<\/p>\n

\"SENSEX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 25000 – ( 27500 – 25000 ) = 22500<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

The ASX 200 is retracing to test medium-term support between 5200 and 5300. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below its rising trendline indicates (medium-term) selling pressure; decline below zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of 5200 would warn of another test of primary support at 5000. Recovery above the descending trendline is unlikely at this stage, but would suggest another test of 6000.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 4600<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg News quotes Zhu Jimin, deputy head of the China Iron & Steel Association, representing major steel producers, at their quarterly briefing on Wednesday: “Production cuts are slower than the contraction in demand, therefore oversupply is worsening.” “China’s steel demand evaporated at unprecedented speed as the nation’s economic growth slowed,” Zhu said. “As demand quickly … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Iron ore headed for the smelter”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41,43,12,17,57,33,34],"tags":[64,251,290,507,663,947,1113,1481,1644,1904,1905,2478,2535,3010,3100,3238,3503],"class_list":["post-12469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-india-singapore-countries-regions","category-japan-korea","category-stock-markets","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-australia","tag-bse-sensex","tag-china","tag-dax","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-ftse-100","tag-hang-seng-index","tag-iron-ore-exports","tag-iron-ore-prices","tag-nikkei-225","tag-nyse-short-sales","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-steel-production","tag-tsx-60"],"yoast_head":"\nIron ore headed for the smelter - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iron ore headed for the smelter - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bloomberg News quotes Zhu Jimin, deputy head of the China Iron & Steel Association, representing major steel producers, at their quarterly briefing on Wednesday: “Production cuts are slower than the contraction in demand, therefore oversupply is worsening.” “China’s steel demand evaporated at unprecedented speed as the nation’s economic growth slowed,” Zhu said. “As demand quickly … Continue reading "Iron ore headed for the smelter"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-10-29T07:14:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-29-commodity-bulk-prices.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Iron ore headed for the smelter\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-10-29T07:14:24+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter\/\"},\"wordCount\":658,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-29-commodity-bulk-prices.png\",\"keywords\":[\"$VIX\",\"ASX 200\",\"Australia\",\"BSE Sensex\",\"China\",\"DAX\",\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\",\"FTSE 100\",\"Hang Seng Index\",\"iron ore exports\",\"iron ore prices\",\"Nikkei 225\",\"NYSE short sales\",\"S&P 500\",\"Shanghai Composite Index\",\"steel production\",\"TSX 60\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia & NZ\",\"China & HK\",\"Commodities\",\"India & Singapore\",\"Japan & Korea\",\"Stock Markets\",\"UK & Europe\",\"US & Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/iron-ore-headed-for-the-smelter\/\",\"name\":\"Iron ore headed for the smelter - 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They held a video discussion with BHP who confirmed their production remained strong, with no major weather interruptions to operations. Atilla Widnell, managing director\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4397,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/20\/is-chinas-demand-for-iron-ore-real\/","url_meta":{"origin":12469,"position":1},"title":"Chinese economics: Is iron ore demand real?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 20, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Reuters video: Nicholas Zhu, ANZ Bank head of macro-economic data Asia, examines iron ore stockpiles at Qingdao port. [gigya src='http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/resources_v2\/flash\/video_embed.swf?videoId=235214214&edition=BETAUS' type='application\/x-shockwave-flash' allowfullscreen='true' allowScriptAccess='always' width='460' height='259' wmode='transparent'] Hat tip to Houses and Holes","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25709,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/09\/china-to-crack-down-on-commodity-speculators\/","url_meta":{"origin":12469,"position":2},"title":"Commodities: China to crack down on speculators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"From Mining.com: China will take steps to stabilise raw material prices and strengthen supervision of the market after a spike in prices for commodities such as steel, nonferrous metals and petrochemicals, the country\u2019s industry ministry said on Tuesday. Rising commodity prices \u2013 driven by higher raw material costs, a recovery\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1561,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/25\/iron-ore-crash-macrobusiness-com-au\/","url_meta":{"origin":12469,"position":3},"title":"Iron ore crash – macrobusiness.com.au","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 25, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot iron ore prices have shed 19 percent so far this month in a sell-off largely fueled by slower construction steel demand in China, the world\u2019s biggest buyer of imported iron ore at around 400 million tonnes a year. In Europe, a more important market for Vale than Rio, steel\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25738,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/12\/iron-ore-bull-bear-outlooks\/","url_meta":{"origin":12469,"position":4},"title":"Iron ore: Bull & bear outlooks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore prices are soaring but there are widely differing views about how long this will last. From Investing.com: Ark Invest\u2019s Cathie Wood, whose ARK Innovation ETF was the top-performing U.S. equity fund last year.....said in a webinar Tuesday that she sees spiking commodity prices as a sign that businesses\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":56741,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/16\/harsh-winter-for-iron-ore\/","url_meta":{"origin":12469,"position":5},"title":"“Harsh winter” for iron ore","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 16, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore has broken support at $100 per tonne, signaling a decline to $80. China\u2019s largest steelmaker warns of a \u201charsh winter\u201d ahead for the industry: BEIJING \u2013 Chinese steelmakers slashed output in July as woeful demand forced steep cuts on an industry contending with a collapse in margins. Steel\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Base Metals"","block_context":{"text":"Base Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/base-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Iron Ore","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-15-fe.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-15-fe.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-15-fe.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12469"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12469\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}