{"id":12207,"date":"2015-08-19T01:02:15","date_gmt":"2015-08-19T05:02:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12207"},"modified":"2015-08-19T01:02:15","modified_gmt":"2015-08-19T05:02:15","slug":"currency-manipulation-and-its-distortion-of-free-trade-a-b-laffer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/19\/currency-manipulation-and-its-distortion-of-free-trade-a-b-laffer\/","title":{"rendered":"Currency Manipulation and its Distortion of Free Trade | A B Laffer"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Extract from Arthur B. Laffer&#8217;s paper on currency manipulation:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;.Successful currency manipulation inhibits the exchange rate from acting as an automatic stabilizer to macroeconomic events, and thereby leads to growth and trade imbalances. Currency manipulation has therefore, in part, inhibited the world from fully recovering from the financial crisis. For instance, real growth has been tepid at best for developed countries that do not intervene in the foreign exchange market, while countries that have been identified as currency interventionists have experienced a much steadier pace of recovery from the financial crisis&mdash;this has been dubbed as the two-speed global recovery. <\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"352\" alt=\"GDP growth rates\" title=\"GDP growth rates\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-19-worldgdp.png?resize=525%2C352&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The two-speed recovery has shown, in part, that persistent currency undervaluation has benefited the currency manipulators at the expense of countries allowing the flexible adjustment of exchange rates, since the latters\u2019 export-related activities must quickly respond to the external balances caused by trading partners\u2019 currency devaluations. As of 2012, the scope of currency manipulation is estimated to be <strong>approximately $1.5 trillion per year<\/strong>, with about 60 percent of these flows channeling into dollar assets. Moreover, the impact of currency manipulation has potentially dampened the U.S. current account by about 4 percent of GDP in 2012, which was approximately the size of the U.S. output gap in the corresponding year. While providing an exact number of U.S. jobs lost due directly to currency manipulation is tricky, it is likely that millions of jobs in the U.S. were lost as a result of current account imbalances that were generated, in part, by currency manipulation. <\/p>\n<p>These spillover effects would likely disappear if exchange rates were liberalized to better exhibit market fundamentals, which would also potentially improve welfare in undervalued currencies\u2019 economies by improving domestic demand. In fact, further movement toward freely floating exchange rates and the removal of capital account restrictions will help rebalance global growth, which in turn will reduce financial and economic risk. Moreover, research has found that future financial crises can be, in part, predicted by large current account imbalances as such distortions suggest the misallocation of capital. In fact, earlier studies from Laffer Associates confirm this link between current account imbalances and financial crises helped explain the Asian currency crisis in the late 1990\u2019s. <\/p>\n<p>Considering the employment and economic impact of currency manipulation on the United States and given that the United States is negotiating a free trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), to avoid further harm and ensure the agreement\u2019s benefits aren\u2019t undermined by countries that have a history of manipulating their currencies, it is vital that the TPP include defined monetary policy standards and a means to identify currency manipulators and enforce violations&#8230;..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=2&amp;ved=0CCQQFjABahUKEwiMwP6wibTHAhWi3aYKHYp3D-0&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.laffercenter.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F12%2FLaffer-Center-Template_Currency-Manipulation-Paper_Final-Draft.pdf&amp;ei=YubTVYyHC6K7mwWK773oDg&amp;usg=AFQjCNFfy3Rzr5ILe4hC6JIY7P8BMBOz9g&amp;sig2=JfHL4x94PYcdCYeAh6CfLA&amp;bvm=bv.99804247,d.dGY&amp;cad=rja\" target=\"_blank\">Currency Manipulation and its Distortion of Free Trade | A B Laffer<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Extract from Arthur B. Laffer&#8217;s paper on currency manipulation: &#8230;.Successful currency manipulation inhibits the exchange rate from acting as an automatic stabilizer to macroeconomic events, and thereby leads to growth and trade imbalances. Currency manipulation has therefore, in part, inhibited the world from fully recovering from the financial crisis. For instance, real growth has been &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/19\/currency-manipulation-and-its-distortion-of-free-trade-a-b-laffer\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Currency Manipulation and its Distortion of Free Trade | A B Laffer&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,7,34],"tags":[232,574,919,1471],"class_list":["post-12207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-forex","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-asian-currency-crisis","tag-capital-account-restrictions","tag-currency-manipulation","tag-freely-floating-exchange-rates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Currency Manipulation and its Distortion of Free Trade | A B Laffer - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Currency Manipulation and its Distortion of Free Trade | A B Laffer - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Extract from Arthur B. Laffer&#8217;s paper on currency manipulation: &#8230;.Successful currency manipulation inhibits the exchange rate from acting as an automatic stabilizer to macroeconomic events, and thereby leads to growth and trade imbalances. Currency manipulation has therefore, in part, inhibited the world from fully recovering from the financial crisis. 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Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon, at Peterson Institute for International Economics, published December 2012: More than 20 countries have increased their aggregate foreign exchange reserves and other official foreign assets by an annual average of nearly $1 trillion in recent years.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12223,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/22\/chinas-dangerous-currency-manipulation\/","url_meta":{"origin":12207,"position":1},"title":"China&#8217;s dangerous currency manipulation","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 22, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"I am surprised at John Mauldin's view in his latest newsletter Playing the Chinese Trump Card: ....This whole myth that China has purposely kept their currency undervalued needs to be completely excised from the economic discussion. First off, the two largest currency-manipulating central banks currently at work in the world\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Foreign Reserves","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-19-fxreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-19-fxreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-19-fxreserves.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11531,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/09\/sectoral-imbalances-the-purple-jobs-eater\/","url_meta":{"origin":12207,"position":2},"title":"Sectoral imbalances: Where have all the jobs gone?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 9, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Great post on Twitter from Naufal Sanaullah depicting US sectoral balances using UK economist Wynne Godley's analytical framework. The key to understanding Godley's analysis is that the sum of the four sectors is always zero. If one sector runs a deficit, it must be funded by a surplus in another\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Output Gap: Wikipedia","src":"http:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/thumb\/0\/0a\/Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png\/250px-Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":16148,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/03\/27\/trumps-trade-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":12207,"position":3},"title":"Trump&#8217;s Trade War","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 27, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"First, let me correct the implication that this is a trade war started by Donald Trump. It is not. His is only the first significant response by the US in a trade war initiated by China more than a decade ago, in the early 2000s. In 2011 I warned of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;International Trade&quot;","block_context":{"text":"International Trade","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/international-trade\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Foreign Direct Investment in US","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/foreign-inv.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/foreign-inv.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/foreign-inv.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9898,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/26\/chinas-export-dilemna\/","url_meta":{"origin":12207,"position":4},"title":"China&#8217;s export dilemna","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth in value of exports from China has slowed to single figures since 2012. It will be difficult sustain current GDP growth if this trend continues. The Harper Petersen index of shipping rates for container vessels, the Harpex, remains near its 2010 low, reflecting continued weakness in Asian manufactured goods\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Exports","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13722,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/26\/chinas-export-dilemna-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":12207,"position":5},"title":"China&#8217;s export dilemna","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth in value of exports from China has slowed to single figures since 2012. It will be difficult sustain current GDP growth if this trend continues. The Harper Petersen index of shipping rates for container vessels, the Harpex, remains near its 2010 low, reflecting continued weakness in Asian manufactured goods\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Exports","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-26-china-exports.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12207","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12207"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12207\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12207"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12207"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12207"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}