{"id":12410,"date":"2015-10-15T21:54:07","date_gmt":"2015-10-16T01:54:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12410"},"modified":"2015-10-15T21:54:07","modified_gmt":"2015-10-16T01:54:07","slug":"gold-breaks-trendline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/15\/gold-breaks-trendline\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold breaks trendline"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Treasury yields remain weak, with the 10-year yield testing support at 2.0 percent. Declining interest rates improve demand for gold but a subdued inflation outlook has the opposite effect.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" title=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-16-tnx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Fed has stopped QE, with total assets leveling off around $4.5 Trillion. Expansion of excess bank reserves on deposit with the Fed, which softened the inflationary impact of QE, halted a little earlier.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"313\" alt=\"Fed Total Assets compared to Excess Reserves\" title=\"Fed Total Assets compared to Excess Reserves\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-16-fedassets.png?resize=525%2C313&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The latter is contracting at a slightly faster pace, so the net effect (change in Total Assets minus Excess Reserves) remains stimulatory. Reversal below zero on the chart below would warn of a contraction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"313\" alt=\"Fed Total Assets minus Excess Reserves\" title=\"Fed Total Assets minus Excess Reserves\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-16-fednetassets.png?resize=525%2C313&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Dollar is weakening in line with interest rates, with the Dollar Index headed for a test of support at 93. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum crossed below zero, warning of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at 93 would confirm.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" title=\"Dollar Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-16-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A weaker Dollar would drive up gold. Spot gold broke its long-term descending trendline and is headed for a test of resistance at $1200\/ounce. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would suggest a primary up-trend, but it would be prudent to wait for confirmation from a trough above zero and breakout above $1200.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" title=\"Spot Gold\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-16-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1200 &#8211; ( 1400 &#8211; 1200 ) = 1000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Treasury yields remain weak, with the 10-year yield testing support at 2.0 percent. Declining interest rates improve demand for gold but a subdued inflation outlook has the opposite effect. The Fed has stopped QE, with total assets leveling off around $4.5 Trillion. Expansion of excess bank reserves on deposit with the Fed, which softened the &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/15\/gold-breaks-trendline\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Gold breaks trendline&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,9,35],"tags":[70,1073,1313,1355,2827,3204],"class_list":["post-12410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-dollar-index","tag-excess-reserves","tag-fed-total-assets","tag-qe","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold breaks trendline - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold breaks trendline - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Treasury yields remain weak, with the 10-year yield testing support at 2.0 percent. 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Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\",\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"ColinTwiggs\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/colin58s\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Gold breaks trendline - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Gold breaks trendline - the patient investor","og_description":"Treasury yields remain weak, with the 10-year yield testing support at 2.0 percent. 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Apart from record central bank purchases of bullion and a weakening Chinese Yuan, real long-term interest rates are declining. The chart below highlights the inverse relationship between gold and real long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury yield minus CPI YoY%). When LT interest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19315,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/23\/golds-hidden-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":12410,"position":1},"title":"Gold&#8217;s hidden correction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 23, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"There is a lot going on in global financial markets, with a Dollar\/Eurodollar shortage forcing the Fed to intervene in the repo market. The Fed will not, on pain of death, call this QE. But it is. The only difference is that the Fed is purchasing short-term Treasury bills rather\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20614,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/30\/gold-4\/","url_meta":{"origin":12410,"position":2},"title":"Gold, QE and the Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 30, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed's balance sheet reached $7.1 trillion on Wednesday, May 27th, expanding by $2.94 trillion since the beginning of March, while MZM money stock ballooned by $3.59 trillion. Excess bank reserves on deposit at the Fed expanded by $1.75T over a similar period, allowing for rapid expansion of the money\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":62724,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/15\/qt-with-a-twist\/","url_meta":{"origin":12410,"position":3},"title":"QT with a Twist","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 15, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the Fed is near the end of QT. However, the Fed continues to intervene in the Treasury market, increasing its holdings of long-term bonds to suppress yields. Bonds remain in a secular bear market. Gold and silver will likely continue to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-14-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-14-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-14-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16261,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/12\/no-fed-squeeze-in-sight\/","url_meta":{"origin":12410,"position":4},"title":"No Fed Squeeze in Sight","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 12, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"In January I warned that the Fed's normalization plan, which will shrink its balance sheet at the rate of $100 billion in 2018 and $200 billion a year thereafter, would cause Treasury yields to rise and the Dollar to weaken. 10-Year Treasury yields are now testing resistance at 3.0 percent.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11035,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/01\/qe-the-end-is-nigh\/","url_meta":{"origin":12410,"position":5},"title":"QE: The end is nigh?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 1, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"I have read a number of predictions recently as to how stocks will collapse into a bear market when quantitative easing ends. The red line on the graph below shows how the Fed expanded its balance sheet by $3.5 trillion between 2008 and 2014, injecting new money into the system\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Assets and Excess Reserves on Deposit","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-01-fedassets-reserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-01-fedassets-reserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-01-fedassets-reserves.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12410","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12410"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12410\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}