{"id":12372,"date":"2015-10-01T02:55:19","date_gmt":"2015-10-01T06:55:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12372"},"modified":"2015-10-01T02:55:19","modified_gmt":"2015-10-01T06:55:19","slug":"gold-and-treasury-yields-decline-as-inflation-weakens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/01\/gold-and-treasury-yields-decline-as-inflation-weakens\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold and Treasury yields decline as inflation weakens"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>US inflation. Core CPI is hovering below 2.0 percent but the 5-year inflation breakeven (5-year Treasury yield minus TIPS yield) suggests that inflation will fall. The recent slow-down in average hourly manufacturing earnings growth (production and non-supervisory employees) may just be statistical noise, but decline of either of these signals below 1.0% p.a. would be cause for concern.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"313\" alt=\"5 Year Inflation Breakeven\" title=\"5 Year Inflation Breakeven\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-inflation.png?resize=525%2C313&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Treasury yields remain weak, with the 10-year yield testing support between 1.85 and 2.0 percent.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" title=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-tnx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Dollar Index continues to range between 93 and 98. Falling inflation would favor an upward breakout. But flight to safety could drive the Dollar up (and yields downward). The biggest factor that may the Dollar down (and yields up), however, would be a Chinese sell-off of foreign reserves (largely Treasury investments)  &mdash; to support the Yuan and\/or stimulate their economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" title=\"Dollar Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Spot gold is likely to test primary support between $1080 and $1100 per ounce. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, with peaks below zero, signals a strong down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of $1000\/ounce*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" title=\"Spot Gold\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1200 &#8211; ( 1400 &#8211; 1200 ) = 1000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US inflation. Core CPI is hovering below 2.0 percent but the 5-year inflation breakeven (5-year Treasury yield minus TIPS yield) suggests that inflation will fall. The recent slow-down in average hourly manufacturing earnings growth (production and non-supervisory employees) may just be statistical noise, but decline of either of these signals below 1.0% p.a. would be &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/01\/gold-and-treasury-yields-decline-as-inflation-weakens\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Gold and Treasury yields decline as inflation weakens&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,9,35],"tags":[70,315,1073,1828,3204],"class_list":["post-12372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-average-hourly-earnings-growth","tag-dollar-index","tag-inflation","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold and Treasury yields decline as inflation weakens - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold and Treasury yields decline as inflation weakens - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US inflation. 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But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5-Year Breakeven Rate, Core CPI and Growth in Hourly Manufacturing Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11795,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":12372,"position":1},"title":"Gold, inflation and the Dollar","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 12, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The (5-year) inflation breakeven (Treasury yield - TIPS) recovered from the oil price fall to post 1.66% on May 8. Growth in average hourly earnings (manufacturing - production and non-supervisory employees) also recovered to 1.49% at the end of April. The stronger inflation outlook lifted the yield on 10-year Treasury\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Precious Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5-Year Inflation Breakeven","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13789,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/26\/low-inflation-and-a-stronger-dollar-indicate-weak-gold-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":12372,"position":2},"title":"Low inflation and a stronger dollar indicate weak gold","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 26, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth in hourly manufacturing earnings has climbed above the Fed target of 2.0 percent, while core CPI continues to track near the target. But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5-Year Breakeven Rate, Core CPI and Growth in Hourly Manufacturing Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24929,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/04\/03\/quick-gold-snapshot\/","url_meta":{"origin":12372,"position":3},"title":"Quick Gold snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 3, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot Gold respected support at $1670\/ounce. Follow-through above $1750 would signal a test of the upper trend channel. 10-Year Treasury yields are steady at 1.71%, while the inflation breakeven rate continues its climb, reaching 2.36%, with the real yield holding at -0.65%. The Dollar Index weakened slightly but is still\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10215,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/02\/gold-rallies-as-inflation-expectations-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":12372,"position":4},"title":"Gold rallies as inflation expectations rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 2, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Overview: Treasury yields are recovering Inflation expectations rise The Dollar weakens Gold rallies Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes found support at 2.50 percent. Recovery above 2.65 would suggest the correction is over, offering a medium-term target of 2.80 and long-term of 3.00 percent. 13-Week\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-03-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-03-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-03-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50829,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/06\/crude-oil-and-gold-twin-attack-on-the-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":12372,"position":5},"title":"Crude oil and Gold twin attack on the Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 6, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude oil and Gold continue their twin attack on the Dollar. Rising 10-year yields reflect increased risk of inflation as a strong BLS jobs report reflects robust economic growth and a tight labor market. Brent crude climbed to $91.15 per barrel, headed for our medium-term target of $96. Gold broke\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-05-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-05-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-05-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12372"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12372\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}