{"id":1229,"date":"2015-10-14T05:20:45","date_gmt":"2015-10-14T05:20:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1229"},"modified":"2015-10-14T05:20:45","modified_gmt":"2015-10-14T05:20:45","slug":"bear-market-brief-respite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/14\/bear-market-brief-respite\/","title":{"rendered":"Bear market – brief respite"},"content":{"rendered":"

North America<\/h2>\n

The S&P 500 is retracing to test short-term support at 2000. Failure would warn of another test of support at 1870, while respect would indicate continuation of the bear rally to test resistance at the high of 2130. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates (medium-term) buying pressure. The market remains bearish, however, having broken primary support at 2000, and respect of 2130 would warn of another test of support at 1870.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1870 ) = 2130<\/p>\n

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 indicates market risk is easing. We need to remain vigilant for the next few weeks. At least until we see a peak below 20.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

NYSE short sales<\/a> remain subdued.<\/p>\n

\"NYSE<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average similarly retraced to test support at 17000 on the weekly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero indicates buying pressure. Respect of support would again indicate a rally to test the previous high (18300), failure would warn of another test of primary support at 16000.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX 60 respected resistance at 825. Reversal below 800 would warn of another decline; breach of 775 would confirm. Weak 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, signals the market is still bearish.<\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 775 – ( 825 – 775 ) = 725<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

Germany’s DAX remains weak, with the index retracing to test support at 10000 and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero. Reversal below 10000 is likely and would warn of another decline; follow-through below 9500 would confirm. Recovery above 10500 is unlikely but would indicate continuation of the bear rally.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

The Footsie is more resilient, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero. The index respected resistance at 6500 and is retracing to test short-term support at 6250. Respect is more likely and would suggest another test of 6500. Reversal below 6000 is unlikely, but would confirm the primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

The Shanghai Composite Index rallied off government-enforced support at 3000. But the rally is likely to be short-lived and recovery above 3500 unlikely.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is retracing to test support at 22500 after a similar bear rally. Respect of 22500 would indicate another test of 24000, but breach of support is more likely and would warn of another test of primary support at 21000.<\/p>\n

\"Hang<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 encountered resistance at 18500. Gradual decline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests a secondary correction, with long-term buying pressure continuing. Recovery above 19000 would indicate another test of 21000.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 19000 + ( 19000 – 17000 ) = 21000<\/p>\n

India’s Sensex is retracing to test support at 26500. The 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, indicates strong buying pressure and respect of support at 26500 would indicate continuation of the rally. Reversal below 26000 is unlikely, but would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"SENSEX\"<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

The ASX 200 retreated from resistance at 5250\/5300. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, indicates medium-term buying pressure. A higher trough above 5000 would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 5300 would signal continuation of the bear rally to test the descending trendline. The bear market continues despite recent support and breach of 5000 would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 4600<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

\nBeing powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren’t.\n<\/p>\n

~ Margaret Thatcher<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

North America The S&P 500 is retracing to test short-term support at 2000. Failure would warn of another test of support at 1870, while respect would indicate continuation of the bear rally to test resistance at the high of 2130. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates (medium-term) buying pressure. The market remains bearish, … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Bear market – brief respite”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,507,947,1113,1481,1644,2478,2535,3010,3100,3503],"class_list":["post-1229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-bse-sensex","tag-dax","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-ftse-100","tag-hang-seng-index","tag-nikkei-225","tag-nyse-short-sales","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-tsx-60"],"yoast_head":"\nBear market - brief respite - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bear market - brief respite - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"North America The S&P 500 is retracing to test short-term support at 2000. Failure would warn of another test of support at 1870, while respect would indicate continuation of the bear rally to test resistance at the high of 2130. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates (medium-term) buying pressure. 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The danger is that you avoid the steam engine but get hit by the caboose when you step back on the tracks. It is safer to wait until the anxiety subsides. North America The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13788,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/22\/how-we-got-here\/","url_meta":{"origin":1229,"position":1},"title":"How we got here","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 22, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"If we don't learn from the mistakes of the past we will be destined to repeat them (George Santayana). Looking back over the last three decades gives an inkling as to what went wrong and to the level of economic mismanagement. International trade is a zero sum game: what one\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Current Accounts China & Japan","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-22-currentaccount-china-japan.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-22-currentaccount-china-japan.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-22-currentaccount-china-japan.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13797,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/26\/markets-lack-enthusiasm\/","url_meta":{"origin":1229,"position":2},"title":"Markets lack enthusiasm","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 26, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 hesitated at 2100, short candle ranges indicating a lack of interest ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Lower 21-day Twiggs Money Flow likewise indicates a lack of enthusiasm. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely but would warn of another test of primary support at 1870. Expect strong resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-26-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13784,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/09\/bear-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":1229,"position":3},"title":"Bear Rally","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 9, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"North America Construction activity continues to advance. The graph below shows Total US Construction Spending adjusted for inflation (Core CPI). Spending is substantially below the 2004 to 2007 property bubble but equates to the earlier Dotcom era. The steep rise suggests that rate increases will be necessary to prevent another\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Construction Spending adjusted by Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-08-construction.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-08-construction.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-08-construction.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13796,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/19\/cement-and-electricity-not-there-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":1229,"position":4},"title":"Cement and electricity – not there yet","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 19, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Buying looks a lot more robust than last week and more US-led gains are likely. Electricity & Cement Production An examination of electricity and cement production shows the US recovery has plenty of scope for further improvement. Cement production recovered from its dramatic fall in 2008 but remains at the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Cement Production","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-19-cement.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-19-cement.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-19-cement.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13795,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/03\/nasdaq-bearish-divergence\/","url_meta":{"origin":1229,"position":5},"title":"Nasdaq bearish divergence","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 3, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 found resistance at 2100, indicating a continued lack of enthusiasm. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow flags medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 2000 would warn of another test of primary support at 1870. Upward breakout now appears less likely, but would signal a fresh advance to 2400*. *\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1229"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1229\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}